Since originally publishing my FFPC ownership projections on Wednesday, the FFPC landcape seems to have shifted a bit.
Most notably, A.J. Brown missed another practice. Sentiment on the Eagles feels increasingly bearish, and I now have Jake Elliott as the Eagles chalk, with Devonta Smith close behind. Dallas Goedert will also catch some ownership as contestants hunt for non-Kelce ways to fill the TE slot. But I don't foresee Goedert getting mega-steamed. If you already have TE filled, why not just play the better-projected Smith?
Of course, all of this is subject to change, with the potential for positive news on Brown before lineups lock. However, it looks unlikely that Brown will be the no-brainer chalk play he would have been if fully healthy. Honestly, it's possible he's now a sharp contrarian pivot. Although, again, Saturday will be key. I'll be hesitant to play Brown if there's a realistic chance he misses the Wild Card round. This is a tournament where a couple of points can create huge swings. Risking a zero isn't advisable.
Here are some other quick thoughts:
Sam LaPorta Practices in Full
Sam LaPorta's full practice designation will likely be enough to get him into a small percentage of lineups. He's an interesting player to think through. Normally, with a contrarian pivot off mega chalk, you'd prefer to pair that play with a team-level fade. In other words, if you're fading Amon-Ra St. Brown, you'd generally prefer that the Lions lose in Round 1. The bigger the sample, the more likely St. Brown is to emerge as the highest-scoring Lion. However, in this case, you can talk yourself into LaPorta getting healthier the deeper the Lions get into the playoffs.
Ultimately, though, LaPorta feels like a very risky play. It could be clear on the Lions' first drive that LaPorta – who has been practicing with a massive knee brace – is not himself. I can see the case for playing him on otherwise chalk lineups, but I'd prefer to make a handful of more comfortable pivots rather than adding a unique high-risk pivot to a chalk build.
LaPorta feels like more of a late-round TE dart throw in DraftKings playoff best ball. We've bumped him up in the LegUp rankings.