Week 7 Walkthrough: Rashee Rice's Return

Welcome to the Week 7 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the seventh glorious football Sunday of 2025.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Quick Links

• Raiders at Chiefs, 1 PM
  • Raiders
  • Chiefs
• Patriots at Titans, 1 PM
  • Patriots
  • Titans
• Eagles at Vikings, 1 PM
  • Eagles
  • Vikings
• Saints at Bears, 1 PM
  • Saints
  • Bears
• Dolphins at Browns, 1 PM
  • Dolphins
  • Browns
• Panthers at Jets, 1 PM
  • Panthers
  • Jets
• Giants at Broncos, 4:05 PM
  • Giants
  • Broncos
• Colts at Chargers, 4:05 PM
  • Colts
  • Chargers
• Commanders at Cowboys, 4:25 PM
  • Commanders
  • Cowboys
• Packers at Cardinals, 4:25 PM
  • Packers
  • Cardinals

Raiders at Chiefs, 1 PM

Raiders

Implied Team Total: 17

Early in the season, the Raiders looked willing to pass the ball as necessary. They posted an 8% PROE in their Week 1 win over the Patriots. The following week against the Chargers, they had a 6% PROE and a very pass-heavy 76% pass rate, the 16th-highest mark we've seen this year.

But after Week 2, the Raiders shifted hard to the run for two games, and they haven't had a positive PROE since.

It's a safe bet that Geno Smith's disastrous efficiency against the Chargers contributed here. Brock Bowers' Week 1 knee injury can't have helped either.

Regardless, the Raiders are now playing like a team committed—and potentially overly committed—to establishing the run.

That's not ideal, considering the Raiders are among the least efficient rushing teams in the league. The Chiefs haven't been great against the run, but with Patrick Mahomes captaining the 11.5-point home favorites, a run-heavy attack is unlikely to lead to victory.

There are some signs of hope, though. The Raiders have pulled back from the run-heavy brink over the last two weeks, and were even pass-first on 1st down last week.

Smith has also pulled out of a tailspin and now looks like a QB whom the Raiders could justifiably bench, but who is also a minor positive regression candidate. His efficiency profile is similar to Bryce Young's and Justin Fields'.

This week, Smith faces a Chiefs secondary that is covering extremely well. The Chiefs also pressure at a high rate, which is a problem for the Raiders' offensive line, which still has star LT Kolton Miller on injured reserve.

This is a boom/bust setup for the Raiders' passing game. There's a clear path to them belly-flopping in a tough matchup, where they're likely to become one-dimensional quickly.

However, if the Raiders can get Jeanty going early, they could find success in the play-action passing game, which the Chiefs have not defended well this year.

The worry for the passing game, though, is that the Raiders refuse to pass here even if they get behind.

That worry is enhanced by the fact that Jakobi Meyers (knee, toe, trade) looks unlikely to suit up this week after back-to-back DNPs. Chip Kelly said he expected Meyers to suit up Thursday. And even though he didn't, it's possible he practices on Friday and ends up playing.

But even if Meyers does play, he's tricky. On top of everything else, the Chiefs will likely be attempting to take him away. With Bowers out, Meyers is clearly the Raiders' top receiver, and the Chiefs double-team at one of the highest rates in the league. Meyers is a boom/bust high-end WR3 if he goes.

Tre Tucker, as usual, is in play as a WR4 dart.

Dont'e Thornton was benched last week for Jack Bech. Bech has a long way to go as a target earner, but he could be in line for some volume if Meyers sits. Bech is a contingency dart throw.

Honestly, Michael Mayer might be the most interesting receiver here, for fantasy purposes. Mayer posted very strong numbers against the Titans. With just a 2.4 aDOT, he was purely an underneath accumulator. But he's an interesting way to bet on a high dropback rate. Mayer is a low-end TE1.

If the Raiders somehow pull off the upset here, Ashton Jeanty will need to have a big game. Behind a rough offensive line, Jeanty has struggled with consistency. But he's breaking a ton of tackles and providing breakaway ability.

Jeanty's receiving workload has also been much stronger in recent weeks. He's quietly evolving into a true three-down back, which is absolutely crucial for this matchup.

With the passing game potentially without both of its top targets, Steve Spagnuolo will likely be focused on shutting down Jeanty on the ground. But Jeanty's increased receiving role will help him stay involved even if the rushing game is a slog, and regardless of the game script. He's a low-end RB1.

