Quick Slant: TNF - The Battered Ship Sails West
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Mercifully, for once, the wind is still, the seas are calm, and the air is quiet. All that remains is the thick white smoke of burnt cannon fire, the ringing screech in every man’s ears, and the hammering. The incessant hammering.
The fire is out. Men hang high in the rigging, bending patches into the torn mainsail, soiled with sweat and gunpowder, blood and saltwater. Others work below the waterline, plugging breaches with oakum and driving wooden plugs into the worst of them while the carpenter and his mates shore up shattered frames from within. Day and night, they swing, blistered hands wrapped around worn handles, tired muscles straining with every blow. They haven’t slept since the last siege began, but they toil onward. Rest isn’t an option in the middle of the sea.
Four battles in four weeks. Four defeats. And now Captain Mayfield has been taken. The ship limps onward.
Daniels, the first mate, has assumed command, though many believe him too young and inexperienced to lead a crew in such a weakened state. The next attack will come in four days. Properly repairing the hull and replacing the ruined canvas would take weeks. So the crew works by lantern light, twenty hours a day, trying to ready what remains for the fight ahead.
Daniels acquitted himself well in his first battle as captain, against the men beneath the green and yellow sails who came down from the north. It didn’t matter. The result was the same.
Now, another enemy waits beyond the horizon.
Four engagements. Four defeats. They barely have their lives, let alone a seaworthy ship. They haven’t sunk, but they’re sinking. No single battle has destroyed them. Instead, each has taken something, leaving behind another splintered timber, another torn line, another wound that hasn’t had time to close.
Daniels carries himself with confidence, though nobody knows quite where it comes from. Perhaps he doesn’t know what to do. If so, he gives no indication. He issues orders with alacrity and certainty, as though every answer is obvious.
He came from nowhere. Nobody wanted him. He arrived without status, clout, or pedigree to speak of. But he proved himself better than the men around him, and the captain thought it worth making him his right hand.
Now the battered ship sails west.
And somewhere beyond the smoke, another sail – blue and silver – another fight against a more credible foe. Everything to gain, everything to lose. Without victory, Davy Jones’ Locker awaits.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
Over/Under: 47.5
The Bucs are winless; the Cowboys are 2-2. Based on Pythagorean Wins, both are under expectation thus far, but the Bucs are worst in the league, 6.5 wins below expectation. At that depth, the Bucs could be a decent positive regression candidate under normal circumstances.
The circumstances have, of course, worsened, as the Bucs have lost QB Baker Mayfield to a thumb injury, and UDFA Jalon Daniels has taken the reins. Daniels went 19 of 27 for 148 passing yards, one TD and two picks last week, adding 55 rushing yards – probably better than most would have assumed, but still mediocre.
According to Kalshi, the Buccaneers have the third-highest implied likelihood of earning the first overall pick in the draft. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have playoff aspirations at +2000 to win the Super Bowl according to FanDuel Sportsbook (9th). With the chaos that has befallen the Eagles, Commanders, and Giants, the Cowboys seem to control the NFC East, even if their record hasn’t quite caught up. The Bucs are in more danger than usual, as the other teams in the NFC South have improved.
From a neutral script, the Cowboys have the third-fastest pace of play, averaging a snap every 27.7 seconds, while the Bucs are tied for 28th at 29.8. Averaging 62 plays per 60 minutes, the Bucs are tied for 13th, along with a large group at the league median. The Cowboys have run the most plays per 60 minutes at 66.
The Bucs are above average in EPA per play allowed, but worst in the league in EPA per play. As a result, they are all D and no O. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are the exact opposite, with one of the league's highest-functioning offenses in EPA per play but, yet again, one of the league’s most dysfunctional defenses.
Weather: Thursday night's game will be played indoors at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, eliminating weather concerns.
Buccaneers Key Injuries: Tampa Bay has ruled out QB Baker Mayfield (thumb), leaving Daniels to start again. WR Jalen McMillan (knee) was placed on IR after suffering a PCL sprain against Minnesota. He is expected to miss 6–8 weeks, leaving rookie Ted Hurst as Tampa Bay's likely No. 3 WR behind Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin. Starting S Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), CB Benjamin Morrison (quad), and LB SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot) are also out. Rookie ED Rueben Bain Jr. (groin/shoulder) practiced fully throughout the week and is expected to return.
Cowboys Key Injuries: Starting CB Cobie Durant (hamstring) and LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) have been ruled out, along with OT Drew Shelton (hamstring). Starting G Tyler Smith (thumb) is off the IR and questionable after returning to full participation Wednesday, while WR CeeDee Lamb (thigh) practiced fully and carries no injury designation. WR Jonathan Mingo (illness) is questionable.
BUCCANEERS
Implied Team Total: 19.5
The visiting Bucs have an implied team total of just 19.5, tied for the fourth-lowest total of the week, despite playing against arguably the league’s worst defense. Even with Mayfield, they had the league's worst offense in EPA per play (-.200) and the fourth-worst offensive success rate (36.8%) through the first three weeks. With Daniels, they actually improved against Green Bay last week in both measures. However, they still rank 32nd in offensive EPA per play and 27th in offensive success rate.
They rank 17th in PROE, though that still comes out to -2.07%.
