Quick Slant: TNF - This Same Sacred Ground
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
On August 7, 1858, Melbourne had sprouted from a muddy colonial outpost into a gold-rush boomtown, swollen with ships, money, migrants and men who had come from half a world away to make their fortunes. The sod had been turned five weeks earlier to make way for the Melbourne and Suburban Railway, bringing the fade in and fade out of steady clanks – metal against wood – and the bustle of people peering to see what was unfolding at Richmond Paddock.
Among a crowd playing an unfamiliar game, Tom Wills was 22, a broad-shouldered, bearded sportsman with thick dark hair swept back from his forehead, his body hardened by years of throwing, batting, bowling and running. A locally famous cricketer, Wills had been looking for something to keep his fellow sportsmen fit through winter, and as the cold drew toward its close in the Southern Hemisphere, he took in what he'd helped set loose.
It was magnificent nonsense. Forty men from Melbourne Grammar against 40 more from Scotch College, charging after a leather ball across an expanse nearly 1,000 yards from goal to goal. They collided in crashing masses, separated, scattered, and came together again, 80 men chasing the same object wherever it decided to go.
The park was vast – nearly the length of 10 modern NFL playing surfaces – and dotted with gum trees, ready to record tackles on unsuspecting men running with turned necks. The players sprawled over the lawn like ants rebuilding around an enormous footprint, arguing, laughing, searching for oxygen bent at the waist, then shooting back up to pursue a free runner.
The game piece was perfectly round – not even the least bit oblong – and the rules contrasted with its perfection: they were abstract, negotiated, and often improvised. No painted sideline saved anyone from the violence, and no clock indicated when it would end. Men disappeared into tangled clusters of dust, then eventually poured back out, disheveled and bloody.
The afternoon was brisk but comfortable once the blood was moving. A little rain visited Melbourne, perhaps enough to darken the dirt beneath their boots and slick the grass.
Wills looked on. Weeks earlier, he had suggested someone ought to draw up a rulebook. Watching 80 men scramble and fight across three afternoons without producing a winner, the wisdom of that suggestion was easier to see. Nine months later, a meeting was set; Wills and three others declared ten rules. Australian Rules Football was born.
But the game took its first steps on this patch of Melbourne, beside a young cricket ground that would become the MCG, now a 100,000-seat colossus that rises from the 35.5-hectare Yarra Park, then known as the Paddock.
These damp blades of grass were stomped by some of Aussie Rules’ earliest legends: Jerry Bryant, William Hammersley, Thomas “Football” Smith and John Macadam. Their game went one way. Rugby went another, eventually crossing the Atlantic and branching off again. Today, the shared DNA of Aussie football, rugby and American football is evident to even the most casual observer.
On Thursday, that lineage continues – a new species springing from the same phylum, and with it, icons in their own spaces: Matthew Stafford, Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, George Kittle, Puka Nacua. They run Thursday in the same proto-Autumn air, among police horses and the Yarra River, in the shadow of Swan Street Bridge off Jolimont Road. The trains still go by – clack, clack, clack – and a few of the eldest gum trees that still dot the land outside the gates may have even played witness.
Here, on this same sacred ground, the NFL pays homage to its ancestry and affixes its gaze forward, ever evolving, hunting for new ways to grow.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) in Melbourne, Australia
Over/Under: 48.5
The NFC West was the best division in football a year ago. Even though the Seahawks and Rams separated themselves from the 49ers and made it to the NFC Championship and beyond, the 49ers were right there with them. Pythagorean Wins had all three in the top eight.
This year, both teams are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds, with the 49ers at +1800 (T-9th) and the Rams leading the way at +550.
The Rams were already great. They added ED Myles Garrett and brought back DT Aaron Donald, each a future Hall of Famer with five DPOY awards between them – arguably the best two defensive players of their generation. They also added CB Trent McDuffie, a former 2-time Super Bowl Champion with the Chiefs, all of which should promote their defense from good to great.
The 49ers finally put the Brandon Aiyuk drama behind them for now, moving on with future HOF WR Mike Evans, rookie second-round WR De’Zhaun Stribling, and turning to an old friend in sledgehammer slot WR Deebo Samuel as their expected nucleus. They traded for DT Osa Odighizuwa and brought back LB Dre Greenlaw to shore up their front seven.
Traditionally, both teams have operated relatively slowly at the line. Still, each picked up the pace last season, with the 49ers jumping to the middle of the pack in terms of seconds to snap from a neutral script, and the Rams jumping all the way up to second-fastest (27.8 seconds). The 49ers got off 63 plays per 60 minutes (T-6th), while the Rams got off 62 (T-11th).
Both teams were well above average in offensive EPA per play (LAR +0.149, SF +0.091). The Rams were above average in defensive EPA per play allowed (-0.069), while the 49ers were below average (+0.070).
While the forecast in Melbourne calls for mild temperatures and little chance of rain at game time, strong winds are expected. The wind is expected to run SW at 13 MPH with 17 MPH gusts, which are significant. The MCG’s azimuth is approximately NE to SW. While wind can adversely affect passing, ball tracking, and kicking, a crosswind is worse than a headwind or tailwind.
After a lot of iffy practice reports all week, it seems that TE George Kittle (Achilles), ED Nick Bosa (ACL), and ED Myles Garrett (rest) will all play. DT Aaron Donald (rest) will not. Ricky Pearsall (PCL) is out for the season.
49ERS
Implied Team Total: 22.5
The 49ers had an efficient offense last year, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play and third in offensive success rate. They were above average both as a passing unit and a rushing unit.
Historically more run-heavy under HC and OPC Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers were more balanced in terms of PROE last year at -0.9% (10th).