Chiefs

Implied Team Total: 28.5

To begin the year, the Chiefs weren't really playing like the Chiefs. In Weeks 2-3, they genuinely looked to be deprioritizing their passing game on 1st down. Considering that they have one of the worst running games in the league, this was a depressing development.

Granted, the Chiefs never stopped being pass-heavy. They just seemed less psyched about it. That's changed recently. Over the last two weeks, they've been pressing their advantage in the passing game.

Patrick Mahomes gives the Chiefs a huge edge, and that has been very apparent in recent weeks.

Mahomes is up to QB8 in EPA per game and QB7 in success rate. And with 9.6 EPA per game and a 52% success rate, Mahomes' 2025 efficiency is much stronger than last year, when he was at 5.5 EPA per game and a 49% success rate.

Last year, Mahome's play was in line with where CJ Stroud is this year. This year, Mahomes' play is in line with where Joe Burrow was last year. It's starting to feel like Mahomes... is back.

Mahomes might be back; Rashee Rice definitely is.

Rice has served his six-game suspension and is set to rejoin the Chiefs for this game. He should provide a significant boost to Mahomes' production on shallow and intermediate targets. Before his injury last year, Rice was profiling as an emerging superstar.

Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, "The Chiefs won't be easing Rashee Rice back into action. They will be allocating a heavy workload for him as soon as possible."

However, "as soon as possible" doesn't necessarily mean this week. And Andy Reid might have other ideas.

But, at the very least, Rice is likely to have a high target rate when on the field—that's kind of his thing. And even if Rice doesn't play on every dropback, there should be plenty of dropbacks.

Even with the Raiders being a very weak team, opponents have not had a clear lean to the run against them. You can play however you want to against Las Vegas.

The Chiefs are back to their classic pass-heavy identity. Their 10% PROE leads the NFL and is twice that of the second-place Chargers (5%).

The Raiders are also quite vulnerable through the air.

Maxx Crosby is the only genuine concern. Last week, Crosby went off for six pressures and two sacks. He currently ranks 13th in pass rush win rate.

Meanwhile, LT Josh Simmons will likely miss this game due to a personal issue. Jaylon Moore struggled in pass protection while filling in last week.

So, Crosby will likely have some big plays. But even with Crosby playing great, the Raiders' pass rush is lacking. They're very unlikely to truly disrupt the Chiefs' passing game.

And when the Raiders aren't able to get pressure quickly, they are at risk of giving up big plays through the air. CB Eric Stokes is playing well, but Kyu Blu Kelly, the Raiders' other outside cornerback, remains a major liability. Among CBs with 250+ snaps this year, he is allowing yards in primary coverage at the highest rate in the league.

Rashee Rice was gifted with a nice matchup for his 2025 debut, one where he should be able to hit the ground running, even without full route participation. It's not just that this is an easy matchup for the offense—which it is—it's that this matchup should specifically benefit Rashee Rice.

The Raiders are playing zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate this year (80%). And they are playing Cover-3 at the second-highest rate (46%). Since 2023, Rice has a 28% TPRR and 3.08 YPRR against zone. Over that span, only Puka Nacua (3.10) has a higher YPRR against zone. Rice has been even more efficient against Cover-3, with a 29% TPRR and 3.32 YPRR. Again, only Puka Nacua has been more efficient, with 3.46 YPRR against Cover-3.

Rice slots in immediately as a WR1.

Since returning to action, Xavier Worthy has been running routes at a high rate, but his target numbers have been trending in the wrong direction. His first-read target rate is especially troubling.

Worthy's profile doesn't look bad, just more like a No. 2 than a No. 1.

For example, his first-read target rate is better than Jordan Addison's... but it's in the same ballpark.

The best part of Worthy's profile is his ability to earn non-first-read targets. But with Rice back, Worthy's TPRR could drop. Still, in Rice's first game back, with his usage uncertain, Worthy is in the low-end WR2 mix. He'll probably need to hit some big plays to pay off that rank, but this is a matchup where that is very plausible.

Rice's return will likely have the biggest impact on Travis Kelce, who has been seeing shallow targets over the middle of the field, where Rice does a lot of his damage. Like with Worthy, part of the bet with Kelce is that Rice starts in a part-time role. But that doesn't seem very likely. Kelce is a low-end TE1.

Even off of a two-TD performance, Hollywood Brown looks like a weak play this week. His route participation has fallen off in recent weeks, and his first-read target rate was down to just 4% last week.

