Week 12 Walkthrough: Enter Sandman

Week 12 Walkthrough: Enter Sandman

Welcome to the Week 12 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 12th glorious football Sunday of 2025.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Note - NFL Next Gen appears to have stopped updating their rushing ROE% metric; I'm now using an EPA-based success rate instead.

Giants at Lions, 1 PM

Giants

Implied Team Total: 19.75

Jaxson Dart looks set to return to the lineup this week, which is great news for the Giants. Dart has been very impressive this year. He needs to do a better job protecting himself, but as QB12 in EPA per game and QB17 in success rate, he's turned in a very strong rookie season so far.

Last week, Jameis Winston filled in nicely, producing strong efficiency.

However, in Mike Kafka's first game as head coach, the Giants were extremely run-heavy.

Dart's first start against the Chargers was the only game this year in which the Giants passed less frequently, and that was in a win with positive game script. Last week, Kafka refused to pass despite a game script that called for it.

It's hard to know how relevant last week's playcalling is for this game, though. Kafka was shepherding a backup QB through a tough matchup against the Packers. It makes sense that he didn't want to air it out.

But the Giants have another tough matchup against the Lions this week. The Lions are dealing with some injuries in the secondary with CB Terrion Arnold set to miss with a concussion and S Kerby Joseph likely out with a knee injury. But they've weathered injuries well in previous games and remain a relatively difficult matchup.

If Kafka is looking to build his game plan around the run, this matchup gives him an excuse to do so.

We don't yet know how willing the Giants head coach is to... actually play to win. That creates a low floor in a matchup where the Giants are 10.5-point road underdogs.

But there's a high ceiling here too. If Kafka's playcalling was primarily related to having Winston under center and the (correct) belief that he could sucker Matt LaFleur into playing a one-score game with a far inferior opponent, then we could see a big shift to the pass this week. The Lions aren't trying to play a one-score game with anyone, even if it occasionally leads to them losing by multiple scores.

Playing to win against the Lions generally means airing it out. There is an exception to this rule. If you can shut down the Lions offense, as the Packers and Eagles have done, then a truly conservative approach can make sense. Otherwise, prioritizing the run against the Lions has been a form of capitulation, like we saw from the Commanders in Week 10 and the Browns in Week 4.

The Lions aren't an easy team to run on, either.

And with Cam Skattebo out of the lineup, the Giants' run game is deeply uninspiring. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy have been splitting rushing work.

Theoretically, Singletary is the consistent chain mover, with Tracy as the more versatile and explosive back. But Singletary has a very poor 37% success rate. He isn't moving the chains.

Tracy is just as inconsistent as Singletary, and just as unexplosive. And while Tracy is significantly more involved as a receiver, he's hardly profiling as a playmaker there.

Skattebo proved that it doesn't have to be this way—this offense has supported much stronger efficiency in the backfield this year.

The Giants don't have an amazing offensive line, but their run blocking has been solid, and the line has been pretty healthy. So, the issues in the current backfield are very likely tied to the talent level of Tracy and Singletary.

With the Giants as big road underdogs and in a tough matchup, Tracy is just an RB3 as a bet on receptions in negative game script.

But if the Giants do find themselves in negative game script and Kafka is actually willing to pass, then there's more upside than just Tracy receptions.

Jaxon Dart may not be able to keep pace with the Lions, but he should be capable of generating some downfield passing production against a banged-up secondary—again, provided he has sufficient dropback volume.

Following Malik Nabers' injury, Wan'Dale Robinson has functioned as the Giants' clear No. 1 WR. If anything, Kafka looks even more interested in featuring Robinson than Brian Daboll was.

Robinson has been solid this year and is the type of WR who is very likely to benefit from increased dropback volume. With upside for significantly more dropback volume this week, Robinson is a low-end WR2.

Last week, with Darius Slayton out, Jalin Hyatt and Isaiah Hodgins operated as the No. 2 and 3 WRs. Hodgins was actually decent, and as more of a possession receiver, it's possible he sees solid target volume if the Giants are passing at a high rate and Slayton is out again.

Slayton is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been DNP/LP in practice this week. His status is truly questionable.

