Sunday Night Walkthrough Week 12: Pl44sed to be in Los Angeles

Pat Kerrane

22 Nov 2025

Welcome to the Week 12 Sunday Night Football Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 12th glorious Sunday Night of football in 2025.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Buccaneers at Rams, 8:20 PM

Buccaneers

Implied Team Total: 21.5

Baker Mayfield is ultimately what drives the Buccaneers' offense. But I would argue that Sam Darnold is also ultimately what drives the Seahawks offense... even though the Seahawks don't feature Sam Darnold.

Last week, the Buccaneers did a bit of a Seahawks impression, pivoting hard to the run against the run funnel Bills defense.

The Bucs aren't always looking to pound the rock. Unlike Seattle, their identity isn't built around a consistently conservative approach.

However, this also isn't the first time we've seen the Bucs pivot to the run. It's not their only plan of attack, but they can shapeshift into a run-heavy team.

This week, the Bucs get a Rams defense that is extremely effective against the pass. They are excellent in coverage and pressure the passer quickly and often without blitzing.

The Rams are also good against the run. So it's not like pivoting to a run-heavy approach puts Los Angeles in a bind.

We've seen Rams opponents attack in a variety of ways. The Texans, Eagles, Ravens (with Cooper Rush), and Seahawks have also posted below-average pass rates with negative PROEs. But the Colts, Jaguars, and 49ers have posted above-average pass rates with positive PROEs.

As 6.5-point road underdogs, the Bucs probably won't be dictating this game environment. But even if they play from ahead, I'm not sure that they would be truly run-heavy here. Two weeks ago, against a difficult Patriots pass defense, they posted a 69% pass rate with a 2% PROE.

Baker Mayfield has turned in elite efficiency on multiple occasions this year, but it's been almost a month since we've seen that version of him. He was solid against the Bills and Patriots, but the Bucs will need him to step things up to have a real chance here.

For the season, Mayfield ranks QB15 in EPA per game but just QB25 in success rate. He's making plays, but his consistency has become somewhat of an issue.

This week's matchup is very tough. But there are a few reasons to be hopeful. For one, as I've already laid out, passing volume should at least be solid. But another reason not to completely fear this matchup is that Mayfield has been much better against zone than man this year. Against zone, he's averaging 7.7 yards per attempt; he's at just 4.9 against man.

Meanwhile, the Rams play zone at an 80% clip, the fourth-highest rate in the league. The Rams play predominantly Cover-3 (38%), which Mayfield hasn't been as deadly against as other types of zone, with 6.6 YPA against Cover-3. But the Rams mix up their coverages.

Emeka Egbuka has also been much stronger against zone than man. Against zone, Egbuka has a 24% TPRR and 2.51 YPRR. Against Cover-3 specifically, Egbuka has a 26% TPRR and 2.06 YPRR.

Against man, Egbuka is still getting targeted; he has a 29% TPRR. But he's really struggling to convert his looks, with just a 0.99 YPRR.

Egbuka's open score hints at a lack of one-on-one separation ability—at least at this stage of his career. But he's profiling as an exciting zone-beating playmaker, and this matchup sets him up that way.

This matchup creates a low-floor for the passing game overall—because first and foremost, the Rams are really good at stopping the pass. However, if Mayfield gets cooking, it will very likely involve productive Egbuka targets. He's a low-end WR1.

Chris Godwin practiced all week (LP/FP/LP) and is questionable for this game, but seems more likely to play than not.

Godwin was heavily targeted in his Week 4 return from injury, but wasn't able to produce on his targets, and was much quieter in Week 5. Godwin was also facing a very banged-up version of the Seahawks' secondary in that second game. Even if he plays, Godwin is likely to be at less than full health and gets a tough matchup this week. He's just a WR5 if he goes.

Back in Week 4, Godwin played alongside Egbuka and Sterling Shepard. But in Week 5, Tez Johnson forced a split with Shepard. And Johnson has worked into much stronger playing time over the last three weeks.

Assuming Godwin is back, those routes are coming from someone, and it won't be Egbuka. Johnson and Shepard have very similar profiles this year, so it's possible they end up splitting again. But given that he's been working ahead of Shepard as the No. 2, I think Johnson is likely to retain something close to a full-time role in the offense.

Of course, Johnson hasn't been very efficient, gets a tough matchup, and may end up as the No. 3 in the WR pecking order, even if he's ahead of Shepard. He's just a dart throw if Godwin plays, but in the WR5 mix if he doesn't.

At tight end, Cade Otton has been much more productive over the last six games than he was to start the year. He's been able to step up with the offense needing an additional weapon, but was very quiet when the Bucs had multiple target earners available. Godwin's potential return is a bit of a concern in that regard.

But it's unclear which version of Godwin we're getting, so Otton could end up being his usual self. And while Otton's season-long profile doesn't look great, he's been much more involved in recent weeks. He's a high-end TE2.

In the run game, Sean Tucker is coming off a breakout game against the Bills, in which he rushed 19 times for 106 yards and two TDs, with 24 RYOE. He also went 2/34/1 as a receiver.