In the backfield, Isiah Pacheco is coming off his highest snap share of the year. He also dominated routes.

Kareem Hunt finally saw his role shrink a bit.

Pacheco's profile remains pretty uninspiring.

Frankly, Hunt's is slightly better.

But if one of these guys is going to play, we'd like it to be just one, not both. Pacheco looks like he may be consolidating the lead back role, or, at least, becoming more of a 1A back than a true committee back.

Pacheco now gets a Raiders run defense that isn't terrible, but will likely be on the back foot as they work to shut down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' passing game. Pacheco is a high-end RB3.

(Back to Quick Links)

Patriots at Titans, 1 PM

Patriots

Implied Team Total: 24.25

Drake Maye is coming off a very impressive performance against the Saints, turning in his third-highest marks in EPA per play and success rate.

Maye is now QB8 in success rate and... QB1 in EPA per game.

And Maye's league-best efficiency doesn't include this TD, which was wiped out by an OPI call for which a flag was never thrown. The refs just decided about 60 seconds after the play that it shouldn't count for... reasons. Unrelatedly, in-person sports betting is legal in New Orleans.

Maye drove the field anyway and hit Kayshon Boutte for a TD.

As good as Maye has been this year, it's critical to understand the type of QB that Maye is, as well as the situation that he's in.

Maye is capable of getting the ball out quickly and operating on time, but he's a lot more fun when he can play like he did last week, holding the ball and hunting for downfield plays. When Maye doesn't have time to do that... he's still prone to do it anyway, creating pressure for himself, which he then turns into sacks at a concerningly high rate.

Maye is also playing behind an offensive line that has been solid this year, but against mostly weak competition. There's downside potential when he faces a real pass rush. But that's not our problem until next week, when the Patriots host the Browns.

This week, the Patriots take on a Titans pass rush that has been unimpressive. DT Jeffery Simmons is a legit superstar. He ranks DT1 in pass rush win rate and DT1 in pass rush grade. He'll cause some issues. But the Titans don't have another DT or EDGE in the top 40 in pass rush grade.

If the Patriots can hold Simmons somewhat in check, they are set up for another very successful day through the air. The Titans are allowing explosive passes at the fifth-highest rate and have multiple weak links in the secondary.

Looking at yards allowed in primary coverage per snap, outside CB L'Jarius Sneed ranks 53rd of 89 qualifying CBs, and he's the strong link. Outside CB, Jalyn Armour-Davis ranks 71st, and nickel corner Roger McCreary ranks 72nd. Safety Amani Hooper ranks 70th among 77 qualifying safeties. Here's what this tells us—opponents are very comfortable targeting all three of the Titans' corners and the safety that leads the secondary in snaps played. And targeting these players is leading to yards. This isn't a defense with one weak link that you need to pick on. You can attack in a variety of ways and find success.

Because the Titans are a very, very bad football team, opponents are averaging just a 56% pass rate against them. But it's pretty telling that teams are still making an effort to prioritize the pass.

In the season-long numbers, the Patriots have a lean to the pass. Their 2% PROE ranks eighth highest. But as we saw last week, they are comfortable with a run-first approach when controlling a game. If they need to lean on the pass, they're more than willing to. But they aren't committed to prioritizing the pass in every game environment.

That makes Patriots receivers reliant on efficiency and ultimately, a bit fragile here. From a matchup perspective, this looks like a better setup for Maye than any particular weapon. Maye's success might be driven by his ability to spread the ball around against a secondary with multiple weak points.

However, there's still upside for Patriots receivers—they're attached to the most efficient QB in the NFL, after all.

Stefon Diggs is coming off a quiet week, but his 71% route participation was quietly his second-highest mark of the year.

Diggs remains the clear top option in New England. Considering that revenge games are his thing, perhaps he'll be fired up to help Mike Vrabel get satisfaction from the team that fired him.

Diggs has been limited in practice with a chest injury. But assuming he's good to go, he's a WR2.

Kayshon Boutte spiked for two TDs against the Saints, but his target profile was in line with where it usually is.

Boutte has some deep-league dart-throw appeal in a good matchup. But it isn't a reliable option.

Demario Douglas should have had a multiple-TD day against the Saints, but he is still in a rotational role. He's not a viable play.

Kyle Williams' per-route usage spiked last week—he's worth adding in deep leagues as a bet that his role grows in the coming weeks. Odds are you'll throw him back, but the Patriots could use another playmaker, and he appears to be in a downfield role.

