Madrid Game Walkthrough Week 9: Falcons Join the Fiesta
Welcome to the Week 9 Madrid Game Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for a glorious international football game.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Bengals vs. Falcons, 9:30 AM
Bengals
Implied Team Total: 28
The Bengals just took on a Titans team that has been a run funnel. But as I outlined last week, the Titans are actually worse against the pass than the run. Opponents were running the ball because they didn't have to pass. The Bengals are built differently. Their offense is designed to feature the passing game.
The Bengals didn't slow down against Tennessee, setting season highs in PROE both overall and on 1st-and-10.
With the Titans pushing back and making it a competitive game, the Bengals ended up posting their second-highest pass rate of the season.
The Bengals now get a Falcons defense that looks pretty impressive on paper.
Heading into last week, though, the Falcons hadn't truly shut down a QB in weeks. Then... they played the Bucs.
With Baker Mayfield totaling 19 dropbacks over his last two games, it's fair to say that the Bucs are shutting themselves down right now. The Falcons defense isn't bad. They've limited Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, and Brock Purdy to middling efficiency. But I'm skeptical this is a pass defense that the Bengals will actually look to avoid.
After last week, the Falcons should look like a huge run funnel. When a team posts a 9% pass rate against a defense, that tends to skew things... as does a -42% PROE.
But even after last week, the Falcons only look like a minor run funnel. And from my view, the Bucs are doing their own thing right now. I'm a lot more interested in how high-functioning offenses (at the time) like the Panthers, Packers, Bears, and 49ers attacked here, and we got either a 4%+ PROE or a 65%+ pass rate from all four.
The Bengals aren't just passing for the thrill of it. They have a major advantage when they drop back. Joe Burrow now leads the NFL with a 55% success rate and ranks QB4 with 11 EPA per game.
After a slow start to the season, Burrow has been rolling. The Bengals, people are saying, are a wagon.
For much of this year, Tee Higgins has been leading the way in the Bengals' passing game. But Ja'Marr Chase returned to superstar-level production against the Titans.
Not to be outdone, Higgins posted 2.98 YPRR and 37.5 PPR points.
The Bengals clearly have the best WR duo in the league, but Chase has long been treated as clearly the better of the two. Higgins is making a strong case that he deserves to be treated as an equal.
I'm not quite there, but Higgins is a high-end WR1 here, with Chase as an elite WR1.
With Andrei Iosivas on injured reserve, Dohnte Meyers is the Bengals No. 3 WR, which I only mention for island game purposes.
Meyers has been very underwhelming this year, but he looks like a safe bet for a part-time slot WR role.
Mike Gesicki is the Bengals' more appealing slot option. Interestingly, with the Titans pushing back last week, Gesicki saw his route participation spike. With this game having a 52.5-point total, it's possible we see the Bengals in pure dropback mode again, which would be a boost for Gesicki.
That's more of an upside scenario, though, than something I expect to happen. More likely, Gesicki will be back in a part-time role. Still, when he's out there, he's out there to catch passes. Gesicki is a TE2.
On the ground, the Falcons defense looks fairly middling.
Unfortunately, Chase Brown isn't a great bet to punish this run defense. He's been a very inefficient rusher.
Brown hasn't been all that efficient as a receiver, but his role there is very valuable. And after a brief dip in usage before the Bengals' Week 6 bye, Browns does look to have control of this backfield again.
Samaje Perine is still seeing the field, but mostly for empty snaps. Brown is a low-end RB1.
