Quick Slant: TNF - Penix Redux
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
It’s a strange thing to sit in a patch of grass surrounded by 70,000 spectators. A surface with that much traffic isn’t meant for sitting. It feels like stopping in the middle of a busy two-lane road. But I had to sit.
I already know what it is. I've had unwanted experiences with this sort of thing. I didn’t feel the pop this time. Tre’von landed on me with my leg folded underneath. When a 200-pound man lands on you at that speed, you don’t hear much; you feel vibrations. But once he lifted off, I could tell something was loose, like a snap on your pants giving way.
I stood in denial. Took a few steps. Three, four, five. Each confirmed what I already knew. Finally, my brain caught up with my body. I reached down, tested my knee, and felt that familiar, untethered glide under my thumb and forefinger.
So I sat. That’s what you’re supposed to do. Then my emotions took their turn.
Again? Really?
Four seasons at Indiana. Four false starts. Two healthy years at Washington. The National Title game. The surprise draft selection. All those critics, but also the Atlanta fans who finally had something to hope for. And I know I can do this job. There are only 32 of them in the world, and I’ve got one. And I’m so freaking close to making it stick. And now, I’ve torn my ACL again.
Great.
I throw my helmet in disgust. The trainers arrive and ask questions. I answer, but my mind keeps racing. What are the commentators saying? Are they writing me off – a this kid will never be healthy sort of thing? What if Kirk comes in and kills it? Could my days in Atlanta actually be numbered?
I don’t hear much of what they’re saying, but I nod at the trainers and stand. My leg stays surprisingly straight, as long as I move slowly. I limp toward the sideline and look down at the thick brace on my right knee. The knee I was protecting.
The other one.
Time accelerates. My focus turns inward, then forward, then explodes into determination.
Late November, surgery. December, ice, swelling, crutches, learning to bend the thing again. January, weights and endless repetitions. February, walking without thinking about it. March, cleared to throw. Spring, footwork and seven-on-seven. Summer, planting, cutting, testing the knee. August, eleven-on-eleven.
And here we are. September, Lambeau Field. The hallowed red brick and green glass. The ghosts of football past. My ghosts. Colliding hopes. Dueling desperation. Two teams already feeling the heat, ducking and backing toward the ropes. Two teams that need a W in the worst way.
And me, trying to stay clear-headed. Trying to identify the Mike, read the safeties, climb the pocket, and keep my eyes downfield instead of watching bodies hurl, careless as hail, toward my plant foot. Trying to trust my knee. Save my career. Justify their faith. Rescue a season. Trying to bring myself back from the dead and take Atlanta with me.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
Over/Under: 43.5
Through two games, the Falcons have scored just 16 points and surrendered 54. Based on Pythagorean Wins, Atlanta looks like the worst team in football. The Packers are 1-1 despite being outscored 56-42, putting them 2.4 wins ahead of expectation. Of course, we're extrapolating two games over a 17-game season, so these figures are still quite volatile, and we would expect them to improve with Michael Penix Jr. under center rather than QBs Cooper Rush or Jack Strand.
The 43.5-point over/under suggests a fairly modest scoring environment, although Penix's return changes the math. How much? It's complicated. While he's a better QB than Rush, some have romanticized his return as some great salve for Atlanta; Penix isn't a perfect QB, though. And he's had no live action since last fall, so the reintegration process isn't likely to be instant. Atlanta's offense should be better; how much better remains to be seen.
Through two games, the Packers are slightly below average in offensive EPA/play but slightly above average defensively. Atlanta is well below average offensively, although its defense is actually above average in EPA/play allowed.
Green Bay has played quickly through two weeks, averaging 26.4 seconds between snaps in neutral situations, third-fastest in the NFL. The Packers have run 57 offensive plays per 60 minutes (T-21st). The Falcons have run plays at a rate of 29.7 seconds per snap in neutral scripts, almost dead average, and they’ve averaged 63 plays per 60 minutes (T-9th).
The weather should cooperate Thursday. The forecast calls for temperatures around 60° at kickoff, light southeasterly winds around 4–5 mph, and no precipitation.
Falcons Key Injuries: CB A.J. Terrell Jr. (groin) was placed on IR Tuesday, a significant loss for Atlanta's secondary. QB Michael Penix Jr. (knee) practiced fully all week and carries no injury designation for his first start since last November. RB Brian Robinson Jr. (ankle) and RT Jawaan Taylor (rib) practiced fully on Wednesday and are cleared to play.
Packers Key Injuries: WR Jayden Reed (neck) is out after being carted off against the Jets. Starting LG Aaron Banks (knee/toe) is also out. DT Javon Hargrave (knee/concussion) is questionable. The Packers are already without EDGE Micah Parsons (PUP), TE Luke Musgrave (PUP), and RB Josh Jacobs (commissioner's exempt list).
FALCONS
Implied Team Total: 19
The Falcons have been the least efficient offense in football through two weeks, and it hasn't been particularly close. Atlanta ranks last in offensive EPA/play, with the league's worst dropback EPA/play and below-average rushing efficiency. They’ve scored just 16 points, turned the ball over seven times, and remain the only team in football that hasn't reached the red zone. Of course, these results came without Penix.
Atlanta has been the NFL's run-heaviest team relative to expectations, with a PROE of around -14%. The Falcons have run the ball on just over half their offensive plays, although some of this is undoubtedly a response to their difficulties at QB. It remains to be seen how much Penix's return changes the approach, particularly on the road.
Penix’s last NFL action came in 2025, when he averaged 33.6 dropbacks/G (22nd) and 30.7 passing attempts/G (16th). He averaged 220.2 passing yards/G (16th), but his 3.1% passing TD rate ranked 33rd.