But even if Slayton misses again, the Giants have tried a number of different WRs out at the No. 3 WR spot, making Hodgins hard to trust. Hyatt is also an uninspiring dart throw.

Theo Johnson is a very safe bet for routes, but he's not profiling as much of a target earner, and he's been very inefficient as a yardage producer. He has a strong role around the goal line, though, and is a high-end TE2 as a bet on a TD.

Lions

Implied Team Total: 30.25

A week ago, Dan Campbell looked like a genius for taking over playcalling duties. The Lions steamrolled the Commanders, Jared Goff turned in elite efficiency, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams all saw substantial target volume, and Jahmyr Gibbs turned in an elite performance.

A week later, things feel a bit different.

Goff had his worst game of the season against the Eagles, and Campbell's solution is... more David Montgomery?

We need John Morton calling the plays in Detroit; I've always said this.

Ultimately, I'm still happy Campbell took over play calling duties, but it's clear that it's not a silver bullet. In tough matchups, the floor on this offense remains low.

However, this is not a tough matchup. For a team like the Lions, it's a borderline dream matchup. The Giants have the worst run defense in the NFL.

Campbell has said he wants to give Montgomery more carries this week, but... relative to what?

A month ago, Campbell made a similar comment.

Campbell's original statement came after Montgomery handled just 17% of carries against the Chiefs. He brought up Montgomery's workload again after he saw just 29% of carries against the Eagles.

It's pretty clear that Campbell is looking for Montgomery and Gibbs to have close to an even split, as we saw, for example... against the Commanders. Against Washington, Montgomery and Gibbs both handled 15 carries. Gibbs ripped off 142 yards and scored two TDs. Montgomery turned in 71 scoreless yards.

It's frustrating that Campbell views maintaining this split as a priority. But in a matchup like this, there's not much reason to be worried about Gibbs' workload. He's not going to dominate carries. But he's only done that once all season and is still averaging 20.4 PPR points per game. We're not betting on workhorse rushing usage here.

Gibbs should have a healthy rushing workload in an exceptional matchup. He will also be involved as a receiver, and profiles as one of the best receiving backs in the NFL.

Against the Eagles, Campbell again showed more willingness to pass than Morton.

The Lions were balanced with a slight lean to the pass on 1st down. It's not like they were pass-heavy, but this still represents a departure from the Morton offense.

The Lions are 10.5-point home favorites, have an implied team total of 30.25, and are in a game with a 50-point total. If Gibbs splits carries with Montgomery, he can turn in a strong day. If he splits carries and the Giants make this a game—considering how strong his receiving role is—Gibbs has a monster ceiling. He's an elite RB1.

Montgomery, meanwhile, is far less interesting than Gibbs. He's been less consistent than Gibbs while also lacking the elite breakaway ability of his running mate. And with a weak receiving role, Montgomery is very TD dependent.

But with his head coach and playcaller clearly wanting to keep a floor on his carries, and going against the Giants defense as a big home favorite, he's a high-end RB3.

With the Lions very likely to be in positive game script, we can count on substantial rushing volume. However, Campbell has been more interested in using the running game to help unlock passing efficiency than Morton. And this is a great matchup to attack with a balanced approach.

The Giants aren't as bad against the pass as they are against the run, but they are still quite vulnerable through the air. And they are likely to be without starting CB Paulson Adebo (knee) and EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder), both of whom have not practiced this week.

Even after cratering last week, Jared Goff looks pretty strong in the season-long numbers. He ranks QB10 in EPA per game and QB11 in success rate. Back at home and in a great matchup, he should be able to get back on track.

If Goff can get rolling again, we could be looking at a huge day from Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown's target volume was as impressive as ever against the Eagles. However, he faced a ton of double coverage and couldn't convert his targets into yards.

St. Brown now gets a Giants defense that doesn't double cover at a high rate. The Giants also play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (35%) behind only the Browns (44%).

Against man coverage, St. Brown has a TPRR of 40.5%, the highest in the NFL, just ahead of CeeDee Lamb (36%), AJ Brown (35%), and Puka Nacua (35%). St. Brown also has 3.00 YPRR against man.

