Week 8 Walkthrough: Chase-ing Greatness
Welcome to the Week 8 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the eighth glorious football Sunday of 2026.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Titans at Bengals, 1 PM
- Ravens at Bills, 1 PM
- Cardinals at Cowboys, 1 PM
- Vikings at Lions, 1 PM
- Raiders at Jets, 1 PM
- Browns at Steelers, 1 PM
- Falcons at Buccaneers, 1 PM
- Colts at Jaguars, 1 PM
- Chargers at Rams, 4:05 PM
- Chiefs at Broncos, 4:25 PM
- Patriots at Dolphins, 4:25 PM
Titans at Bengals, 1 PM
Titans
Implied Team Total: 17.5
Cam Ward is coming off his most efficient game of the season against the Browns. His 5.3 EPA was more good than great, though. And from a success rate standpoint, it was actually a concerning performance.
Ward has consistently struggled in success rate, failing to hit the 50th+ percentile a single time this year.
As a rookie, he hit the 50th+ percentile in success rate just twice. And he's yet to hit the 60th+ percentile in his NFL career
Like he was as a rookie, with a 39% success rate (QB38), Ward is one of the least consistent QBs in football this year.
It's no surprise, then, that the Titans are trying to limit Ward's dropback volume. Brian Daboll has been hiding his passing game.
Last week, even with Ward turning in his most efficient game of the year, the Titans were extremely conservative.
Granted, the Titans were extremely competitive. They lost on a last-second field goal to the Browns. They were run-heavy, but in a back-and-forth script. And they were leaning on a backfield that was powered by Tony Pollard's best performance of the year.
When the Titans have been in pure passing script, they've actually been pretty willing to chuck it. That wasn't true against the Giants, but that was in bad weather. Otherwise, the Titans have been willing to lean on the pass when truly playing from behind.
That's good news for this matchup. The Titans are 11.5-point road underdogs to a team with a 29-point implied team total. They'll likely be deep in negative game script this week. As long as they don't go all out to avoid the pass, we should get pass volume.
And for Ward, pass volume is extremely helpful. Fundamentally, he's a boom/bust QB. And the busts outweigh the booms.
Meanwhile, the Bengals defense has been better than expected against the pass. They are getting pressure without blitzing and creating big plays.
The Bengals pass defense looks a bit like a paper tiger, though. They have faced a weak QB schedule. They've played only two games against top-20 QBs in EPA per game. And while CJ Stroud (the first of those QBs) struggled against them, Trevor Lawrence (the other) was quite efficient.
On defense, the Bengals have also struggled with success rate, which points to their underlying success being big-play driven.
From a team-level matchup perspective, the Bengals are well positioned for another efficient defensive performance. However, from a fantasy lens, the Titans passing game looks likely to generate some moments this week. Some of those moments will be ugly... but some could be pretty fun.
As has been the case for weeks, the outlook for the Titans passing game really boils down to whether Carnell Tate is set up for success. Tate is coming off a solid game against the Browns, where he largely faced single coverage.
Tate also faced a high rate of man coverage last week. As I noted heading into that matchup, Tate had posted a high target rate against man. That trend continued last week, with a 46% TPRR on 11 routes against man. Tate is now up to a 31% TPRR against man with 2.40 YPRR. He gets a Bengals defense that plays man coverage at the fourth-highest rate and has not been very aggressive about using double coverage.
Tate looks like a clear hit for the Titans, the type of player who will burn defenses if not treated as a priority. Ward is undoubtedly holding him back. But this matchup also has the potential to boost dropback volume.
Unfortunately, Tate has been dealing with a shoulder injury this week, and has yet to practice. Assuming he gets in at least a limited session on Friday and suits up, he profiles as a WR2 this week.
Wan'Dale Robinson continues to be a safe bet for routes, despite struggling to produce over the last two weeks.
Robinson's underlying target numbers are pretty encouraging, as well. And as a low-aDOT slot WR, he's a reasonable way to bet on passing volume. Robinson is a low-end WR3, with high-end WR3 upside if Tate sits.
Gunnar Helm saw increased playing time last week, but didn't do much with it.
Helm has been extremely inefficient this year. Even with the potential for increased pass volume, he's just a TE3.
For what it's worth, Elic Ayomanor was in a full-time role with Calvin Ridley (hip) out last week.
He'll likely be back in a split role if Ridley and Tate play. Even if Ridley is out, he's just a dart throw. If Tate is out, he'd move into WR5 territory.
Tyjae Spears' availability is more impactful than Ridley's. With the backfield to himself last week, Tony Pollard posted 36.5 PPR points, finally delivering on the rushing efficiency that I've been noting for the last few weeks. Even after last week, Pollard looks like a positive regression candidate. But that really comes down to TD equity. As last week showed, when Pollard gets in the end zone, he has a ceiling. But when he doesn't, his rushing-centric profile can be pretty underwhelming.
