Week 6 Walkthrough: Turning the Volume to 11
Welcome to the Week 6 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the sixth glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Seahawks at Jaguars, 1 PM
- Rams at Ravens, 1 PM
- Cowboys at Panthers, 1 PM
- Chargers at Dolphins, 1 PM
- Patriots at Saints, 1 PM
- Cardinals at Colts, 1 PM
- Browns at Steelers, 1 PM
- Titans at Raiders, 4:05 PM
- Bengals at Packers, 4:25 PM
- 49ers at Buccaneers, 4:25 PM
Seahawks at Jaguars, 1 PM
Seahawks
Implied Team Total: 23.25
The Seahawks have one of the clearest offensive identities in the NFL right now. Their goal, their purpose, is to dictate the run.
They now get a Jaguars defense that is profiling as a pass funnel. But Mike McDonald isn't interested in being funneled. The Seahawks are going to do what they do.
Even in a 38-35 shootout loss to the Bucs, Seattle posted just a 65% pass rate and a 0% PROE.
It's not like the Jaguars' run defense is especially formidable, either.
After a loss, the Seahawks will be looking to get back on track here, and they very likely plan to do so by establishing the run.
Hilariously, the Seahawks cannot quit Zach Charbonnet.
He's your crush's shitty boyfriend, and, during a week-long breakup in September, you told her exactly what you think about him.
Zach's gone; shoot your shot. Well, guess what, bud? Zach's back.
Nice guy Kenneth Walker leads the team in friendzone carries, but his role is severely limited by Charbonnet's grasp on the Seahawks' backfield.
The good and deeply frustrating news for Walker is that he really is the better man here. Granted, it's a low bar.
Walker has outperformed Charbonnet across the board.
There's another potential silver lining. If the Seahawks are able to play this game the way they'd prefer, there should be a decent workload for both backs against a middling Jaguars run defense.
Walker profiles as a high-end RB3 with Charbonnet as an RB3.
In the passing game, team-level volume is a consistent concern. But dropback consistency has been a major bright spot. Sam Darnold leads the NFL with a 53% success rate. He's also QB6 in EPA per game. Even on limited volume, he's delivering elite value at the position.
Darnold is also on an absolute tear over the last three weeks.
Darnold is likely to fall off from his recent level of play at least slightly on variance alone. But it's always a great sign to see a QB playing this well.
Darnold now gets a Jaguars pass defense that looks reasonably challenging. They don't have a high-end pass rush, but have been very strong in coverage and don't have any significant injuries on the backend.
However, even if Darnold takes a step back in efficiency, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a very safe bet for a productive outing.
JSN now leads the NFL with a 4.14 YPRR.
Obviously, he's running hot in YPT to get there. He'd need something like a 44% TPRR to be sustainably hitting a 4.14 YPRR... and that level of TPRR would also be unsustainable.
But although Smith-Njigba is a lock to drop off in efficiency at some point, the fact that he's efficiently delivering on a 34% target share is the most important thing to consider here.
The only issue is overall droback volume. So let's talk about that. The Seahawks would prefer to play things through the run game. But they may not be in charge here as slight road underdogs. And as we'll get to, the Seahawks' secondary is very banged up, and the Jags' offensive line—if healthy—looks capable of holding up fairly well in pass protection.
Smith-Njigba is definitely a safe play. No one would deny that. Smith-Njigba is consistently seeing an elite role and delivering elite efficiency on a weekly basis.
But this matchup also provides ceiling, driven by the Jaguars' potential to push the Seahawks to the air. JSN is an elite WR1.
Cooper Kupp's role is far less enticing, but he's still delivering solid efficiency on a 21% target share. He's a WR4 as a bet that the Jaguars push the Seahawks.
At tight end, AJ Barner still has limited route participation, but he came alive as a receiver last week.
Barner's role is weak enough to push him into TE3 territory, but his involvement is worth keeping an eye on.
Jaguars
Implied Team Total: 24.25
EPA works by comparing a baseline expected point number before the snap, based on the down, distance, and field position, to where the ball ends up postsnap. It's probably a good thing that EPA doesn't know what happens during the play because I'm pretty sure the machines couldn't handle this.
Trevor Lawrence's game winning touchdown set to Chumbawamba's Tubthumping is perfection. pic.twitter.com/8XRmS0oUPr
— Nash Henry (@NashJagsNats22) October 7, 2025
As part of their last-minute win over the Chiefs, Lawrence turned in his second-most efficient game of the season.