He's set up for a huge game here and is an elite WR1.

Jameson Williams has 2.56 YPRR against man, but just a 19% TPRR. It's the same old story with Williams. He's productive when targeted, but his targets are hard to count on. And... considering that earning targets is a skill, that tells us something about Williams.

Williams also saw his first-read target rate drop to just 11% last week. He was more involved than usual, but that says more about where "usual" has been than being a bullish takeaway from Week 11.

The good news for Williams is that he was clearly the No. 2 option in the passing game. Kalif Raymond logged 56% route participation but wasn't targeted. Isaac TesSlaa posted 44% and failed to secure his lone target. Brock Wright operated as the starting tight end but provided very little value.

If the Lions' passing game roars back to life this week—which I very much expect it to—Williams can easily turn in a big game. He's a high-end WR3.

(Back to Quick Links)

Patriots at Bengals, 1 PM

Patriots

Implied Team Total: 28.75

Drake Maye is coming off a 78th percentile mark in EPA per play against the Jets. He's now been 75th percentile or better in seven games, which is tied with Josh Allen for the league lead.

Maye is having a very strong season—an MVP caliber season. He ranks QB2 in EPA per game and QB6 in success rate. But it's not just that Maye has been efficient; it's that he's consistently delivering on matchups where we would expect efficiency.

As well as he's played, there is one matchup element that can make me a bit nervous about Maye: pressure. Maye is taking a long time to throw and is allowing pressure and sacks at higher-than-ideal rates.

Maye is also playing behind an offensive line that isn't terrible but can get exposed when facing a strong pass rush.

However, pressure is not something we need to worry about this week. The Patriots are taking on the Bengals, who have arguably the worst pass rush in the NFL.

Trey Hendrickson, who ranks EDGE7 in pass rush win rate, is the Bengals' only prayer for consistent pressure. But Hendrickson is doubtful for this game.

The Bengals are also very likely to be without starting CB Cam Taylor-Britt, making an already weak secondary all the more vulnerable.

We look to be at a point where Stefon Diggs is a reliable starting option alongside Maye. Diggs is coming off a season-high 89% route participation and consistently drew targets against the Jets, despite a very high double coverage rate.

With the Patriots having a 28.75-point implied team total in a matchup where Maye could be cooking, Diggs is a low-end WR1.

The Bengals are also very weak against the run, creating an opportunity for the Patriots to pivot to the ground game.

However, the Patriots haven't been eager to lean on the run this year. If the Bengals can't muster any pushback, that will lead to significant rushing volume. But as we saw last week against the Jets, it doesn't take a ton for the Patriots to hit an above-average pass rate.

And, with Joe Burrow now appearing to have a real chance to return this week, the Bengals have a shot not just to push back a bit but to genuinely compete with the Patriots in a high-scoring game.

So, even with the Patriots being more of a balanced team than a pass-heavy one, there should be enough passing volume to support a strong day from Diggs here.

The rest of the Patriots' passing corps is more speculative. Kayshon Boutte returned to practice this week and has been practicing in full. He's provided a consistent downfield element to the passing game.

Boutte's role makes him boom/bust, but he looks a lot more capable of drawing targets than Kyle Williams, who has been filling in with Boutte out.

In a great matchup that could keep the Patriots passing, Boutte is a WR4.

Mack Hollins has seen significant playing time over the last two weeks and looks more likely to retain his role than Kyle Williams. Hollins has been much more effective on his routes.

With Diggs spending nearly half of his snaps in the slot, there should be room for both Boutte and Hollins to run routes at near-full-time rates. Hollins is a WR5 here, as a bet on a strong day from Maye.

Hunter Henry has been double covered at one of the highest rates in the league, but the Bengals don't double team very frequently, so this matchup could represent a bit of a reprieve there. More than anything else, though, Henry is a bet on a matchup where Maye should be very efficient and a game environment that could be very fun if Burrow is able to play. Henry is a TE1.

Rhamondre Stevenson has also returned to practice—listed as limited on both Wednesday and Thursday. His return will reduce TreVeyon Henderson's touches. But there's a difference between cutting into Henderson's workload and displacing him as the starter. The former is a given; the latter should not be assumed.