As a thrower, Penix posted a 0.096 EPA/CPOE composite (22nd). He was above average in EPA/play, but his CPOE was among the league's lowest.
Penix offers relatively little as a runner. In 2025, he averaged 2.33 rushing attempts/G (28th) and 7.78 rushing yards/G (28th), with a 10.38% rushing FP share (25th). His 13 scrambles ranked 29th. We shouldn’t expect this to improve after another serious leg injury.
Green Bay's defense has been considerably better against the pass than the run through two weeks. The Packers are above average in dropback EPA/play allowed, but below average against the run. They've allowed 28 PPG, though 39 of their 56 points came in the season opener against Minnesota. Last week, Green Bay held the Jets to 17 points and Breece Hall to just 29 rushing yards.
The Packers are operating under new DC Jonathan Gannon, and their coverage tendencies through two weeks are fairly pronounced. Green Bay has played zone 84.8% of the time (7th). They've deployed two-high safeties at the league's second-highest rate (67.1%), with Cover 4 as their primary coverage (27.8%), followed by Cover 3 (22.8%). They blitz at an above-average rate of 30.4%. Overall, the Packers have played some form of quarters coverage at a substantial rate, which could encourage Atlanta to lean into its already run-heavy approach.
The Packers are, of course, without ED Micah Parsons (PUP), while DT Warren Brinson (calf) is out and DT Javon Hargrave (knee/concussion) is questionable. Hargrave's potential absence would further thin the interior defensive line. However, as Hall managers learned last week, we shouldn't assume the rushing matchup is favorable simply because of the personnel losses.
According to Fantasy Points’ Coverage Matchup tool, Penix has a slightly unfavorable matchup based on the types and rates of coverage Green Bay employs (-2.8%). PFF’s personnel-based matchup tool grades Penix’s matchup as fair. Over their last five games, dating back to 2025, the Packers have allowed 17.6 FP/G to opposing QBs (17th).
Penix’s first game back doesn’t look especially favorable, but Green Bay’s recent performance doesn't suggest an impossible assignment either. The bigger uncertainty is Penix himself, who is being thrust into game action without training camp after a long layoff.
Through two games, Atlanta’s target distribution has been unusually RB-heavy. RB Bijan Robinson leads the Falcons with 14 targets (28%), followed by WR Drake London with 10 (20%) and WR Jahan Dotson with eight (16%). No other player has more than four. Robinson, London, and Dotson have combined for 64% of the team’s targets.
Under Kevin Stefanski, the Falcons have used 11-personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) on 56% of their offensive plays, 12-personnel (one RB, two TEs) on 31%, and 13-personnel (one RB, three TEs) on 11%. That’s two or more TEs on 44% of plays, so this isn’t an offense that strictly lives in three-WR sets.
London and Dotson are listed as WR starters, with WRs Olamide Zaccheaus and rookie Zachariah Branch rotating in when more than two WRs are on the field. In two-TE sets, Kyle Pitts and Charlie Woerner are common.
There’s an important Week 2 caveat: Atlanta pulled several starters as the Carolina game got out of hand. Their full-game snap shares understate their intended roles.
The target chart also reflects two games without Penix. Robinson’s involvement looks like the clearest established feature of the offense, but I wouldn’t assume the same distribution among London, Dotson, and the TEs once Penix takes over.
WR Drake London remains Atlanta’s primary fantasy-relevant WR, but the first two games have been ugly. He has 10 targets (18.5% target share), six receptions, and 80 yards, averaging 7.2 PPR/G. His 22% TPRR and 1.78 YPRR are respectable enough, but the Falcons have struggled to sustain drives, and London hasn’t scored, becoming one of the early disappointments in fantasy football.
TE Kyle Pitts’ usage is more concerning. He has four targets, one reception, and 15 yards through two games. His 11% TPRR and 0.41 YPRR are miserable, although – broken record – his 56.9% route participation also took a hit when Atlanta pulled starters against Carolina.
According to the Fantasy Points Coverage Matchup tool, London’s assignment is essentially neutral (-0.1%), based on his 2025 performance against the types and rates of coverage Green Bay employs. Pitts’ is slightly negative (-1.2%).
PFF’s personnel-based matchup tool is considerably more encouraging for London, grading his matchup as great. Pitts draws a good matchup.
Over their last five games, dating back to 2025, the Packers have allowed 29.8 PPR/G to WRs (14th). The Jets’ WRs produced 39.8 PPR against them last week.
Against TEs, Green Bay has been less permissive, allowing 11.1 PPR/G (23rd) over its last five.
The trench battle is pretty neutral, both when Atlanta is passing and rushing. This shouldn’t be a major factor, whether Atlanta drops back or rushes the ball.
Bijan Robinson has been the rare bright spot in Atlanta’s miserable start. Through two games, he ranks fourth among RBs in opportunities, second in targets, first in receiving yards, and seventh in both rushing yards and PPR points.
Brian Robinson is involved, but this isn’t a meaningful fantasy committee. Bijan has 14 of Atlanta’s 52 targets, compared to two for Brian, and the passing-game work gives him a substantial advantage even when the Falcons are chasing points.
The concern isn’t whether Bijan has a role. It’s whether this offense can sustain enough drives to let him capitalize.PFF grades Bijan’s rushing matchup against Green Bay as good.
Over their last five games, dating back to 2025, the Packers have allowed 27.9 PPR/G to RBs, the third-highest total in the league over that span.
Green Bay has allowed 32.2 receiving yards to RBs in their last five games (12th), so it’s an average or slightly favorable matchup. Of course, you’re not sitting Bijan anyway.