Overall, Lawrence has been mediocre, and profiles as the type of quarterback where you want an easy matchup on your side.
Unfortunately, Lawrence now faces a Seahawks defense that has a very strong pass rush. Seattle is getting pressure quickly and without blitzing. And their front four is impressively deep, with EDGE Boye Mafe ranking seventh in pass rush win rate, and DTs Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed ranking 13th and 14th, respectively.
However, the Seahawks don't rate as highly in coverage, which has contributed to mediocre pass defense numbers this year.
The Seahawks' coverage issues look to be getting worse, as injuries pile up. Cornerbacks Riq Woolen (concussion) and Devon Witherspoon (knee), and safety Julian Love (hamstring) are all uncertain for this game, making the Seahawks a sneaky pass defense to target. Woolen (limited, concussion) is the only one of the three who has practiced this week.
The Seahawks have a reputation as an elite defense, and on their best day, they very well may be. But this week they're unlikely to be at full strength.
The Seahawks' pass rush could also be mitigated by a Jaguars offensive line that has played at an elite level this year. Although with C Robert Hainsey (hamstring) yet to practice this week, and RT Aton Harrison, RG Patrick Mekari, and LG Ezra Cleveland all limited in practice, the Jaguars' final injury report will be important to monitor. This is not a spot where you want to be down multiple offensive linemen.
Playing shorthanded is especially difficult because it's hard to hide the passing game. The Seahawks are profiling as a legitimately elite run defense.
The Seahawks are strong enough on the ground that they are profiling as a pass funnel.
Since Week 1, every Seahawks opponent has had at least a 65% pass rate.
The Jaguars have had a slight lean to the pass this year and are coming off their highest pass rate of the year.
Against the Chiefs, they also posted a season-high 12% PROE on 1st down.
Generally, I'd categorize the Jaguars as a balanced team, but they don't look likely to stubbornly run the ball if passing is the path of least resistance.
Against Kansas City, we finally saw Brian Thomas get going a little bit with a 4/80/0 receiving line on six targets. Ironically, Thomas has his weakest first-read target rate of the year and an unimpressive 18% TPRR. But we needed proof of concept on his efficiency, and we got it.
Thomas remains a big-time positive regression candidate from a yardage and fantasy points perspective. And with the Seahawks dealing with injuries on the backend, this looks like a good spot to bet on big plays. Thomas is a low-end WR1.
Travis Hunter had an even more efficient day than Brian Thomas, highlighted by a top-notch contested catch.
What a sick catch by Travis Hunter pic.twitter.com/sdf2ZQ0LMY
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 7, 2025
Unfortunately, Hunter's underlying target stats were pretty weak. He did post his second-highest route participation of the season, which is nice to see. But he just hasn't been the focal point on offense that I was expecting.
In this matchup, we may see the Jaguars utilize Hunter more as a quick target against an elite pass rush. But even still, it's hard to trust him as more than a WR4.
With Breton Strange (hip) on injured reserve for the next month or so, we're likely to see Hunter Long at tight end. Long filled in for Strange last week.
Johnny Mundt also mixed in.
For his career, Long has a 0.70 YPRR and a 12% TPRR. It's not a lock for Long to be in a full-time role. He could end up in a 1A/1B type split with Mundt. Long isn't a bad punt play, but the floor is very low.
In the backfield, Travis Etienne gets a tough matchup and is coming off his lowest carry share of the season.
The good news is that Trevor Lawrence, not Bhayshul Tuten, was stealing most of the carry share.
Etienne still has a clear lead as the top back in Jacksonville, and his 16% target share was a nice sign, given his limited receiving role this year. Etienne also posted a 46% success rate against the Chiefs, somewhat easing concerns about his consistency. Etienne still profiles as a frustratingly inconsistent runner, but it's not an emergency. He's an RB2.
Rams at Ravens, 1 PM
Rams
Implied Team Total: 26
The book on the Rams is pretty straightforward. You'd better put pressure on Matthew Stafford. If not, he will carve you up.
Against the Texans and Eagles, Stafford has struggled. But he was excellent against the Titans and 49ers.
If you can't get pressure against Stafford, you at least need to be able to take away his first read. Stafford is attempting first-read throws at a very high rate and cooking on those throws.
The Ravens defense—you know this is where we were headed—isn't generating pressure... and only the Jets are worse against first-read throws.
The Ravens have also been highly susceptible to motion and play action, which the Rams deploy at high rates and with success.
