Sunday Night Walkthrough Week 10: Tee Higgins on High Volume
Steelers at Bengals, 8:20 PM
Steelers
Implied Team Total: 23
Over the first six weeks of the season, the Steelers were profiling as a truly pass-heavy team. But, by and large, the Steelers weren't passing from a position of strength. It was more that they were leaning into pass-heavy script.
Over the last two games, the Steelers have switched things up. They have been playing in more positive game script, and as part of that, have been leaning on the run.
In their last game, the Steelers were especially run-heavy, posting their first negative PROE on 1st-and-10 with an extreme -20% mark.
They also posted a very low 43% pass rate.
Considering that Aaron Rodgers has not been efficient this year, it's pretty hard to wave away this recent shift. The Steelers are pretty clearly signaling that going forward, they aren't going to pass no matter what.
However, the Steelers now get a Bengals team that is a pass funnel. Bengals opponents are shifting to the pass against them, to attack an unimpressive pass defense, in part, but also to keep up with Joe Burrow.
The Bengals' season-long numbers likely understate their pass funnel effect. In a 31-24 loss, the Dolphins posted a -20% PROE and a 52% pass rate. More self-assured opponents haven't played things that way. That includes the Steelers, who in Week 3 posted a 6% PROE, an 11% PROE on 1st down, and a 66% pass rate against Cincinnati.
The Steelers' recent history suggests that they probably need to be pushed to the air. But the Bengals are one of the clearest pass funnels in the league. They are quite capable of pushing the Steelers back to their previous tendencies.
With sufficient volume, we don't need a ton of efficiency out of Aaron Rodgers. He's been able to support solid production without being especially efficient.
But this also looks like a matchup that should boost Rodgers' efficiency. He posted a solid 70th percentile mark in EPA per play against this defense, a defense that allowed a 79th percentile mark from Cam Ward two weeks ago.
Rodgers' Week 3 performance against the Bengals is arguably the high point of the Steelers season so far. They defeated the Bengals 30-27 with Rodgers turning in his best efficiency of the season.
On paper, this is exactly the type of matchup that sets Rodgers up for success. The Bengals barely blitz and aren't generating a lot of pressure. The Bengals are also covering very poorly.
Rodgers will still get the ball out quickly; that's what he does. But when he holds the ball for an extra beat, he shouldn't be immediately punished. And when Rodgers gets the ball out, it will usually be to an open receiver.
Against the Browns, the Steelers shifted to a run-heavy approach; it was very much a shift to power football. It included a bigger dose of Darnell Washington, but they also deployed six offensive linemen (not counting Washington).
This led to a smaller role for Pat Freiermuth, who saw his lowest route participation of the season.
If the Steelers shift back toward the pass here, as expected, Freiermuth should be back in a larger role. That volume is important, as he has not been very efficient. He's a TE2. Washington's more limited role makes him a high-end TE3.
DK Metcalf was on the field for literally every dropback against the Browns, but he still turned in his worst game of the season.
Germie Bernard was also unproductive despite a strong role in the offense.
With Michael Pittman at least another week away from returning, Metcalf and Bernard remain the clear top two WRs. Bernard has actually been more efficient than Metcalf, and his screen-heavy role makes him a reasonably safe bet for at least some production here. However, Metcalf is the higher upside play as the primary downfield target in a matchup that should boost volume and efficiency. Metcalf is a low-end WR2 with Bernard as a high-end WR3.
On the ground, the Steelers shifted back toward Jaylen Warren as the primary back against the Browns.
Warren had a small lead as a runner, but a much clearer lead as a receiver. Dowdle's shockingly high 22% target share in Week 7 is a reminder that the Steelers are capable of odd deployment decisions. But Warren should be the lead back in the passing game, given how much better he's been there.
Both backs should also be reasonably efficient on the ground, against a middling Bengals run defense.
Dowdle has been reasonably solid this year. And in a good matchup for the offense, he's an RB4.
Warren has been a superstar. Based on the split since Dowdle has returned, it's unlikely that the Steelers truly treat him that way. But Warren is a safe bet for a strong workload and has upside for a very efficient day. He's a high-end RB2.