Henderson is coming off of workhorse usage against the Jets... which he turned into three TDs.

Henderson's success rate isn't ideal, but he's providing the offense with a true big-play threat.

Stevenson's success rate is significantly worse and he's been far less explosive.

Even with Stevenson back, Henderson profiles as a high-end RB3 as a bet on his explosiveness in an enticing game environment. Stevenson is an RB3 as a bet on a TD and positive game script against a weak defense.

Bengals

Implied Team Total: 22.75

Joe Flacco is coming off his worst start with the Bengals, returning to the form he displayed with the Browns earlier this year.

For the year, only Geno Smith, Dillon Gabriel, Jake Browning, Cam Ward, and JJ McCarthy have been worse in EPA per game. Only Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Cam Ward, JJ McCarthy, and Dillon Gabriel have a worse success rate than Joe Flacco.

Flacco's run of strong efficiency was built on feeding Ja'Marr Chase the ball. Last week, the Steelers were able to take Chase out of the game. They also contributed to him missing this game entirely, with Chase suspended for spitting on Jaylen Ramsey.

Chase represents a massive loss to the offense. He's the Bengals' queen on the chessboard; they move him around the formation and get him the ball at a variety of depths.

The only thing that could offset this loss is if, I don't know, Joe Burrow somehow returned ahead of schedule.

Two days in a row: The Bengals list QB Joe Burrow (toe) as a full participant. The plan was to see how Burrow responded today after being full yesterday. Looks like... pretty good.

Ian Rapoport (@rapsheet.bsky.social) 2025-11-20T21:20:15.465Z

On Tuesday, the Bengals were 8.5-point home underdogs. The line is down to 6 as of writing; the market is taking Burrow's chances of playing seriously.

If Burrow plays this week, he'll very likely be at less than 100% and less mobile than usual. He'll probably play almost entirely out of shotgun... but the Bengals spend most of their time in shotgun anyway.

The bigger issue is that the Bengals' offensive line remains extremely weak. Joe Flacco has been mitigating this issue with an ultra-quick 2.59-second time to throw. Theoretically, Burrow could adopt the same approach. But that's not really his game.

Last year, Burrow averaged a 2.69-second time to throw, just behind Sam Darnold (2.70) this year. Burrow doesn't hold the ball forever, but he usually has enough mobility to buy a little time and allow plays to develop a bit. If he lacks mobility behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, it could be a serious problem.

Fortunately for the Bengals, the Patriots' defense won't be at full strength, with star DT Milton Williams on injured reserve with an ankle injury.

Williams ranks DT3 in pass rush win rate and significantly weakens a pass rush that hasn't been bad, but isn't especially threatening without him.

Williams hasn't been very strong against the run this year, and so his absence should have less of an impact there, where the Patriots look stronger overall.

With a very weak defense unlikely to stifle the Patriots' offense and in a matchup where it makes sense to attack through the air, Zac Taylor will probably lean on his passing game this week.

Last week, for the first time since Flacco joined the team, they posted a negative PROE (-3%). But that was with Flacco playing very poorly, and they remained aggressive on 1st-and-10. This is a team built around the pass. And what's the point of bringing Burrow back if you're not planning to feature him?

The Bengals also posted a very healthy 66% pass rate last week. Even if they are less aggressive than usual without Chase, this is not a team that we should expect to fight against negative game script.

So, we can expect plenty of target volume for Tee Higgins this week. Higgins gets a tough draw against a secondary led by Christian Gonzalez and which is also getting strong play from No. 2 outside corner Carlton Davis. However, target volume can cure a lot of ills.

So can Joe Burrow. If Burrow suits up, Higgins shapes up as a WR1 despite facing difficult coverage.

If Burrow rests another week, Higgins is still a high-end WR2 as a bet on target volume.

Andrei Iosivas should see a bump in route volume with Chase out. But Iosivas already runs routes at a pretty high rate. The issue is that he rarely earns targets.

Iosivas is a WR4 with Burrow and a WR5 with Flacco. But regardless of who is at QB, the floor is low.