Pollard now gets a Bengals run defense that has been pretty strong.
Pollard is also likely to be operating in negative game script, which is not a good fit for his profile. Even with Spears out last week, he posted just 36% route participation. Spears could also return this week, further squeezing Pollard into a TD-or-bust rushing role. If that happens, even after his massive spike week, Pollard looks like a high-end RB3. But with the backfield to himself, he sets up as an RB2.
Bengals
Implied Team Total: 29
The Tennessee Titans are profiling as the second biggest run funnel in the NFL, behind only the Vikings.
But under the hood, those are two very different defensive dynamics.
The Vikings are pushing opponents to the run but making life hell for opposing QBs. The Titans aren't doing that at all.
The Titans aren't even like the Eagles, who are getting run on because they haven't been able to stop it. The Titans aren't great against the run, but they aren't terrible against it either.
And yet, Titans opponents are averaging just a 54% pass rate, the lowest in the NFL, with a -6% PROE and a 4% shift to the run (both the second lowest).
Titans opponents also have the second-slowest pace.
The Titans' defense isn't pushing opponents to the run; their offense is. Opponents are game planning with the assumption that the Tennessee offense won't score enough points to push them.
But consider who these teams have been.
Keep in mind that only nine NFL teams have a positive pass rate over expected this year. But still, the Titans have yet to play any of them.
Most teams are happy to establish the run even against a defense that's worse against the pass than the run... provided they can expect to control the game.
However, the Bengals are not most teams. They lead the NFL with a 7% PROE and an 11% PROE on 1st down. And with a 66% pass rate, they rank behind only the Packers (68%), Steelers (68%), and Cowboys (67%). More than any other team in the NFL, the Bengals are going out of their way to feature their passing game.
With Joe Burrow at the helm, that approach makes a ton of sense.
Joe Burrow is coming off his best game of the season, with a truly elite 21 EPA against a very respectable Ravens defense.
Since Week 3, Joe Burrow has been absurdly efficient, rivaling Lamar Jackson for the best efficiency in the NFL.
And even with his slow start factored in, Burrow is profiling as one of the most efficient QBs in the league.
Burrow now faces a Titans pass defense that has functionally been hidden by its weak offense. Opponents don't need to pass on the Titans. But if they were attacking the matchup with high volume, the Titans would clearly not be up to the task. They don't generate pressure and aren't even blitzing.
The Titans have also struggled in coverage, while opting not to take the opponent's top option away.
This pass defense is straight up docile.
If anything, these numbers could understate how vulnerable the Titans' pass defense is. Only Jameis Winston (in bad weather) and Daniel Jones (in a sunny home game) have been inefficient against the Titans.
The Titans' 2026 numbers also reflect a defense that had Jeffrey Simmons in the lineup. On Thursday, the Titans traded Simmons to the Bears for two 1st-round picks. This is a massive deal for both teams.
For the Titans, their already anemic pass rush is about to hit the floor. Simmons ranks DT1 in pass rush win rate, after finishing DT2 in 2025. Simmons also ranks DT5 in pass rush grade after leading the league last year. Simmons is a true superstar, an established difference maker still in peak form.
Crucially, Simmons has had more of an impact in the pass game than the run game. He's good at both, to be clear. But Simmons is outside the top 10 in run-stop win rate and ranks DT16 in run defense grade. If you were specifically looking to take advantage of Simmons' absence, you would call dropbacks with more confidence.
Meanwhile, the Bengals high PROE isn't driven by them sometimes leaning into specific pass-friendly matchups. They've posted a positive PROE in every game and are coming off their most aggressive outing of their season. Out of their Week 6 bye, the Bengals were as committed to the pass as ever.
In coverage, the Titans have multiple liabilities. Marcus Harris has struggled badly in the slot. Cor'Dale Flott has been unimpressive on the outside. Alontae Taylor was one of the worst outside cover corners in the league before getting benched. Joshua Williams has been quite a bit better, but is entering just this third game with the Titans—he's a weak bright spot.
Moreover, the Titans aren't just double covering at a low rate; they don't seem very strategic in their use of it, and they've moved away from double coverage in recent weeks.
After failing to take away Garrett Wilson and DeVonta Smith to open the season, they haven't been aggressive about taking away the opponent's top option. They were seemingly more concerned with Rashod Bateman than Zay Flowers in Week 4, and got cooked by KCC Concepcion after the Ravens had sold out to take him away in Week 6.
This is excellent news for Ja'Marr Chase... who the Ravens just sold out to stop in Week 7.
Tee Higgins also faced a ton of double coverage last week, but was extremely efficient anyway.
Higgins has had the stronger start to the season, posting a truly elite 2.83 YPRR. We have a long history with this duo, though. Chase is the better bet moving forward, especially if the Titans aren't going to treat him like the all-world WR that he is. Chase is an elite WR1.