From an injury standpoint, the Ravens' defense is actually trending in the right direction. After missing last week, S Kyle Hamilton practiced in full on Thursday. And CB Marlon Humphrey got in a limited practice after a Wednesday DNP. Still, they are likely to be without CB Chidobe Awuzie and LB Roquan Smith. They'll definitely be without defensive linemen Broderick Washington and Nnamdi Madubuike, who are both on injured reserve. Madubuike is a particularly big loss.
Meanwhile, the Rams are likely to be without starting RT Rob Havenstein. But, relative to the Ravens, they are healthy.
Even with key starters out at all three levels, the Ravens have been playing a ton of man coverage. On the season, the Ravens have a 37% man coverage rate, fifth-highest. Over the last two weeks, dealing with a brutal cluster of injuries, the Ravens are up to 38%, fourth-highest in the league. Maybe with over half of their starters out last week, that approach was actually sharp from a communication or shecme fluency standpoint. I don't really know. What I do know is that getting man coverage against at least one backup cornerback is extremely bullish for the Rams' wide receivers, especially Davante Adams.
Adams has been good against zone this year, posting a 22% TPRR and 1.91 YPRR, but he's been significantly better against man, with a 33% TPRR and 2.38 YPRR. Combined with the quality of the man coverage he could face here and that the Ravens' lack of a pass rush should help generate big play opportunities... this is a true spike week setup for Adams. He's a WR1.
Puka Nacua has also shredded man coverage this year. In fact, he's been significantly better than Adams with a 40% TPRR and a 3.82 YPRR against man. It's just that Puka versus man hasn't been much better than Puka versus zone. Against zone, he's averaged a 39% TPRR and 3.71 YPRR.
Regardless of the coverage, Nacua is crushing. So, in that sense, this matchup isn't a massive boost for him. But let's back back to the fact that the Ravens don't take away first-read throws or generate a pass rush... and that Stafford is attempting first-read throws at a very high rate of 69%. Who are those throws predominantly going to again?
Oh, that's right.
Nacua has an insane 33% first-read target rate. His lowest mark of the season is an elite 23%. His TPRR numbers are also astronomical—he's hit 50% twice.
There have been several games this season that have looked like great spots for both Nacua and Adams, but typically with the caveat that it'll probably resolve into an either/or.
That same caveat probably applies here, the result of an overall game environment that may not require a ton of Rams passing volume.
Sean McVay has shown more of a willingness to pass this year, though, even from a position of strength. With a 63% pass rate on a 60% expected pass rate, the Rams are playing very similarly to the Broncos (62%/60%).
There are some minor weather concerns in this game, with a chance of rain and some wind. However, so far, this looks to fall below the threshold where we'd expect it to impact the game in a meaningful way.
The bigger issue for the passing game is that the Rams are 7.5-point road favorites, and I don't expect the Ravens to push them any more than the market does.
But the Rams also have a 26-point implied team total and are coming off a gut-wrenching loss. They're expected to put up points and are motivated to take care of business. If the Rams lean on Stafford in a great matchup, there's enough upside for everyone to eat.
If Stafford ends up having a good-not-great day, it's likely because Kyren Williams had a great day on the ground. The Ravens have also been awful against the run.
Williams was back up to a 91% snap share against the 49ers, but in a game where Blake Corum was benched for a fumble. Still, Williams has had control of the backfield all year, even if not in dominant 2023-24 fashion.
Williams has run well this year, delivering impressive consistency with decent burst. This is about as soft as matchups can get—he's an RB1.
Ravens
Implied Team Total: 18.5
Cooper Rush was awful in relief against the Chiefs. He was then very inefficient against the Texans as well. If he's not careful, the Ravens are going to trade for Joe Flacco.
However, Rush was actually pretty good against the Texans from a success rate perspective.
Per Kevin Cole, Rush lost 16.5 EPA—what data scientists refer to as a "shitload"—on three interceptions and a sack.
The silver lining here is that these massive negatives aren't something we should expect every week, especially when Rush isn't facing an elite pass rush like he was last week.
But... Rush now faces the Rams, who have an elite pass rush.
The silver lining for the Ravens is that LT Ronnie Stanley should be back this week; he practiced in full on Thursday.
Still, with a similar test to the Texans on tap this week, the Ravens could end up hiding Rush, as they did last week, with a -16% PROE.
With the Ravens likely fighting game script, and with Rush very unlikely to be effective, this is a very tough spot for the Ravens' receivers. Zay Flowers is doing what he can, though. Against the Texans, he willed his way to a 5/72/0 receiving line with a 14.4 YPT.
