Week 1 Walkthrough: Colston Loveland's Burden of Proof

Pat Kerrane

11 Sep 2026

Welcome to the Week 1 Walkthrough—the first Walkthrough of the 2026 season. This weekly preview article series will run through Week 17.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the first glorious football Sunday of 2026.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Bears at Panthers, 1 PM

Bears

Implied Team Total: 25.25

The potential ascendancy of the Bears offense has been one of the biggest stories of the 2026 offseason.

That ascension will require a significant step forward from Caleb Williams. At his best, Williams was electric in 2025. But overall, his efficiency was very similar to Jalen Hurts' and Kyler Murray's. That might strike you as being worse than I mean it to sound—I'm expecting a rebound season for both of those players. But, at the same time, it's helpful to acknowledge that the Bears can't get where they want to go without another step forward at QB.

This week, Williams has an opportunity to make the faders weep. He faces a Panthers defense that generated no pass rush last year and was firmly below average against the pass overall. They added Jaelan Phillips (formerly of the Eagles and Dolphins) in the offseason, which should help their pass rush. But this still looks like a fairly weak pass defense.

However, efficiency isn't the only factor here. Volume is important as well. And Ben Johnson will be game planning against a defense that was also quite weak against the run.

Last year, the Panthers were a clear run funnel.

And last year, the Bears were meaningfully tilted toward the run, with a -4% pass rate over expected (PROE).

D'Andre Swift will lead the Bears' rushing attack. Kyle Monangai is expected to play, but has been dealing with a knee injury. Also, Monangai was a pure grinder last year. If his role is reduced, that probably helps the offense.

Swift is far from a perfect back, but he's reportedly had a strong camp and could really hit the ground running in a good matchup. He's an RB2.

In the passing game, the Bears have been dealing with minor injuries to Luther Burden and Rome Odunze, with Odunze missing practice earlier this week. But he's back in a limited capacity and expected to play.

Last year, Burden took a long time to get going and never truly developed into a full-time player in the offense.

Per-route, though, Burden was excellent. He was far more efficient than Rome Odunze.

With DJ Moore now in Buffalo and Olamide Zaccheus in Atlanta, the Bears are seriously lacking for WR depth. It's hard to believe that Burden won't be a full-time WR. In fact, he profiles as the Bears' top option this year. He's a leap of faith, but one worth making in a good matchup with Odunze at less than 100%. Burden is a high-end WR2. Given his uncertain health, Odunze is a WR3.

If Burden fails to live up to the hype, Colston Loveland is a good bet to smash expectations. And, frankly, even if Burden is a baller, Loveland could still be the guy you need.

Loveland was highly efficient last year.

Even better, Loveland was the true focal point of the Bears offense down the stretch. In drafts this summer, I had trouble treating Loveland as an impending superstar. He could be. But at his 2026 ADP, if Loveland ends up being good rather than great, he will hurt redraft and best ball teams.

However... if I'm wrong, if Loveland is about to smash, I'd be surprised if it didn't happen more or less right away. The pro-Loveland case is that he is the passing focal point and helps the Bears more credibly threaten the run when he's on the field. In other words, Loveland looks like a potential play action god, and this week's game plan could include a lot of play action against a team that may need to overplay the run to avoid repeatedly giving up chunk gains. The upside in this matchup is crystal clear; Loveland is an elite TE1.

Panthers

Implied Team Total: 22.25

Bryce Young and Tyler Shough had very similar efficiency last season, which is something you might say if you felt like the market was overly bullish on Shough. But it's also something you might say if you felt like Young was being treated as definitely bad when... that's just probably the case. After all, if Shough can take a leap at age 26, surely Bryce Young can still improve at age 25.

On the Bears side, I have a lot of respect for Ben Johnson's team-building strategy since arriving in Chicago. As a difference-making offensive mind with an uber-talented QB coming off a poor rookie season, Johnston rebuilt the offensive line and added playmakers at WR and TE. The end result was major offensive improvements... and a defense that kind of sucks.

Ultimately, it's hard to simultaneously turn things around on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The Bears picked offense. And they executed it well. But that offense will have to hide a poor defense this year.

