Breakout Hunting: DeVonta Smith, Turn Up the Volume
Over recent years, we've seen mid-round WR breakouts win leagues. Our job today is to find the next one.
Can DeVonta Smith join this list?
(Click here to skip the intro)
Previously Covered
Reviewing the Breakout Factors
I recently analyzed the breakouts above, identifying four factors that contributed to many of them. Not every WR checked all four boxes.
Target Priority
All 10 veterans had a first read target rate of at least 13% headed into their breakout year, indicating that they had carved out a meaningful role in their offenses.
Half of the veteran breakouts then saw a major increase in first read target rate, becoming priority targets.
These five WRs had played efficiently ahead of their breakout seasons and played for the same team and head coach in both years.
Route Volume
Nine of the ten breakouts included at least a 10% jump in routes per game.
The five biggest jumps were from two Year 2 WRs (JuJu Smith-Schuster and DK Metcalf), a Year 3 WR (Chris Godwin), and two WRs on new teams (Stefon Diggs and D.J. Moore).
These WRs typically benefited from increased route participation and more dropbacks per game.
Upgraded QB Play
Four of the breakouts played with a different starting QB than in the previous season: Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore.
Two more—Chris Godwin and Tee Higgins—benefited from healthy seasons from high-volume passers.
Four of these six WR actually declined in first read target rate. And yet, five of the six significantly improved in YPRR. The lone exception, Stefon Diggs, maintained elite efficiency with 2.49 YPRR (after 2.50 the previous year).
Cooper Kupp proved that a WR can mesh with a new QB while also being installed as a dominant No. 1 target... and that when that happens, you win all the money. But this looks like a potential alternate path to target prioritization, which favors stability. Upgraded QB play is more of a bet on uncertainty.
TD Scoring
All 11 breakout WRs scored at least six TDs, with nine hitting 8+ and five hitting 10+. And yet... none of those WRs hit 8+ TDs in the previous season.
TD scoring is volatile. If a talented WR is being discounted into the mid rounds because of a perceived lack of TD scoring "ability," we should be willing to buy that discount.
DeVonta Smith, Turn Up the Volume
DeVonta Smith is clearly behind A.J. Brown in the Eagles target pecking order, making a massive breakout harder to see. But he's also a very talented WR in a high-powered offense who runs routes at an elite rate and has consistently posted impressive per-target efficiency. I know they won't... but what if the Eagles pass more this year?