We may see more 12-personnel with Chase out of the lineup, which would allow the Bengals to get Noah Fant on the field more. Fant has been decent when given an opportunity, but has been in a part-time role, most recently splitting with Tanner Hudson.

Fant could very well be in his regular role this week, making his floor quite low. But he has enough upside here to put him in the TE2 mix. Hudson is in the high-end TE3 mix.

With Samaje Perine out of the lineup, Chase Brown has absolutely dominated backfield snaps and touches.

Brown's efficiency hasn't been great, particularly his success rate. He's been inconsistent enough that we'd expect the Bengals to mix in another option, like, say, Samaje Perine.

However, Perine is doubtful for this game, putting Brown in position for another elite workload. Even in a tough matchup, he's an RB1.

(Back to Quick Links)

Steelers at Bears, 1 PM

Steelers

Implied Team Total: 21.5

Aaron Rodgers is dealing with an injury to his non-throwing wrist and is uncertain to play this week.

Rodgers has not been impressive recently; he was unable to fully capitalize on an exceptionally easy matchup against the Bengals.

Rodgers is just QB26 in EPA per game and QB31 in success rate.

Rodgers' EPA per game over the last two years is very similar to Mason Rudolph's, who filled in reasonably well in Tennessee last year. Rudolph's success rate is much stronger, as well.

When watching last week's game, things didn't feel much different with Mason Rudolph at the helm than with Aaron Rodgers. If anything, Rudolph was an upgrade.

To be clear, I'll have more confidence in this offense if Rodgers plays than if he doesn't... but it's pretty close. This week, the Steelers are going against a weak Bears defense. They just need someone who can keep things on the rails, and Rudolph looks capable of doing that.

On paper, the Bears are a weak pass defense, and their season-long numbers understate how vulnerable they are. CBs Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are both on injured reserve, and Tyrique Stevenson has been limited in practice with a hip injury. Even assuming Stevenson suits up, he has been a liability in coverage this year. And if he doesn't play, we're looking at three backup CBs in the secondary.

Rudolph is a bit more of a wildcard than Rodgers. But in this matchup, that's not entirely a bad thing.

Rodgers has been very conservative this year, with a 5.9 aDOT—tied with Dillon Gabriel for the shallowest in the league.

Rudolph had a 7.6 aDOT on 256 dropbacks with the Titans last year and was at 7.5 on 125 dropbacks with the Steelers in 2023. So it's not like Rudolph will play with a bombs away style. But those aDOTs are in line with where CJ Stroud (7.5), Dak Prescott (7.6), and Justin Herbert (7.6) are this year. So there's upside for more downfield production if Rodgers is out.

But, either way, Arthur Smith is likely cooking up a run-heavy game plan this week. The Bears are not good against the run.

The Bears are profiling as a run funnel, not because you need to run on the Bears, but because you can do whatever you want—and a lot of teams will run if you give them that choice.

We've seen the Bengals, Cowboys, and Saints pass aggressively against Chicago, but more frequently, opponents pound the rock.

The Steelers have been more balanced this year than we usually expect for an Arthur Smith offense. But it would genuinely make sense to pivot to the run here and limit dropback volume for either an injured 41-year-old or a backup QB.

Jaylen Warren was injured against the Bengals, significantly reducing his playing time.

Kenneth Gainwell picked up the slack in a major way, turning in a huge fantasy week.

However, Warren is back at practice and expected to play this week. His ankle injury makes his outlook a bit shakier, but he's run well this year and gets a great rushing matchup. Warren is an RB2.

It's worth noting that most of Gainwell's value has come from being a receiver. Assuming Warren is good to go, Gainwell will be better off if the Steelers, who are 2.5-point road underdogs, trail in this game.

If the Steelers are able to pound the rock in this game, they will probably lean on Jaylen Warren. But if Warren is at all limited or the Steelers just want to manage his workload after an injury scare, Gainwell could see more run than usual. He's an RB3.

If the Steelers are able to get rolling downhill, that will likely mean additional snaps for Darnell Washington, who posted 61% route participation in the Steelers' 34-12 win over the Bengals.

He ran more routes than both Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth.

This sets up as a tricky spot for the Steelers' tight ends. They will likely want to get Washington involved again—they will want to play from ahead and dictate the run.