I’m #PL44SED with my performance pic.twitter.com/lO8qD9iZMU
— Sean Tucker (@seantucker2020) November 17, 2025

Even last week, Rachaad White had a clear lead in snaps, 61% to 44%. However, Tucker led 49% to 26% in carry share, and they both had an 8% target share. So, White is the better bet for playing time this week... but not necessarily for touches.

White has been a consistent runner but has offered very little burst or explosiveness. Even as a receiver, he has been very unexciting.

Tucker's season-long numbers don't look great at first glance, but consider that breakaway yards per game and RYOE per game are heavily penalizing Tucker for having been in a rotational role for 5-of-8 games this year. His RB8 ranking in RYOE per attempt is the number I care most about here. I'm guessing the Bucs are feeling similarly intrigued. As in—you know, I wouldn't mind seeing more of Sean Tucker.

Tucker fell out of the 2023 draft, but not because he's not talented. He was medically flagged in the draft process for a rare congenital heart defect. He was subsequently cleared to play, but not until after the draft, leading him to go undrafted.

Tucker was very productive at Syracuse, profiling much like he looks right now—a downhill runner with some breakaway pop. As a 4th round draft pick, his top comp in my model would be Chuba Hubbard. It's quite possible that the Bucs hit on a truly undervalued playmaker. At the very least, it's pretty clear he's a significant upgrade on Rachaad White.

As exciting as last week was, Tucker's production came against a bad Bills run defense. He gets a much more formidable challenge this week.

Still, he shapes up as a high-end RB3 as a bet on him being an underutilized talent. White is a PPR RB4.

Rams

Implied Team Total: 28

Matthew Stafford is coming off his least efficient game of the season. Granted, he just faced an extremely difficult Seahawks defense.

For the season, Stafford still looks impressive. He ranks QB9 in EPA per game and QB7 in success rate.

Stafford now faces a Buccaneers defense that isn't to the Seahawks' level, but is still a difficult test.

However, it's not like pivoting to the run makes a ton of sense against the Bucs. They have a very strong run defense.

In fact, although the Buccaneers are pretty good against the pass, it still makes the most sense to attack them through the air. The Bucs have a poor success rate against the pass, with a very strong success rate against the run. The Bucs can generate errors and make big plays in the passing game, but from a move-the-chains perspective, it makes more sense to lean on the passing game against Tampa Bay.

And that's exactly how we've seen opponents play it. Only the Eagles and Lions have posted below-average pass rates against the Bucs.

Teams are also shifting to the pass in a big way for this matchup. Tampa Bay is a pass funnel.

The Rams have a 4% PROE, which ranks behind only the Chiefs (8%) and the Cardinals (5%). They also have a 3% PROE on 1st down, which ranks fifth highest. From that perspective, they are a pass-heavy team. But I wouldn't necessarily categorize them that way. I think they're more of a solidly pass-first team that is willing to really lean into the pass if the matchup suits it.

But this matchup ultimately does suit a pass-heavy approach, much like their matchups with the Titans, Jaguars, and 49ers. We could see a high pass rate here.

Matthew Stafford is very likely to face a high blitz rate against this Todd Bowles defense. But that's something he's used to, and something that he's been able to handle very well so far this year.

Stafford will also be going against a Bucs defense that will be without CB Jamel Dean. Among 106 qualifying CBs, Dean ranks 29th in yards allowed per coverage snap. His backup, Benjamin Morrison, ranks 102nd.

The Rams look capable of overcoming a challenging passing matchup and could play things aggressively, attacking the Bucs' weakness at outside corner with both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua does a lot of his damage over the middle of the field, but he's not really a slot—he plays everywhere, seeing 37.5% of his snaps in the slot, with 59.5% out wide and 2% inline. The Bucs will have their hands full trying to contain him, while also dealing with Davante Adams out wide.

If the Rams succeed on offense this week, that success is likely to be a direct result of strong games from Nacua and Adams—particularly Nacua. Adams has been very impressive this year, but Nacua's ability to earn targets remains on another level. Nacua is an elite WR1 here, with Adams as a WR1.

At tight end, Tyler Higbee is the closest to looking like a starter. But he's really just a glorified rotational player.

Behind Higbee, Colby Parkinson has seen his playing time pick up a bit over the last two weeks.

But the Rams are also playing Terrance Ferguson and Davis Allen. Ferguson actually looked to be picking up a bit before falling off against the Seahawks in route participation.

Higbee's profile is deeply uninspiring.

Parkinson looks a little more interesting, and Ferguson looks... a lot more interesting. Both Parkinson and Ferguson have uncertain playing time, but the Rams are using enough heavy personnel that one of them is likely to be on the field at a decent rate. And given the playmaking that both have flashed, they're intriguing for short slate and showdown purposes.

The Rams are 6.5-point home favorites, which is usually a pretty nice setup for the starting RB. However, Kyren Williams will face a strong run defense, and the Rams will likely prioritize the passing game this week. Moreover, if the Rams defense stifles the Bucs offense, Williams could lose late-game work to Blake Corum, like we saw against the Jaguars.

So, this isn't a smash spot for Williams. But it's not a bad spot either. If the Rams can move the ball effectively on offense—even if the passing game is leading the way—that will create scoring opportunities. And Williams continues to have a solid role near the goal line. He's also run well this year; his 51% success rate is elite.