This week, he does at least get a Rams defense that is double-covering at a low rate, and that's nice to see for a clear No. 1 target. Flowers is a bet-on-talent WR2.
At tight end, Mark Andrews had his route participation tick up last week.
Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely was in a very similar role to Week 4.
This is a bad setup for Andrews because it's a bad setup for the Ravens. But he does at least look like the clear No. 1 option at tight end. He's a high-end TE2.
Rams opponents are averaging a -3% PROE against them with a 2% PROE shift to the run. Los Angeles look like a run funnel. This is another data point in favor of the idea that the Ravens will be conservative here.
However, running on a team to avoid their pass rush is not the same thing as attacking a weak run defense. The Rams have played the run well this year.
Derrick Henry has been explosive this year, but his success rate is a major concern at this point. Sure, maybe when Jackson is back, it won't seem like a big issue. But if you're looking to lean on an RB as the engine of a one-dimensional offense, you'd like him to have a better success rate than Zach Charbonnet, especially if he doesn't catch passes. Henry is a volume-based RB2.
Cowboys at Panthers, 1 PM
Cowboys
Implied Team Total: 26.25
Last week, the Cowboys faced an unimpressive Jets pass rush and a Jets offense that couldn't take full advantage of Dallas' vulnerable defense.
As a result, the Cowboys were able to play from ahead.
In that game script, they had a lean to the pass.
Dallas' playstyle against the Jets is notable because, heading into Week 6, they face a weak Panthers pass rush and a Panthers offense that has been hit-or-miss this year.
The Cowboys are 3-point road favorites here, but even if they play from ahead, they look likely to maintain a decent pass-volume floor.
And if the Cowboys are pushed by a Panthers offense that has definitely had its moments, they look willing to play to the script.
Fundamentally, the Cowboys look pretty willing to operate close to the game script, putting the onus on the Panthers' offense to make this a truly exciting game.
As we'll get to, I'm a bit skeptical of the Panthers willingly airing it. I view this matchup as somewhat similar to last week's against the Jets. Sure, the Panthers are more willing to pass than the Jets. But they're showing pretty strong signs of wanting to lean on the run if possible.
So, the Cowboys' passing volume looks a bit fragile here. Regardless, though, they should be able to pass the ball efficiently.
Dak Prescott has played very well this year, ranking QB8 with 10.9 EPA per game, close to MVP-level efficiency. His 47% success rate is more good than elite, but he's still been very impressive.
Prescott is also coming off his two most impressive games of the season, both of which have been without CeeDee Lamb. This passing offense could be very dangerous once it's back to full strength.
In addition to Lamb, the Cowboys have been without multiple starting offensive linemen, with C Cooper Beebe on injured reserve and RG Tyler Booker and RT Tyler Guyton dealing with injuries. Guyton practiced in full on Thursday, a hopeful sign for his ability to clear the concussion protocol. Booker (ankle) has yet to practice.
But even if not at full strength, Dallas' offensive line should be able to hold up against an unimposing Panthers pass rush.
Even with offensive line injuries this year, the Cowboys have done a good job keeping Prescott clean. And Jake Ferguson has been a massive part of this plan.
Ferguson has just a 4.3 aDOT this season and, over the last three weeks, has been between 3.1 and 3.3.
If the Cowboys can protect better this week, Ferguson might be less of a focal point. At the same time, Ferguson's worst TPRR of the year is 21%. With Lamb still working back, Ferguson is a safe bet for targets.
There's also upside here. Ferguson isn't just a shallow outlet. He's been a zone beater. Against zone coverage, Ferguson has a 34% TPRR. Only Puka Nacua (39%) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (34%) are higher. Ferguson now gets a Panthers defense playing zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate.
In a potentially high-scoring game environment, Ferguson is an elite TE1.
George Pickens is coming off a quieter game against the Jets, seeing just a 13% TPRR.
Even with Lamb out, Pickens has had very deep aDOTs. That makes him a bit of a boom/bust bet. But it also makes him a nice fit for this matchup. If Prescott has more time to throw, Pickens could beneft in a big way.
As an upside bet on this matchup, Pickens a low-end WR1.
Ryan Flournoy is coming off a 6/114/0 receiving line, on a 31% target share. He didn't lead the team; Jake Ferguson did (35%). But it was still an impressive breakout game.
Even with Jalen Tolbert (91%) easily leading Flournoy in route participation last week, Flournoy is the much more interesting dart throw.