For now, Diggs and Hunter Henry are the best options in the offense. Henry's route participation is weaker than ideal, but he has a solid connection with Maye and is a low-end TE1.

In the backfield, things remain split. Rhamondre Stevenson saw a season-high 72% snap share, but still handed just 42% of carries against the Saints. That was also a season high, actually, but still well below ideal for a starting RB.

TreVeyon Henderson was on the field less but still saw his usual allotment of carries and targets.

The Patriots need someone to step up in the backfield. To be fair to the backs, they aren't very good at run blocking. But their RBs are still underperforming even after accounting for that.

This is a good opportunity for them to show more life against a weak Titans run defense.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been unimpressive this year, combining a lack of burst with inconsistency and, of course, fumbles. Still, Stevenson's workload could be strong this week. He's a high-end RB3.

TreVeyon Henderson has been worse than Stevenson. Henderson has just a 31% success rate; only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey have been worse. Maybe in 10 years, Jahmyr Gibbs will look like this version of Henderson, too, and the Henderson/Gibbs comps will finally hit.

For now, Henderson has a long way to go as a runner. We'd love him to be explosive; we'll settle for him not looking like a washed-up vet.

Henderson has been good as a receiver, at least. But he's not on the field enough to make him a strong play yet. If he can improve as a runner, there is definitely upside here. But for now, he's just a PPR RB3.

Titans

Implied Team Total: 17.25

Over the last couple of weeks, I've been mildly optimistic about Cam Ward. Couninteritively, his awful efficiency had me hopeful. My thinking was—even if he is really bad, it would be hard for him to be that inefficient all year.

And ultimately, last week, Ward did ever so slightly and just barely beat market expectations. But when I was noting that Ward had potential for unrealized upside, I didn't mean this:

Even after facing the Raiders, one of the softest matchups in football, Ward ranks QB39 in success rate and QB39 in EPA per game.

It's not good enough.

The Titans clearly felt the same way, firing Brian Callahan this week and replacing him with Mike McCoy. I guess the reasoning was that if your QB is playing like Josh Rosen... why not get him the guy who called plays for Josh Rosen?

Actually, in fairness to Rosen, Ward has actually been less efficient. Ward also represents a significant downgrade from Will Levis. Going all the way back to 1999, as far back as NFLfastR data is available, Ward has been about as bad as any QB on record.

To be fair to Ward, we're still looking at a relatively small sample here. Ward has 256 plays in his career sample, which is fewer than we saw last year from Spencer Rattler, for example. And Rattler has been far better than he was as a rookie with a new head coach in Year 2. Hopefully, this isn't who Ward will always be. Behind a better offensive line and with better coaching, maybe he can be saved. But... we're not going to get that this week. Feel free to keep the light on for Ward (or not). Either way, he's not someone I want to bet on this week.

Ward will be facing a Patriots secondary that doesn't look imposing by the numbers, but that is much stronger since getting Christian Gonzalez back a few weeks ago. They're more of a middling pass defense than a bad one.

The good news for the Titans is that the Patriots will likely be without Harold Landry, who ranks 17th in pass rush win rate and has been a difference maker at EDGE. So, while the secondary is better than it looks on paper, the pass rush is worse.

The Patriots are also quite stout against the run. They're probably more of a ton-10 unit than a top-5 one. But this is still a tough team to run on, threatening to make the Titans one-dimensional. Landry has been much less impactful in the run game than as a pass rusher, so his absence shouldn't have much of an impact on this part of the matchup.

It's been a while since we've seen a Mike McCoy-led offense. He literally hasn't called plays since his ill-fated one-year stint with the Rosen Cardinals.

But, for what it's worth, the last time McCoy was in charge of an offense, it was quite run-heavy.

Although in his stint with the Chargers, they were balanced.

To be clear, though, QBs coach Bo Hardegree is expected to remain the play caller. He took over from Brian Callahan after Week 3. Nick Holz also remains in place as offensive coordinator. McCoy was likely chosen for interim head coach because he's done the job before. It's unclear how much impact he'll actually have on the offensive philosophy, or precisely what that impact might be, even if he plans to make sweeping changes. We're in the dark here.

Certainly, there is plenty of room for improvement. The Titans offense uses both motion and play-action sparingly and operates almost entirely out of shotgun—despite being the league's worst shotgun passing offense.