However, with uncertainty at QB and on the road, there's no guarantee the Steelers can play from ahead this week. All three tight ends are in the low-end TE2 mix.

The potential for heavy personnel also makes Calvin Austin's outlook shakier. He fell to just 36% route participation last week, with Roman Wilson at 64%.

With Austin playing 47% of his snaps in the slot this year, he's susceptible to a lack of 11-personnel. After starting to look like he was firmly in WR5 territory with strong route participation since returning from injury, Austin isn't really even in dart-throw consideration here.

DK Metcalf has been pretty quiet this season, operating as a non-dominant No. 1 target on a below-average passing offense. However, there's upside this week, with the Steelers potentially trailing against a very weak secondary. Regardless of who is at QB, he's a WR2.

Bears

Implied Team Total: 24

The Bears are on a three-game winning streak and have won seven of their last eight.

At the same time... this is a team that had to pull out late-game heroics against the Bengals, Giants (who lost Dart to a concussion), and Vikings. They also beat the Raiders and Commanders by a combined two points, and lost to the Tyler Huntley Ravens. Their only multi-score win of the season is against the Saints (26-14).

Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has repeatedly turned in weak efficiency, including last week against the Vikings. If he's not playing the Cowboys or Bengals... Williams just isn't likely to turn in an efficient four quarters.

Williams ranks just QB25 in EPA per game and QB29 in success rate.

Williams has a ridiculously long 3.39-second time to throw, the slowest in the NFL. But Williams is attacking downfield and scrambling well. We're getting some playmaking here, even as we're also dealing with inconsistency and the potential for big negatives.

This matchup offers potential for big plays... for either the offense or the defense. The Steelers are allowing explosive passes at a high rate, but they also have a dangerous pass rush that is getting to the QB quickly.

If big-play hunting on the Bears' side, Rome Odunze looks like the best bet. The Steelers are playing man at a 33% clip, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Against man, Odunze has a 28% TPRR with 2.27 YPRR. This matchup should reinforce the usual pecking order, with Odunze on top.

At the same time, this matchup creates some serious downside for Caleb Williams, who will be going against a deep pass rushing group led by Nick Herbig, who leads all EDGE players in pass rush win rate.

Odunze is a boom/bust high-end WR3.

DJ Moore looks much riskier than Odunze and has much weaker upside. He's a solid bet for routes, but is just a WR5 here.

Moore's outlook is slightly weakened by the Bears' new slot WR, Luther Burden. Burden flipped Olamide Zaccheaus last week, logging a season-high 61% route participation with 52% of his snaps in the slot.

Burden has been earning targets at a similar rate to Zaccheaus and a much stronger rate than Moore. With a shallow-target role, he's also an interesting fit for a matchup that should include some designed quick-hitters. Burden is also a WR5.

At tight end, we're still looking at a split. And, at least last week, that split favored Cole Kmet.

Given how much better Colston Loveland has been this year, the split usage is pretty maddening. However, there's no reason to expect it to change this week, other than the assumption that, surely, Ben Johnson will turn things over to the rookie eventually. But this week, Loveland is just a TE2.

Williams has had some very fun moments in recent weeks, but the Bears do not look like a team eager to feature their QB. They've been consistently tilted to the run this year. We'll likely need the Steelers to push them to generate strong passing volume.

If the Steelers struggle on offense or play very conservatively, the Bears will be free to attack a Steelers run defense that has been thoroughly mediocre.

We could also see the Bears pivot to the run as a means of hiding Williams, if he struggles against an effective pass rush.

D'Andre Swift is set to lead the backfield this week, after retaking his starting role in Week 10.

Kyle Monangai's role over the last two games has been very similar to his pre-Week 9 usage.

And, even with Monangai's very strong Week 9 performance, this usage is defensible. Monongai has been very consistent, but doesn't offer a ton of burst.

Swift has been uncharacteristically consistent this year and offers more burst and more receiving playmaking. Likely in a similar role to where he's been over the last two weeks, Swift is a low-end RB2 here.

(Back to Quick Links)

Vikings at Packers, 1 PM

Vikings

Implied Team Total: 17.25

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