Last year, the Panthers were a major run funnel. But that hasn't been true this year. Opponents have a 0% PROE against Carolina, in part because the Falcons stubbornly stuck to the run in a shutout loss. The Patriots were also able to lean on the run against the Panthers in a Week 4 victory, but as we saw last week, there's no reason to avoid passing on the Panthers.
This isn't a locked-in run-heavy setup for Javonte Williams. But Williams is clearly the Cowboys' locked-in No. 1 RB.
And with elite rushing efficiency, Williams is giving a middle finger to the haters.
Don't be insulted, though. I'm sure he just meant to give us a thumbs up.
Jerry Jones on @1053thefan on giving the middle finger during Sunday’s game in New Jersey: “That was unfortunate. There was a swarm of Cowboys fans out front. It was right after we made our last touchdown. I put up the wrong show of hand. The intention was thumbs up.” pic.twitter.com/3QS6ZkD4B1
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 7, 2025
This year's Panthers might not be a run funnel, but that doesn't mean you can't run on them. As part of what will probably be a balanced attack, and likely tied to an effective passing attack, Williams is an excellent bet for a valuable workload, and he's a much stronger bet for efficiency than I thought possible six weeks ago. Williams is an RB1.
Panthers
Implied Team Total: 23.25
The Panthers are coming off an impressive come-from-behind win against the Dolphins. But from an efficiency perspective, it wasn't a great showing from Bryce Young. Honestly, he hasn't had a truly impressive game all season.
In EPA per game, Young ranks QB34, ahead of only Geno Smith, Cooper Rush, Jake Browning, Cam Ward, JJ McCarthy, and Joe Flacco.
Let's be honest—Young is not a good quarterback. But, especially as a fantasy facilitator, he's not terrible. Although he doesn't have a super fantasy-friendly skillset, he's typically able to facilitate production for at least one receiver.
This year, that receiver is very clearly Tetairoa McMillan, who is dominating targets and producing efficiently.
McMillan is helped by the fact that Young has been attempting first-read throws at a very high rate. If the rookie weren't already installed as Carolina's clear-cut No. 1 target, that wouldn't necessarily matter. But he is. Young is functionally force-feeding TMac targets. Young hasn't been efficient on his first-read throws, but from McMillan's perspective, we'll happily take the targets.
And McMillan now gets a Cowboys defense that has been absolutely awful against the pass this year.
The only note of caution here is that the Cowboys play very little man coverage, and McMillan has been dominant against man; he's been less impressive versus zone. But, I tend to think that this matchup is less about the scheme specifics and more about the macro—the Cowboys defense sucks. McMillan is a high-end WR2.
With Xavier Legette back in the lineup last week, he ran a route on 83% of dropbacks. But even in this soft matchup, he's just a dart throw. With Jalen Coker and Ja'Tavion Sanders both logging full practices on Thursday, his target competition will probably be much more significant this week.
With Young struggling this year, volume has been crucial to Carolina's passing game, which makes the Panthers' recent trend toward the run very concerning.
The Panthers haven't been a little more run-based over the last two weeks; they've shifted hard to a true run-heavy approach.
With Rico Dowdle running incredibly efficiently against the Dolphins, this didn't hurt the Panthers' receivers too much. But it could be a real problem if the Panthers use a grind-it-out style against the Cowboys. At that point, we could be talking about them fighting game script like they did against the Patriots.
If the Panthers want to stubbornly lean on the run here, they have the matchup for it. They probably won't win with that approach, but against a weak run defense, they have good odds of running their way to a comfortable loss.
Given that the Panthers now have a -3% PROE and are playing slowly, it's hard to trust them to take full advantage of this matchup.
The Cowboys are also highly susceptible to motion and play action... but the Panthers don't use either at a high rate, again highlighting the potential for them to leave meat on the bone.
And Carolina would not be the first team to go run-heavy against the Cowboys. The only teams to have a positive PROE against Dallas are the Giants and the Jets (the Jets!).
Rico Dowdle snapped his finger and turned his weak, small-sample efficiency chart into a high-end, still-pretty-small-sample efficiency chart. He now looks like an explosive runner. And he's been consistent all season.
Dowdle dominated carries for the Panthers against the Dolphins and had a solid receiving role.
Dowdle now gets a soft matchup and could be part of an offense that relies too much on the run. That's not ideal overall, but it's pretty great for Dowdle. With Hubbard not having practiced this week and trending towards out, Dowdle is a low-end RB1.
