Week 9 Walkthrough: Sun God Shines in Miami
Welcome to the Week 9 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the ninth glorious football Sunday of 2026.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Lions at Dolphins, 1 PM
- Jets at Chiefs, 1 PM
- Cowboys at Colts, 1 PM
- Browns at Saints, 1 PM
- Giants at Eagles, 1 PM
- Rams at Commanders, 1 PM
- Broncos at Panthers, 1 PM
- Texans at Chargers, 4:05 PM
- Packers at Patriots, 4:25 PM
- Raiders at 49ers, 4:25 PM
- Cardinals at Seahawks, 4:25 PM
Lions at Dolphins, 1 PM
Lions
Implied Team Total: 28.75
Jared Goff is coming off his least efficient game of the season. But given that it was against the Vikings, we need to cut him some slack.
Goff posted the second-best EPA per play against Minnesota this year, as well as the second-best success rate.
The Lions also understood that Goff was going to have a tough time passing efficiently, and pivoted hard to the run.
This led to just a 44% pass rate, their lowest of the year.
The Lions now get a Dolphins defense that the Patriots attacked in a similar way last week.
Overall, though, the Dolphins defense isn't really profiling as a run funnel. Teams are running a lot against them. But that's because the Dolphins, as a team, are bad.
Given that context, opponents are very much not avoiding the Dolphins' pass defense, which is a major liability.
Drake Maye got off to a slow start last week, but eventually sliced through Miami. And the Dolphins have been genuinely lit up by five of seven opposing QBs.
Jared Goff is more than capable of being the sixth QB to go off against Miami.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off a quiet game, as he dealt with an extreme double coverage rate. But St. Brown drew targets in spite of the defensive attention.
St. Brown now gets a Dolphins team that is also likely to throw extra defenders at him. It's possible that slows St. Brown down a bit.
Then again, the Dolphins have not been very effective in actually taking away the players they double cover. We've seen five different players hit them with a 2.5+ YPRR with a double-coverage rate above 25%.
Even better, the Dolphins rank dead last on efficiency against first-read dropbacks. Double coverage looks like a tactic designed to limit a major weakness rather than something we need to worry about for St. Brown.
With a 39% first-read target share and a 24% first-read target rate, St. Brown is the absolute focal point of the Lions passing game. If Goff bounces back with high-end efficiency this week, as expected, St. Brown should lead the way.
And when you add in the fact that the Dolphins rank dead last in play action efficiency, despite seeing it at the highest rate... this matchup starts to look kind of unreal for St. Brown. On play action dropbacks, St. Brown has a 10.3 aDOT and 2.82 YPRR, compared to an 8.1 aDOT and 2.06 YPRR on regular dropbacks. St. Brown is going to get fed targets either way. But this week's play action element should help unlock big plays. St. Brown is an elite WR1.
Jameson Williams has been impressively efficient over the last two weeks, especially considering he was playing the Vikings last week. Williams has also been much more productive over his last four games than he was to start the season.
Williams' 15.9 aDOT is going to make him boom/bust. But we're also talking about a deep threat with elite speed who's popping as one of the best route runners in the league. To the extent that Miami focuses on taking away St. Brown, they'll be all the more vulnerable against Williams. He's a WR2.
Last week, Sam LaPorta was in the toughest spot of the Lions' main receivers. That's because Brian Flores' defense makes blocking a priority at the tight end position.
LaPorta benefits from a more normal setup this week. On top of that, he benefits from leading the Lions' downfield receivers with a 28% TPRR on play action. He should bounce back this week and returns to being a high-end TE1 here.
I expect Goff to be much more efficient this week... but unless the Dolphins are surprisingly frisky on offense, he'll likely need to be to make up for what will probably be a fairly low-volume day. But given the matchup, that's a pretty easy ask. And while the Lions have a lean to the run this year, they aren't super conservative. Detroit plays offense to score points.
Either way, Jahmyr Gibbs is set up incredibly well. The Dolphins are bad against both the run and the pass.
Last week, we saw the Lions pound the rock, with Gibbs handling 59% of the carries, a good-not-great share.
That rate undersells his workload, though. Gibbs handled 23 carries in a game where the Lions were using the run to neutralize the Vikings' blitz. And despite facing a great run defense, Gibbs delivered.
If the Lions pivot back to the pass here, that's even better. Gibbs leads the Lions with a 33% TPRR on play action. And play action is likely to be a key ingredient against a pass defense that's terrible against it. Gibbs is averaging 28.5 PPR points per game... and this week's matchup is about as clean of a setup as you can ask for. Seems good.
Dolphins
Implied Team Total: 21.75
Through the first five weeks of the season, Malik Willis easily looked like one of the worst QBs in the NFL.
But Willis has been much better over his last two games.
He was excellent against the Jets and then kept things on the rails against the Patriots.
For the season, Willis now looks more shaky than outright terrible. He's in the Jameis Winston zone. That doesn't make him reliable, but there's more upside than there looked to be early in the year.
Willis now gets a Lions defense that is likely to get after him. The Lions don't rate well against the pass, but they have a legitimately awesome pass rush, led by Aidan Hutchinson on the edge and Alim McNeill in the interior.
Willis has the third-longest time to throw in the NFL, while also playing behind an offensive line that is allowing pressure quickly.