But with less than a week to make changes on offense, the big question is whether the Titans are still willing to pass at an aggressive rate without Callahan around.

Run/pass splits are easy enough to shift quickly, which is a concern because volume is the only thing providing even a shred of value in the offense. The Titans have an expected pass rate of 71%, the highest in the league. And they've been willing to play to that extremely negative script, with a 69% pass rate.

The Titans have had consistently high expected pass rates—even in their Week 5 win—and have been passing nearly in line with expectations, with a -2% PROE.

Long term, it makes a ton of sense for the Titans to move on from Brian Callahan. It's just hard to see it paying short-term dividends, especially from a fantasy perspective.

At this point, the best thing I can say for this offense is that it has been so unbelievably inefficient that, by sheer variance, things should probably swing in its favor at some point. But I'm not holding my breath.

It's especially hard to get excited about this receiving game, with Calvin Ridley likely to be out of the lineup. Calvin Ridley injured his hamstring last week and has yet to practice this week. He will likely miss this game.

Against the Raiders, Elic Ayomanor turned in his highest route participation of the season, but struggled to earn targets.

After flashing a bit in the early weeks, Ayomanor has settled into an uimpressive role with weak efficiency. Even with Ridley out, Ayomanor is just a WR4.

It's somehow possible that Van Jefferson is the No. 1 WR in Tennessee right now, which tells you just about everything you need to know.

Chig Okonkowo remains in a part-time role. He's a low-end TE2.

In the backfield, things are getting murkier.

Tony Pollard dominated carries against the Raiders, but saw just a 43% snap share.

Tyjae Spears led the backfield with a 59% snap share, operating as a receiving back. Spears has just nine carries on the season. But with the Titans as 7-point home underdogs, Spears could see quite a bit of playing time again this week. He's an RB4.

Negative game script suddenly looks like a major concern for Pollard, whose efficiency has been poor all year, and whose grip on volume is loosening. He's a TD-dependent RB3.

(Back to Quick Links)

Eagles at Vikings, 1 PM

Eagles

Implied Team Total: 22.75

I've given Kevin Patullo a lot of grief in previous editions of the Walkthrough, so I'll give him a little credit—he's shown a willingness to adapt over the last two games. Granted, the Eagles are 0-2 in the process, but at least they went down swinging.

Shockingly, the Eagles have the highest single-game pass rate this year, turning in an 84% mark against the Broncos.

The issue is that Jalen Hurts did not play well against the Broncos or the Giants. Come to think of it, Hurts hasn't been very good all season.

Hurts is down to just QB21 in EPA per game and QB25 in success rate. He hasn't truly been bad, just disappointing.

Hurts needs a slump-busting matchup. What he gets instead is the Vikings' elite pass defense. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL and are the most efficient blitzing team. Hurts is going to need to get the ball out quickly this week.

But that's not really how Hurts plays... only Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and Lamar Jackson have a slower time to throw than Hurts.

Traditionally, Dallas Goedert has been a weapon in the screen game. He's been used less heavily there this year, but we could see that usage ramp back up to help Hurts operate more quickly. Either way, Goedert looks like a strong TE play. He's running routes at a high-end rate and earning targets. Goedert is a TE1.

AJ Brown is coming off his second-most efficient game of the year, with a 6/80/0 receiving line. Brown has had strong target numbers in most of his games; he just hasn't been able to connect with Hurts.

DeVonta Smith's production is more in line with this target opportunity. He's seen middling opportunity and is turning in middling production. Brown is a bet-on-talent WR2. Smith is a WR3.

Even with the Eagles pivoting to the pass against the Broncos and Giants, we still know that this is a team that would love to get the run game going. After all, they just won a Super Bowl with an unstoppable run game, and their QB isn't exactly lighting things up.

The Eagles now get a Vikings defense that is awesome against the pass, but pretty weak against the run.

As you would expect, this dynamic has turned the Vikings into a pretty big run funnel. I think we can be confident that the Vikings' defense is truly altering opposing game plans.

Once the NFL got a look at Brian Flores' 2025 defensive project, the reaction has been—no thanks, we're gonna run it.

Saquon Barkley hasn't been nearly as explosive as expected this year, but his success rate has actually been pretty strong.

Barkley's role has also been very steady.

This is a matchup where we can expect the Eagles to pivot back to a Barkley-centric approach, and a matchup where Barkley has upside for elite efficiency. I know he's not producing like last year... but think how excited we would have been for this setup in 2024. Barkley is a high-end RB1.