Munich Game Walkthrough Week 10: Drake in Deutschland
Welcome to the Week 10 Munich Game Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for a glorious international football game.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Patriots vs. Lions, 9:30 AM
Patriots
Implied Team Total: 23.5
In Drake Maye's multi-year quest to shed the schedule-merchant label... last week did not help him beat the allegations.
Maye posted -5.6 EPA against the Packers, failing to keep pace with Jordan Love, who was busy dicing up Christian Gonzalez and the Patriots' secondary.
Maye now gets a much weaker secondary than he faced last week. The Lions have not been impressive in coverage and will be without outside CB DJ Reed for this game.
The Lions' pass rush is genuinely good, though. Aidan Hutchinson ranks EDGE19 in pass rush win rate and EDGE1 in pass rush grade. He is going to put the Patriots' offensive line to the test. However, RT Morgan Moses ranks OT20 in pass block win rate and OT21 in pass block grade. LT Will Campbell ranks OT17 in pass block grade. The Patriots shouldn't be bowled over by Hutchinson.
The interior pass rush could end up being a bigger problem. Alim McNeil ranks DT1 in pass rush win rate and DT12 in pass rush grade. Tyleik Williams ranks DT19 in pass rush grade.
On the Patriots side of the interior, RG Matt Pryor has been a star. Among interior linemen, he ranks fourth in pass block grade and 10th in pass block win rate. C Jared Wilson ranks just 71st in pass block grade, but somehow still leads all interior linemen in pass block win rate. The metrics are conflicting, but Wilson is clearly doing something right.
Filling out the line, LG Alijah Vera-Tucker ranks 31st in pass block grade and 14th in pass block win rate... but there's a problem. Vera-Tucker was lost for the season a few weeks ago. Vera-Tucker was replaced by Ben Brown, who suffered a knee injury and is out for this game. Brown was replaced by Walter Rouse, who suffered a concussion and is questionable. Rouse has also been a disaster in pass protection this year.
The Patriots straight up do not know who they are going to play at left guard this week. It's possible they elevate Greg Van Roten from injured reserve. He was LP/LP/FP in practice this week with a hamstring injury. But Van Roten is a 36-year-old who the Patriots signed in August to a one-year deal and who has been a turnstile in pass protection for them so far.
There's no good options here. The fact is that Maye will face some interior pressure as the Lions attack a clear weak point at left guard.
The good news is that Maye should have plenty of opportunities to make up for some inevitable mistakes.
The Lions are a massive pass funnel. Actually, that's not right. The Lions are a scoring funnel. Opposing offenses are playing extremely aggressively. That means passing the ball at the highest rate in the league and playing with the fastest pace.
The Dolphins are the only Lions opponent to post a negative PROE against them, and only the Bills, as part of a 41-31 romp, have posted a below-average pass rate.
At baseline, the Patriots are a balanced team.
However, we've seen them pivot to the pass, particularly in shootouts. The Patriots have been in three games where both teams scored 20+ points: their 29-26 win in Buffalo, their 30-24 loss in Chicago, and their 45-27 loss to the Packers. They posted at least a 3% PROE in all three games.
Even if you want to characterize Drake Maye as a schedule merchant... the schedule is offering quite a bit of upside this week. And given that Maye is averaging 8.2 EPA per game and a 51% success rate, he's clearly capable of putting up efficiency in the right environments.
Maye could end up turning in some negative plays here for sure—I expect him to. But he's playing a high-leverage style of football that should lead to big plays as well. And, for that style, he plays a remarkably consistent brand of football.
Maye has better odds of connecting downfield if AJ Brown is able to suit up. Brown logged three limited practices this week, and appears to have a real chance of playing despite the Patriots being on bye next week. If Brown goes, he's very likely to be a key part of the playcalling—the Patriots are unlikely to have him out there just to ignore him.
Against a weak secondary, Brown is a high-end WR2 if he plays.
Regardless of whether Brown suits up, we can expect Demario Douglas to be in the slot. He's been a key part of the Patriots offense over the last four weeks, and it's hard to see the Patriots getting away from 11-personnel completely in this matchup.
With an 11.8 aDOT, Douglas is also a part of the Patriots' downfield passing attack. He's not just a bet on underneath volume. Douglas is a low-end WR3.
With Brown out last week, Kyle Williams was in a near full-time role on the outside.
Mack Hollins returned to the lineup and posted very similar playing time.
Efton Chism was in a part-time role.
If Brown returns, I would expect Chism to play a very small role in the offense, as the odd man out on the outside. Chism has played well this year, but as an underneath target earner, he needs volume to deliver fantasy value. And even without Brown, last week's usage makes that path to volume unclear. If Brown is ruled out, Chism is a WR5.
I expect Kyle Williams to retain a role even if Brown is in the lineup, but he'll be a pure field stretcher. And even if Brown misses, Williams is just a WR5 as a bet on a splash play connection.
As I was writing this game up, I realized I was thinking about Mack Hollins incorrectly. I was thinking of him as a version of Chism or even Hunter Henry, that he was fundamentally a big possession receiver. I think Hollins can be that if the Patriots want him to be. But this year, he's really been more like Romeo Doubs. And with Doubs out again, Hollins will likely fill the role of the physical field stretcher.
With Brown in the lineup, Hollins is unlikely to be a priority, making him a WR4. But the Patriots may need to lean on Hollins if Brown is absent, pushing him into low-end WR3 territory.
Hunter Henry was dealing with a toe injury last week, which explains his reduced playing time.
Henry was limited in practice this week, but wasn't listed on the final injury report. He should see something close to his normal role. Henry has been a reliable target for Maye and shapes up as a low-end TE1 here.
Eli Raridon was splitting time with Henry last week, which signals a potential drop in playing time this week, assuming that the Patriots are playing aggressively, with more 11-personnel.
Raridon has been impressive this year. But he's hard to trust in this type of game environment. He's a high-end TE3.
On the ground, the Lions are middling against the run. Unfortunately, the Patriots are nowhere near full strength there.
TreVeyon Henderson is set to miss another game, and Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable with a knee injury. Stevenson was initially expected to miss this week, but he was a DNP/LP/LP in practice and does appear to have a chance to play.
If he can suit up, he's a much better fit for the matchup than Corey Kiner. Stevenson has been a solid producer as both a runner and receiver. If Stevenson plays, it's hard to expect true workhorse usage, given his knee injury. But he'd still profile as a low-end RB1.
Corey Kiner technically has a strong YPRR of 1.78. But given that he has just a 1% target share, that doesn't mean much. Frankly, the 1% target share is the real takeaway there.
Kiner has seen snaps in every game this year, but has been targeted just twice.
With Stevenson out, Lan Larison is likely to mix in for receiving snaps, limiting Kiner to mostly rushing value. Considering that we should see plenty of receiving snaps, Kiner is just a high-end RB3.
At the same time, it's hard to get excited about Larison, who is likely to operate as a satellite back. With Stevenson out, Larison is still just an RB5.