This is also an outstanding setup for Higgins. He's been one of the best WRs in the game this year and is a WR1 here.
Against the Ravens, the Bengals lost Erick All to a knee injury. However, Mike Gesicki's playing time was unaffected.
Gesicki is essentially a part-time slot receiver, and with Drew Sample filling in for All, that's unlikely to change. Gesicki is a high-end TE3.
In the backfield, Chase Brown is coming off an encouraging post-bye-week role. He posted a 15% target share against the Ravens, with a clear lead in carries.
Samaje Perine was much less involved than in Week 5.
Brown has been an inefficient runner this year, which is how Perine got back in the conversation. But Brown gets a good matchup this week, and even if the Bengals lean on the pass, he should be attached to a high-scoring attack. Brown is an RB1.
Ravens at Bills, 1 PM
Ravens
Implied Team Total: 25.75
Last week, I took a leap of faith that Lamar Jackson would play, making Zay Flowers the Week 7 cover boy.
Jackson's absence was a disappointment. Zay Flowers' performance was not.
Even with Tyler Huntley at QB, the Ravens have been able to move the ball on offense. It's a good sign for where things will stand once Jackson is finally ready to play.
And, from the outside looking in, it does appear that Jackson will return to the lineup after practicing in full this week.
Even with Huntley playing well, Jackson represents a major boost to the offense. After missing three games, he's probably out of the MVP conversation. But he's producing at that level.
The Ravens have been a run-heavy team this year, though.
Counterintuitively, the Ravens have been more run-heavy in Jackson's starts than in Huntley's.
Most notably, this includes a very conservative game plan against the Cowboys in Week 3, one of the most vulnerable pass defenses in the NFL.
The Ravens posted just a 43% pass rate in that game, which they won 34-31.
The Bills started off the season looking like a run funnel, but the Patriots and Rams chose instead to attack through the air.
And because the Bills are such a potent offense, it's hard to post a low pass rate against them.
The Bills' run defense is not good, though. It's possible the Bills get Ed Oliver back this week, but Oliver's name recognition overstates his impact this year. He ranks just DT155 in run defense grade.
Baltimore's typical plan is to run the ball and then deploy play action at a high rate. This has been a very efficient strategy. And that's the exact strategy that teams are using with great effect against the Bills.
The Bills are far worse against the pass than the run, profiling as one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. They have a weak pass rush and are extremely vulnerable in coverage.
The Bills look especially susceptible in this matchup. All of their CBs look like potential liabilities, but slot CB Dee Alford looks like the worst of the bunch. He'll be tasked with taking on Zay Flowers, who operates predominantly from the slot.
Flowers is profiling as a true superstar in the Declan Doyle offense. He's getting open at will and leads the NFL in YPRR, despite playing with a backup for more than half of his routes.
The Ravens are likely to limit overall dropback volume here, as they lean on the run and set up an efficient play-action-driven passing attack. But that efficiency will be powered by Flowers. He's set up for another high-end performance this week. Flowers is a high-end WR1.
Derrick Henry is the secondary weapon in the offense, despite continuing to have a non-existent receiving role.
Henry has been unimpressive as a runner this year, but the Ravens are committed to getting him the ball. And with Jackson back, the value of his carries should increase. Henry looks as TD-dependent as he's ever been. But in a game with a 54.5-point total, his TD equity is pretty appealing here.
If this game gets out of hand, it's possible that Henry's playing time is limited, though. Justice Hill has been playing quite a bit recently. The less dominant the Ravens are, the more of Hill we're likely to see. And with the Ravens as 3-point road underdogs here, they could end up trailing and shifting away from a run-first game plan. That adds some fragility to Henry's outlook. Still, he's an RB1.
In the passing game, the secondary weapon is getting harder to distinguish. For much of the year, Mark Andrews was handling that role. Andrews has been getting open and drawing targets, but he's been extremely inefficient on those looks. And over the last two weeks, we've seen Andrews' targets dry up.
This has coincided with Ja'Kobi Lane's return to the lineup. Lane has been a solid target earner, and looks to be challenging Andrews' standing in the target pecking order.
Rashod Bateman also remains in the mix, further complicating the picture.
With Lane besting Bateman in route participation last week, and generating stronger per-route target numbers, the rookie looks like the better WR bet. Lane is a WR4.
Lane versus Andrews is trickier to figure out. Andrews leads the tight end position in open score; he really is earning his target volume. He also has a long-established connection with Lamar Jackson. At the same time, we're talking about a 31-year-old TE who's at 1.22 YPRR after posting just 1.23 last year. He's clearly lost (at least) a step.
But while the floor is low, Andrews still has a ceiling in this matchup. As a bet that the Bills push the Ravens into a higher-volume script, Andrews is a TE1.
