Week 7 London Walkthrough: Davante Adams, Coronation
Welcome to the Week 7 London Game Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for a glorious morning of international football.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Rams at Jaguars, 9:30 AM
Rams
Implied Team Total: 23.75
The Rams will officially be without Puka Nacua this week as he recovers from an ankle injury. It's a smart move—this gives Nacua two weeks off with the Rams heading into their bye in Week 8. He also won't be subjected to an international flight after playing an NFL game on a sprained ankle. Smart stuff from Sean McVay and company. Still, it's a bummer not to have him out there. Nacua has been the best WR in football this year.
I've noted several times that, if not for Nacua, Davante Adams' elite target profile would be a huge early-season talking point. On almost any other team, he would be the clear-cut No. 1.
Adams will very clearly be the Rams No. 1 when they take on the Jaguars in London.
The Rams will be facing a Jaguars pass defense that has played decently in coverage, but is in the process of working in Greg Newsome at outside corner, after trading for him ahead of Week 6. Newsome hasn't played very well this year, and if he's not ready for a bigger role, we could see more from Travis Hunter at cornerback. In either case, this is a solid secondary, but not a shutdown unit.
The Jaguars' pass rush looks pretty weak, which is welcome news for a Rams team that is allowing quick pressure at a high rate and will be without RT Rob Havenstein this week.
When Stafford is free to operate the Rams offense—when he is protected from the opposing pass rush—he has been very efficient. He is tied with Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold for the highest first-read attempt rate in the NFL. And he's the ninth most efficient QB on plays that end after just one read. As an opposing defense, you do not want to let Stafford execute the primary design of the play. He will pick you apart.
When Stafford has to work past his first read, though, things have been far less efficient, which helps explain why Stafford's overall efficiency is solid but not especially impressive.
With Nacua out, we can expect Adams to dominate first-read targets. Honestly, by the standards of a normal offense... he already has been. But I still expect things to ramp up from here. Adams is a high-end WR1.
With Puka missing a big chunk of Week 6, Jordan Whittington filled in for his routes. But it's one thing to play the Puka role... it's quite another to be Puka.
It's also important to note that Tutu Atwell missed Week 6 but will be back this week.
Both Atwell and Whittington have uninspiring target profiles.
Whittington is a safer bet to take over some of Nacua's role. Atwell has typically been more of a deep threat. But I don't view Puka's role as very replaceable. Or, put differently, the role isn't driving the production; Puka is. Both Atwell and Whittington should see meaningful routes this week, and both are in the WR4 mix.
Tyler Higbee could also see a target bump with Nacua out. He posted just 48% route participation against the Ravens, although that is probably related to the hip injury he dealt with ahead of the game. Still, Higbee has been in a part-time role this year, and is likely to be in the 65% range even if he jumps up from last week's concerningly low mark. He's a low-end TE2.
With a 3% PROE, the Rams have had a clear lean to the pass this year. But... until this week, they've also been game planning around Puka Nacua. Without their star WR, they could switch things up.
From a fantasy perspective, a pivot to the run here isn't a huge concern. There should still be plenty of volume for Adams, and with the ancillary weapons, we're mostly hoping for a cheap TD.
Volume actually looks more uncertain in the run game, where Kyren Williams doesn't have the grip on carries he once did.
After an in-game benching for a fumble in Week 6, Blake Corum returned to a meaningful workload against the Ravens. He's a bit of a thorn in Williams' side.
Williams has been a consistent runner this year, but, as you know, he's not much of a breakaway runner. He delivers value by accumulating chunk runs and scoring TDs.
With Nacua out, and the Rams as 3-point favorites here, we could see the Rams lean on the run a bit more than usual, easing concerns about the carry split.
Williams will be taking on a Jaguars defense that the Seahawks showed zero hesitation about running on.
The Jagars aren't bad against the run, but they aren't a defense that the Rams need to avoid. As part of what could be a more balanced game plan with Nacua out, Williams is a low-end RB1.