From the Panthers' perspective, Dave Canales is likely to be intrigued by the Bears' weak pass defense. He's likely even more fired up about running the ball against Chicago.

Last year, the Panthers were firmly a run-first, if not run-heavy, team, with a -5% PROE. Even as home underdogs, they'll likely lean on the run game first and foremost.

Chuba Hubbard was named a team captain. So, that's cool. As an actual football player... less cool.

Jonathon Brooks is a few days away from successfully returning from a second ACL tear that cost him all of 2025. He recently rested with "soreness" but is reportedly ready to go. I expect him to be in a timeshare with Hubbard. But I also expect him to be the more explosive back and the more capable receiver. Over the course of the season, I also expect him to become the Panthers' lead back. For now, though, both RBs look like RB4s.

At WR, things are more clear-cut. Tetairoa McMillan is the dude. McMillan could play in the slot more this year, after just a 20% slot rate last year, which could boost his production a bit. But even if that doesn't materialize, we're talking about a WR who went No. 8 overall, then immediately established himself as his team's No. 1 WR while posting strong efficiency. This is the type of player who can deliver a big-time Year 2 breakout despite unideal QB play. At WR, talent is king, and McMillan has a chance to prove he's among the most talented WRs in the league. In a game with potential to beat its 47.5-point total, he's a locked-in WR2.

Jalen Coker's upside isn't at McMillan's level, but he's been an efficient WR and is the clear No. 2 option in a good game environment. He's a WR4.

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Buccaneers at Bengals, 1 PM

Buccaneers

Implied Team Total: 23.5

The Bucs head into the 2026 season under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, formerly the Falcons' OC.

This could shift the Bucs toward the run compared with last year's tendencies under former OC Josh Grizzard.

More importantly, the Buccaneers' offensive line is healthy to begin the season, unlike last year, and is ranked by offensive line expert Brandon Thorn as an elite unit.

They'll face a Bengals defense that was quite poor against the run last season and remains coached by Al Golden, the Bengals DC in 2025.

Bucky Irving is coming off a very disappointing season. He started the year behind a banged-up offensive line, but with true workhorse usage. He then missed seven games due to injury and returned to a diminished role.

The Bucs added Kenny Gainwell to the offseason, creating risk for another disappointing season for Irving, who was one of the least efficient runners in football last season.

However, Irving remained a needle-moving receiver, despite ceding pure passing situations to Rachaad White. He should remain a contributor there on early downs, even with Gainwell in the mix. After all, while splitting with Gainwell last year, Jaylen Warren posted 40 receptions.

Irving's season could go either way, but if he hits this year, he could start off hot in a good matchup. I'm treating him as a high-end RB2 here, with Gainwell as an RB4.

Irving should be supported by a solid passing game. Baker Mayfield was up and down last year, but ultimately decently efficient.

He'll be facing a Bengals defense that was truly atrocious last year. After trading for Dexter Lawrence, they should be improved. But we're still likely to see a firmly below-average unit in Cincinnati.

Emeka Egbuka has been focusing on Z this summer and looks set to operate as the Bucs' No. 1 WR again this season. The main question is how big a gap we'll see between him and Chris Godwin. Last year, the offense was designed to go through Egbuka, but his 18% first-read target rate was good, not elite. If the Bucs want the offense to truly revolve around Egbuka, they can easily update the play sheet with that in mind.

On the other hand, Chris Godwin has reportedly been very steady this summer, while Egbuka has missed time with a toe injury. If Robinson wants his offense to focus on Godwin out of the slot, that would also be an easy enough adjustment.

The good news is that with both players in a good matchup in a game with a high point total, it's the type of question you can learn the answer to with them in your starting lineup. Egbuka shapes up as a WR2 with Godwin as a high-end WR3.

Bengals

Implied Team Total: 27

The Bengals have reportedly been working on more of an under center approach to their offense. Down the line, that could pay dividends. This week, it could contribute to the Bengals' yearly tradition of looking discombobulated in Week 1.

That potential increases against a blitz-happy Buccaneers defense that added 1st-round EDGE Rueben Bain.

The Bengals offensive line isn't a total disaster, but it's definitely not great. We're likely to see the Bengals working out some kinks here.