In fewer than two games, Daniels has thrown 30 passes, averaging just 4.9 Y/A. He’s well below a reasonable minimum threshold for dropbacks or attempts, but his 0.168 EPA/play and 2.0% CPOE are near the middle of the pack. He has averaged 3.2 FP/G via rushing, meaning 48.12% of his total fantasy points have come from rushing. His seven scrambles in barely over four quarters of play already rank in the 69th percentile for the season.
The Cowboys’ defense ranks dead last in EPA per dropback allowed and slightly below average in EPA per rush allowed.
Like most teams, the Cowboys run zone more than man coverage (71.4%), though they surrender the second-most FP/DB from zone coverage (0.56). They run single-high coverage on 56.4% of defensive plays (8th). They seldom blitz at 20.5%.
The Cowboys have tried desperately to rework their defense after a dismal 2025 campaign, signing new DC Christian Parker and turning over their personnel through the draft, free agency, and trades. Most recently, the Cowboys acquired CB Joey Porter Jr. from the Steelers, who didn’t allow a reception in limited action last week during his Cowboys debut.
The Cowboys rank as a good defense for a QB to face based on PFF’s personnel-based matchup tool, something that is echoed in the raw fantasy points Dallas has surrendered to QBs in their last five games (25.2, 2nd).
The Cowboys are susceptible to surrendering FP to rushing QBs. In their last five games, they’ve surrendered 44 rushing yards to QBs (1st). They've faced Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jaxson Dart twice during that span – all great rushers – which may skew the data somewhat. Either way, rushing QBs have run on the Cowboys; Daniels is a rushing QB, so he has a good chance to do the same. Daniels seems like a floor play with a decent chance at rushing and a low chance at high passing volume here.
The Bucs have five receiving options with more than 15 targets so far this season: WR Emeka Egbuka (24), TE Cade Otton (23), WR Chris Godwin (18), rookie WR Ted Hurst (16), and RB Bucky Irving (15).
Tampa Bay uses 11 personnel on 73% of its offensive snaps (3rd). This usually means Egbuka, Godwin, Otton, and Hurst, the only three Bucs’ pass-catchers with over 100 routes. Of them, the most common combination is Godwin in the slot (51.7%), Otton inline (41.9%), and Egbuka and Hurst out wide.
Many expected Egbuka to become the Bucs’ No. 1 WR, and in a way, he has. On the other hand, expectations seemed higher than what he’s actually produced. Egbuka is earning just 0.28 FP/RR (T-61st), drawing a sub-20 target share (19.83%), and a 19th percentile YPRR (1.11), so he’s neither drawing extraordinary volume nor is he overly efficient, which doesn’t justify his ADP.
All four of these pass-catchers have been strangely interchangeable. Each has a 16% to 19% TPRR, 1.13 to 1.29 YPRR, between six and nine rec 1Ds, and has season-long yardage totals between 128 and 157. Between them, they’ve caught two TDs.
Based on Fantasy Points’ Coverage Matchup tool, which reflects the types and rates of coverage the defense uses, Godwin has a favorable assignment (+17.1%) against Dallas. In comparison, Egbuka (-18.4%) and Hurst (-15.8%) have unfavorable draws. Otton's matchup is essentially neutral (-0.3%). Based on personnel assignments in PFF’s tool, Godwin’s matchup is graded as fair, while Egbuka and Otton have poor matchups.
In their last five games, the Cowboys have surrendered 35.1 PPG to WRs (10th).
They have allowed 15.0 PPG to TEs (11ᵗʰ), despite just 9.0 expected PPG (29ᵗʰ), suggesting substantial overperformance relative to expectations.
Otton is also among the strongest positive TD-regression candidates at TE based on TDOE, nearly 1.5 TDs behind pace.
When the Buccaneers have the ball, their offensive pass protection could be an issue, even against the lowly Cowboys’ D. The Cowboys’ defensive pass rush has the third most pronounced PrROE advantage over their opponent this week.
The Bucs’ run-blocking matchup is at least neutral. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are prone to surrendering rushing yards, with the fifth-most pronounced run funnel on this week’s slate.
The Cowboys have surrendered 25.6 PPR/G to RBs in their last five (6th), although they are coming off by far their most impressive game of that stretch against Houston.
Tampa Bay's backfield has become a three-man operation. Irving remains the clear leader in touches, and RB Kenny Gainwell has handled most of the complementary work. RB Sean Tucker played just three offensive snaps against Green Bay in Week 4, but turned his three carries into 10 yards and a TD. Gainwell added a receiving TD, while Irving led the backfield with 16 carries for 61 yards.
The workload remains heavily tilted toward Irving. Through four games, he's averaging 14 carries and 3.5 targets, with a 62% snap share. His 1.0 carries inside the 20 per game are tied for fourth, while his 18.2 routes per game rank 11ᵗʰ. However, he's averaging just 3.5 HVTs per game (T-22ⁿᵈ), limiting his fantasy ceiling.
Head coach Todd Bowles acknowledged Tuesday that Tampa Bay needs to give Tucker more opportunities, suggesting the team could ride the hot hand rather than maintain a rigid rotation. Irving should continue to lead the backfield, but Tucker's potential involvement near the goal line and Gainwell's passing-down work could make the division of touches a real Tampa Bay bummer.