Jaguars
Implied Team Total: 20.75
Heading into Week 6, Trevor Lawrence had a 2.70-second time to throw and a 7% deep pass rate. Last week, against a depleted Seahawks secondary, Lawrence had a time to throw of 3.07-seconds and a 10% deep pass rate. It wasn't lost on Lawrence and Liam Coen that the Seahawks were without S Julian Love, CB Devon Witherspoon, and CB Riq Woolen. They tried to exploit the Seahawks' secondary by dialing up more downfield shots.
Unfortunately, Lawrence wasn't able to execute.
In fairness to Lawrence, he should have had another TD on last week's stat sheet. Then again, that play was 1% Lawrence and 99% Brian Thomas.
INSANE BRIAN THOMAS JR CIRCUS TOUCHDOWN….
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 12, 2025
Called back because Travis Hunter was offsides 😬 pic.twitter.com/8dEFVsdhI6
The actual excuse for Lawrence last week was that the Seahawks' pass rush exposed the Jaguars' offensive line. The Jaguars have protected very well this year, but against a pretty soft pass rush schedule. Houston is the only other strong pass rush they've faced. And last week, the Seahawks took advantage of Lawrence's longer time to throw, generating a 54% pressure rate. Only the Broncos (59%) in their demolition of Justin Fields posted a higher pressure rate last week.
The Jaguars' offensive line will be put to the test again here. They face an elite Rams pass rush. The Rams are also playing very well in coverage. This is a tough passing matchup.
Lawrence hasn't been awful this year, but on the EPA chart, he's in the QB purgatory zone, joined by Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams. These QBs are all turning in acceptable-ish efficiency, averaging between 1.1 and 4.3 EPA per game. But they also have weak success rates between 42% and 45%. For his part, Lawrence is at 2.4 EPA per game and a 44% success rate. At that level of inconsistency, it's fair to wonder if a guy is really the answer at the game's most important position.
With a 2% PROE, the Jaguars have had a slight lean to the pass this year, and like the Rams, they've been pass-first from generally positive game script. They haven't been forced to the air; they look like a balanced team, but one with a genuine tilt to the pass.
However, in this matchup, we'll likely see the Jaguars shift a bit to the run, rather than subject Trevor Lawrence to the Rams' pass rush. Even with C Robert Hainsey returning from his Week 6 absence, the Rams' defensive line looks to have the edge in this matchup.
And, as opponents work to protect their QBs, they've been shifting to the run against the Rams. To an extent, I expect the Jaguars to follow suit.
The only issue... is that the Rams are also good at defending the run.
However, on the ground, it's not clear that the Rams have the edge. The Jagaurs have run the ball effectively this year, with Travis Etienne proving to be explosive, if inconsistent, out of the backfield.
Etienne is ceding a bit of work to Bhayshul Tuten, but he is consistently seeing starter-level workloads, and his receiving role has actually improved over the last two weeks. Etienne is a low-end RB2.
In the receiving game, Brian Thomas has been operating as the Jaguars' clear-cut No. 1, and remains a positive regression candidate from both a yardage and fantasy points perspective. This is a tough matchup, but Thomas is a high-end WR2.
Travis Hunter is coming off his highest route participation of the season, while still playing 22 snaps at cornerback. He might be at more like 76% route participation this week, rather than the 86% mark he hit last week. But worries that he was headed for part-time WR usage, worries created by his low route participation in Weeks 2-3, look to be a thing of the past.
Of course, it would be nice if Hunter's biggest contribution on offense last week wasn't an offsides penalty.
Hunter's profile is increasingly difficult to make excuses for. His playing time isn't ideal, but it's not awful. The issue is he just doesn't seem to be a big part of the game plan, and he's not earning targets at a high enough rate to make up for that. His profile is basically identical to Dyami Brown's right now. It's a bummer. Hunter is a WR4.
Filling in for Brenton Strange last week, Hunter Long was a part-time player and a full-time afterthought. You almost certainly have a better option at tight end, even if the Jaguars don't right now.
Pat Kerrane
Pat Kerrane