At the same time, the Bengals' passing game is concentrated on two star WRs. The Bucs will try to take both away, of course, but with the Bucs likely to blitz... we could be looking at more single coverage than usual. The Bengals will probably be somewhat boom/bust play-to-play, but both Chase and Higgins remain locked in and have clear explosive play potential against a defense that struggled in coverage last year.

Joe Burrow also remains a true star. Although his efficiency wasn't elite last year, he clearly remains one of the top passers in the NFL and now gets a home matchup in a high-total game. I'm willing to bet that he takes some sacks here. But that doesn't mean I'm betting against him having a productive day.

I also don't think the Bengals really have it in them to go run first. They might show more run looks this year, and they could very well pass less. But this is a true pass-heavy team with continuity at head coach and QB, with two star WRs. The Bengals offense still runs through Burrow.

Chase Brown drafters are hoping that the Bengals are serious about pivoting more to the run. Or, perhaps even better, including Brown more in the passing attack.

Brown was already a strong target earner last year, though. The issue has really been what he does when targeted. Brown rated poorly in YPT (5.1), YPRR (1.09), and receiver rating last year. And at 26, I'm skeptical he takes a major leap.

It's worth noting that Brown's rushing metrics were also pretty uninspiring last year.

In my view, Brown is primarily a bet on volume and situation. This isn't a great rushing matchup, but the Bengals should be able to put up points here, and Brown definitely has control of this backfield. It's also possible I'm wrong, and he thrives with more under-center run plays. He's a low-end RB1.

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Saints at Lions, 1 PM

Saints

Implied Team Total: 21.25

The Saints used Tyler Shough's first NFL offseason to truly build around their young starter. They added Travis Etienne in free agency, filling a clear need at RB. They then drafted Joryn Tyson No. 8 overall, who reportedly had a very promising summer... until he suffered a hamstring injury.

Tyson will be out for the beginning of the season, returning Chris Olave to his clear-cut No. 1 WR role. And he'll face a defense that has breakdowns in coverage last season.

As a 7-point road underdog, the Saints could also be pushed to air it out here, creating major target upside for Olave.

Olave demonstrated last year that he can operate as a true No. 1 receiver. Both in the sense that a solid passing offense can be designed around him, and in the sense that he can get open and draw targets even when the defense knows he's the primary plan. This matchup sets up Olave for impressive volume; he's a WR1.

Last year, Tyler Shough was a nice surprise. Shough could end up being the best QB in the 2025 class, which would have seemed like an obnoxious hot take this time last year, and completely detached from reality two summers ago. But Shough provided some genuine highlights last year and gives the Saints something to build on.

But... Shough's rookie year wasn't exactly bulletproof, either. He had some moments, but his efficiency was also quite similar to Tua Tagovailoa's and Bryce Young's. This could still end up not working out. Or, put another way, Shough is a good breakout bet for the Saints, but not an impressive finished product.

It'll be interesting to see how much the Saints view him as the true engine of the offense in a matchup where they'll likely need to keep pace with a high-scoring Lions offense.

Last year, Kellen Moore was quite willing to throw the ball. The Saints were mostly throwing from behind, but they weren't hiding the ball, which is a nice sign for how they felt about their rookie QB.

However, how much of this was about Shough... and how much of it was just admitting the obvious fact that they didn't have a quality run game?

This matchup should be telling in that regard. The Lions' run defense was mediocre last season, and if the Saints plan to operate with more balance, they could look to keep this game from getting out of control with a healthy dose of the run.

Travis Etienne was not especially impressive last year and yet still represents a huge improvement over last year's committee backfield. Etienne's receiving upside also gets a boost this week with Alvin Kamara working back from an MCL injury. Kamara is practicing, but could be in a more limited role, assuming he plays. Etienne profiles as a low-end RB2.

If the Saints are willing to lean into the game script here, Juwan Johnson jumps out as an intriguing option. With Tyson out, he should operate as the No. 2 target in the passing game. Last year, he had an 80th-percentile first-read target rate, with a solid 19% TPRR. Johnson isn't the most traditional tight end. When Tyson gets back, it's possible Johnson's route participation drops, allowing the Saints to play a more versatile (rushing-friendly) inline tight end. But Johnson should have a strong role this week. He's a high-end TE2.

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