QB Brock Purdy had a truncated season in 2025, playing in only nine regular-season games. However, Purdy was one of the NFL's most effective QBs when suited up.
Purdy dropped back 34.8 times per game (15th), converting those into 31.6 attempts (14th). Purdy was extremely successful per dropback, ranking third in adjusted EPA per play (+0.265) and first in success rate (55.6%).
Over two years, Purdy has been excellent, posting the third-highest Apex Score among QBs.
Purdy is far from an elite rusher, but he is mid-level, averaging 4.15 rushing FP/G in 2024 (9th), then 3.63 last year (12th). However, he has been the second-most efficient thrower over the last three years, averaging 3.3 passing FPOE/G and trailing only Lamar Jackson.
Some of his fantasy efficiency is undeniably tied to TDs, and Purdy came in with a little over five TDs over expectation last year based on TDs per yard (2nd). This puts Purdy near the margins, where heightened or suppressed TDOE can manifest as TD regression.
However, this is actually not an obscene rate, and Purdy’s 7.8% passing TD rate in 2025 is not light-years ahead of his 6.2% career rate, where the true outlier is a reduced TD rate in 2024 (4.4%). At QB, a slightly higher TDOE than league average is more repeatable than it is at other positions, and regression becomes more pronounced as sample sizes shrink. While Purdy may have slightly overperformed in TD production last year, this rate doesn’t fall well outside of what we should expect for Purdy.
The 49ers will play against the Rams’ defense, which was already above average in both EPA per dropback and EPA per rush allowed – and that was before their hearty makeover.
The Rams will not utilize Donald yet; he joined the team late this summer after a two-year layoff. It is worth being careful, even with the superhuman Donald, so his slower ramp-up is underway.
Garrett, who nursed a slight injury and has sat out every preseason game (along with many Rams, to be clear), finally had his practice participation brought up to full on Wednesday and is expected to play.
The Rams, under third-year DPC Chris Shula, ran zone coverage 76.4% of the time last year (7th), using Cover 3 35.5% of the time (9th). Their blitz rate of 17.7% was second-lowest in the league, trailing only Cincinnati.
Against the types and rates of coverage the Rams play, the Fantasy Points matchup tool expects Purdy to perform slightly better than average by 1.7%.
PFF's tool is more personnel-based, combining player grades with projected individual matchups. They have Purdy’s matchup rated as good.
The 49ers have overhauled their offensive pass-catching corps by shelving WR Brandon Aiyuk, who refused to show up for camp, and letting Jauan Jennings walk. They also lost Ricky Pearsall to a PCL injury this offseason. They drafted WR De’Zhaun Stribling in the second round and signed veteran WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. For a time, it also appeared they may start the season without TE George Kittle, who tore his Achilles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs in January; he will play on Thursday.
The Niners funneled the largest share of their targets to RB Christian McCaffrey in 2025.McCaffrey’s fantasy relevancy as the RB1 came almost entirely on work in the passing game. McCaffrey earned 56.8% of his fantasy points on receptions, and he earned 13.9 receiving FP/G, far surpassing even second-placed Bijan Robinson (10.9).
McCaffrey’s rushing efficiency metrics, on the other hand, were awful; his YPC was in the 24th percentile, his FPOE per attempt was in the 20th percentile, and his PFF rushing grade was in the seventh percentile among all qualified RBs.
As he proved last year, provided McCaffrey can still be so effective as a receiver, he can still be highly fantasy relevant. The questions on most people’s minds are: Can McCaffrey stay healthy after such a massive workload a year ago, and is the drop in efficiency a sign that the end is near?
McCaffrey may be downgraded in this one, too – at least as a rusher. The 49ers should have a run-blocking disadvantage based on last year's adj. RBC/Att.
It is still somewhat of a mystery how the pass-catchers will coalesce as a brand new stable. Like McCaffrey, there are questions about Evans’ age after sustaining multiple injuries last year that cost him essentially all but seven games. He’s obviously headed for Canton, and he’s a true X receiver unlike any Shanahan has had since he was the OPC for Atlanta and Julio Jones. Evans had a hard year, but he still had a 90th percentile TPRR on a 92nd percentile aDOT.
The rookie Stribling was considered a lukewarm prospect and a draft-day reach, but he smashed in the preseason, outplaying any other rookie and spending a fair amount of time with the starters. Stribling’s ADP was one of the most significant risers this summer. There’s never certainty in that, but I suppose being dominant in the preseason is better than the alternative.
Samuel is also older, and he’s shown some signs of decline, finishing at or outside of the top 20 in every significant receiving category except for YACo/G, where he was still in the 88th percentile.
Kittle is coming off of an Achilles that shut him down a year ago. When healthy, Kittle has shown no signs of slowing. An annual fixture in the 90th percentile in YPRR, Kittle was also in the 95th percentile in RECs/G, REC Yds/G, first-read target share, rec 1Ds/G, TPRR, and FPOE/G. Shanahan already indicated that he may manage Kittle’s load off the top.
If we feel like we can’t quite trust Kittle, then it kind of feels like the most reliable place for targets to go, at least at first, is right back to McCaffrey.
According to PFF’s matchup tool, the only 49ers’ pass-catcher with a good matchup is Kittle; even McCaffrey has been downgraded to fair.
One area where the 49ers don’t necessarily seem overwhelmed is pass-blocking, where they should have a PrROE advantage on offense based on last year’s data; of course, they will face Garrett, which changes the math.
This is strength-on-strength, though, so we’ll have to wait and see how they match up. If pressured, it could be problematic. Purdy loses about 40 QB rating points when under pressure vs. clean.