Monday Night Walkthrough Week 9: Get Justin Jefferson the Rock
Welcome to the Week 9 Monday Night Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the ninth glorious football Monday of 2026.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Bills at Vikings, 8:15 PM
Bills
Implied Team Total: 23.75
Josh Allen has been incredibly efficient this year, leading all QBs in EPA per game.
However, he now gets the NFL's best pass defense, one which has made life difficult for every QB they've faced.
The Vikings play an extremely aggressive brand of football, blitzing at the highest rate and generating pressure consistently and quickly.
This is a challenging matchup, but at full strength, the Bills' strong offensive line would give them a much better chance of holding up than most.
Unfortunately, the Bills are not at full strength. Starting LT Dion Dawkins has logged three straight DNPs with a ribs injury. He's officially questionable, but a total lack of practice puts him on the wrong side of the tag. Starting LG Alec Anderson has also been a triple DNP with an ankle injury.
The Bills offensive line has been remarkably healthy this year. Their starting five have accounted for 92% of the total snaps from Bills offensive linemen.
At guard, Austin Corbett projects to be the next man up if Anderson is out. Corbett looks like a reasonably competent backup, and he'd be filling in for the Bills' weakest pass-blocking lineman.
Dawkins' status is more important. He's been the Bills' best pass blocker, ranking OT33 in pass blocking grade. He would be replaced by Tylan Grable, who ranks OT74 of 79.
At baseline, the Bills are likely to pivot to the run in this matchup. They are especially likely to do so if they are without Dawkins.
Pivot might be the wrong word, actually. At baseline, the Bills are operating with a lean to the run, particularly on 1st down.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are profiling as a massive run funnel.
We've seen opponents post back-to-back 44% pass rates against the Vikings, with the Lions totaling 34 carries for 218 yards in their 19-15 win.
The Vikings have a good run defense, but Jahmyr Gibbs was able to deliver efficiently against them, while also helping to neutralize the Flores blitz.
Against the Ravens, James Cook saw just 51% of the Bills' carries. But he still racked up 21 attempts. We'll likely see something similar this week, with the Bills mixing in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, but mostly to keep Cook from handling a massive workload. Cook is very likely to have a strong raw rushing total this week.
Cook has run very well this year and, despite the difficult matchup, is a low-end RB1.
When the Bills do drop back, they are unlikely to be able to use play action at their normal rate. Flores' tactics are limiting play action against this defense.
On non-play-action dropbacks, DJ Moore leads the team with a 27% TPRR, just above his 25% TPRR on all dropbacks. This matchup won't change the fact that he's the Bills' primary option in the passing game.
If anything, this matchup will emphasize Moore's importance. The Bills will be relying on him to beat double coverage, which the Vikings deploy at the highest rate in the league.
Moore has performed well against double coverage so far, but this will be one of his toughest tests of the year. He's a WR3.
The Vikings are blitzing at such an extreme rate that teams are leaving in additional players to block. This actually creates a bit of risk for James Cook. If he doesn't get there as a runner, he's unlikely to make up for it as a receiver; the Bills will likely have their RB pass blocking at a higher-than-normal rate. Although with Cook, that doesn't change a ton, given how rushing-dependent he already is.
At tight end, we'll feel this effect more.
Dalton Kincaid has had eight pass-blocking snaps on 310 overall snaps this year (3%). Dawson Knox is at 35 on 325 snaps (11%). Jackson Hawes is at 28 on 184 snaps (15%). And of 63 tight ends with 100+ blocking snaps, Kincaid is fourth worst in pass blocking grade. We've seen Kincaid at 60%+ route participation in six of seven games this year. I'm betting that he's at six of eight after Monday night.
Kincaid will still have a role, and has played well this year. But with his playing time likely to decrease in this matchup, he's a high-end TE2.
Khalil Shakir will also see fewer snaps... in the slot at least. Shakir saw increased time on the outside against Baltimore. That would be very beneficial this week, given that the Bills are less likely to be in 11-personnel in this matchup.
Keon Coleman complicates that picture, though, as the Bills played three WRs at a high rate last week, and simply moved their guys around.
Shakir has been a better target earner than Coleman, and more efficient per route. But they're fighting over limited routes this week. Shakir profiles as a WR4 with Coleman as a WR5.