Willis could generate some big plays, but I don't feel great about his ability to consistently keep the chains moving.
Normally, that would set Willis up with a very low floor because the Dolphins are going out of their way to limit play volume.
In addition to their low PROE, the Dolphins are playing with the second-slowest pace.
But the Dolphins now get a massive Lions pass funnel, with Lions opponents also playing at the fastest pace in the league. The Lions push their opponents into higher-volume game environments. And in combination with a beatable secondary, that significantly improves Willis' outlook.
After spiking against the Jets, Caleb Douglas fell back to earth a bit last week. But he was facing high-end cornerback play and a high rate of double coverage.
Douglas faces a much easier matchup here in what could easily be one of Miami's highest-volume games of the year. Douglas is a WR3.
Malik Washington continues to impress as a route runner, and his team-leading 26% target share makes him a safer bet than Douglas, albeit with a less exciting ceiling. He's also a WR3.
Since Douglas returned in Week 7, Chris Bell's route participation has remained pretty steady, but his role in the offense has completely changed.
Bell is now operating as an underneath receiver. In my view, this new role actually makes more sense for his skill set. But he's not delivering much YAC value so far, and this is a tough offense for that type of role, particularly with Washington soaking up underneath targets out of the slot. Bell is just a WR5.
Greg Dulcich has been more consistently involved over the last couple of weeks. Given that Willis has played much better over that span, his increased involvement could stick.
Per-route, Dulcich has been pretty solid. Per-target, he's been great, but that's harder to count on than getting targets in the first place. Still, this matchup bumps him up to a high-end TE2.
If investing in this passing game, we're also investing in the Lions pushing the Dolphins. Miami is not messing around about trying to hide their passing game. They are committed.
But with expected pass rates frequently at 65%+, Miami can still end up having decent pass volume. This looks likely to be one of those games.
The Dolphins' commitment to the run will keep Ollie Gordon involved either way, though. Gordon is continuing to dominate snaps, with a clear lead in carries.
Gordon is fundamentally a boom/bust runner, but he's run pretty well this year.
Going against a middling Lions defense, Gordon is a low-end RB2 as a bet on volume.
Jets at Chiefs, 1 PM
Jets
Implied Team Total: 18.75
The Chiefs' defense has been solid against the pass this year, particularly in coverage. This is not a pass defense that teams have been eager to attack.
Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, and Bo Nix were all impressively efficient against the Chiefs. It's not like they're a shutdown pass defense.
But even with their QBs playing efficiently, the Colts, Raiders, and Seahawks were all run-heavy against the Chiefs. Only Bo Nix has been backed by a pass-first game plan against this defense.
The Jets are likely to fight game script here as well. They've operated with a slight lean to the run this year.
The Jets are also set to be without Garrett Wilson, who is dealing with a concussion. Wilson was able to play nearly every snap last week, turning in one of his most efficient games of the season. He's a big loss.
Adonai Mitchell matched Wilson with a 35% TPRR last week, stepping up for an incredibly efficient game against the Raiders.
Mitchell hasn't been Wilson—one of the best route runners and target earners in the game—but he's still been a very effective target earner. And Mitchell operates much further downfield. His profile is more similar to someone like Nico Collins' than Wilson's.
And, uh, suddenly, Mitchell looks like a better version of Nico Collins.
Obviously, we have a long history of Collins operating as his team's No. 1 WR and a true downfield weapon. With Mitchell, we do not. But the comparison still helps highlight how impressive Mitchell's profile looks after his spike week against the Raiders.
Mitchell will be operating as Geno Smith's No. 1 option this week. And given how Smith has played this year, that doesn't look like a bad spot to be in.
Smith has been pretty hit or miss, though. He's handled easy matchups well, but has also struggled in tougher spots.
Still, as a bet on big plays and target volume, Mitchell is a high-end WR3.
A week ago, I would have expected to be writing up Omar Cooper as the No. 1 option with Wilson out of the lineup. But Cooper is coming off a zero-target game against the Raiders.
Cooper looks like a true ball-in-hand playmaker, but his ability to earn targets is at least somewhat uncertain. Still, he gets a clear boost without Wilson in the lineup, especially with Mitchell looking more than capable of drawing coverage and stretching the defense. Cooper is a WR3.
Mason Taylor is dealing with a back injury and is coming off unimpressive playing time against the Raiders.
Kenyon Sadiq remained the No. 2 option but was closer to an even split than he's been in weeks.
With this looking like a tight end committee again, it's hard to trust Taylor, who, to be frank, I've never trusted. There are targets available, but he's a low-end TE2.
The Chiefs are solid against the pass, but they're actually better against the run.
With the Jets as 10-point road underdogs, it's going to be difficult for them to truly lean on the run.
Even with a negative PROE, they are likely to have a healthy pass rate, which is typical for them this year.
This is a matchup where it would be helpful to have more versatility in the backfield. Outside of a target spike against the Dolphins, Braelon Allen has been predominantly used as a rushing threat.
Breece Hall profiles as more of a versatile player, which makes his likely return this week helpful for the offense.
Unfortunately, Hall has been inefficient as a runner, much worse, in fact, than Allen.
In Hall's first game back, the Jets are likely to deploy a committee, limiting Hall to RB3 value, with Allen as low-end RB3.
However, if Allen has the backfield to himself again, he's a high-end RB2 here.
