Week 2 Walkthrough: Bucky Irving Fires the Cannons
Welcome to the Week 2 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the second glorious football Sunday of 2026.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Browns at Buccaneers, 1 PM
- Vikings at Bears, 1 PM
- Bengals at Texans, 1 PM
- Saints at Ravens, 1 PM
- Steelers at Patriots, 1 PM
- Panthers at Falcons, 1 PM
- Eagles at Titans, 1 PM
- Packers at Jets, 1 PM
- Jaguars at Broncos, 4:05 PM
- Raiders at Chargers, 4:05 PM
- Commanders at Cowboys, 4:25 PM
- Seahawks at Cardinals, 4:25 PM
- Dolphins at 49ers, 4:25 PM
Browns at Buccaneers, 1 PM
Browns
Implied Team Total: 16.5
Deshaun Watson started off quite poorly in Todd Monken's offense, turning in -2.8 EPA.
Watson's brand of football was to move off his first read, hold the ball for an eternity, take on pressure, and then attempt a high-risk downfield throw. That could be fun if Watson was still good. But he looks truly washed.
Watson now faces a Buccaneers defense that is likely to blitz at a high rate. However, the Bucs did just generate the lowest pressure rate of the week against the Bengals, so it's possible that the blitz opens up some big play opportunities. Overall, I expect another poor outing from Watson. However, Watson did hit Denzel Boston for a long TD in Week 1. And that type of play looks possible again—but likely as a small bright spot in an underwhelming overall performance.
The Browns also look unwilling to fully embrace their fate as a garbage time offense. In an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars, they turned in just a 63% pass rate. They hit that by posting a -10% pass rate over expected. They were even more conservative on 1st-and-10, with a -22% PROE. This team is actively looking to limit passing volume.
With Watson at QB, Denzel Boston looks like the best bet for targets. His 58% air yard share and 29.0 aDOT will both drop moving forward, but nevertheless indicate that he can get Watson's attention deep, which is where Watson wants to look. Boston's route participation is actually the most bullish indicator here, though. At 97%, he posted a remarkably high rate for his first NFL game. He's a boom/bust WR5.
KC Concepcion tied Boston with a 19% target share, and led the Browns with 2.15 YPRR. But he was operating as a part-time slot WR, which is not great in a passing offense with major efficiency concerns. Jerry Jeudy is playing ahead of him on the outside for now, limiting his value. Concepcion is a dart throw for the time being.
At tight end, Harold Fannin was operating as the clear TE1, which is something. However, he posted an unimpressive 14% target share and a very low 4% first-read target rate. Given that Fannin had just a 3.3 aDOT, it's likely that Watson was passing up underneath targets to Fannin and looking for something with more upside down the field. That probably won't change this week, making Fannin just a high-end TE2. Things can definitely improve... but it might take Watson getting benched for things to truly shift.
In the backfield, Quinshon Judkins will operate as the lead back. But his control of the backfield isn't as complete as hoped. Even with Dylan Sampson leaving with an injury, Judkins lost significant receiving work to Raheim Sanders, who matched Judkins with 42% route participation and bested him 14% to 10% in target share. It's a disappointing development for a back who needs to dominate touches to truly pay off... unless this offense takes a big step forward, which is hard to see happening anytime soon.
Judkins faces a Bucs defense that was very consistent against the run last year and held up reasonably well last week. He's an RB3.
Buccaneers
Implied Team Total: 25
Baker Mayfield got off to a disappointing start against the Bengals, with -4.1 EPA. However, Mayfield's 54% success rate was a strong mark and points to upside from here.
Mayfield now gets an even easier defense than the Bengals. Entering the season, the Browns defense looked susceptible in coverage; their defensive line looked likely to be a strength, though, even without Myles Garrett. In Week 1, that was not the case. The Browns struggled badly to generate pressure.
Meanwhile, even with Mayfield having some ugly plays, the Bucs were willing to pass, posting a 70% pass rate with a 3% PROE. Their -11% PROE on 1st-and-10 is a strong indication that they would prefer to be more balanced. But still, this is a team that looks willing to play to the game script, at a minimum.
Entering Week 2, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin look like the Bucs' clear top two WRs, with Egbuka in place as the top option.
Egbuka was fairly quiet in Week 1, but his underlying numbers are pretty strong. He could rebound here nicely if Mayfield does. Egbuka is a low-end WR2.
Chris Godwin was reportedly very steady in training camp, but that didn't translate to Week 1. He ran plenty of routes but struggled to draw targets. After he posted just 1.36 YPRR last year, Week 1 underscores concerns about how much he has left in the tank. He's a WR3 here as a bet on the matchup.
With Jalen McMillan out last week, Ted Hurst operated as the clear No. 3 WR. And for a rookie seeing his first action, Hurst wasn't bad. However, with McMillan now back at practice, Hurst's route participation is likely to drop significantly. McMillan's role is also now a bit murky. He'll play, but how much? I'd prefer not to play either WR for the time being.
Cade Otton looks like the best dart-throw option outside of the top two receivers. He still has a total lock on routes, and actually saw an impressive target share in Week 1. Otton is a TE2.
In the backfield, Kenny Gainwell's first game with the Bucs was a bust.
Meanwhile, even with just eight rushing attempts, Bucky Irving looked back to his old self. His production was driven by an elite target share and characteristic efficiency as a receiver.
Gainwell will have better days. But Irving will also have higher-volume rushing days than last week—potentially starting this week.
The 2025 Browns were a run funnel by necessity, with teams avoiding their elite pass rush. But this year's Browns might just be bad against the run.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers offensive line looks to be moving people in the run game, as expected. They rank fourth in run block win rate. Irving took advantage with an elite success rate. On more volume, he could remind people why he was being drafted in the 2nd round last year. Irving is a low-end RB1.
Vikings at Bears, 1 PM
Vikings
Implied Team Total: 21.75
Kyler Murray's Vikings debut was a gut punch, with him immediately tossing an interception and then suffering a concussion.
Carson Wentz filled in admirably, though, leading the Vikings to victory while posting 10.6 EPA with a 50% success rate.
Last week had some outrageously efficient performances, which downplay how strong of a performance this was from Wentz. Here's roughly where this game would have put him on last year's EPA chart, assuming he maintained this level over a full season.
The good news is that Wentz's Week 2 matchup is considerably easier than the Packers' defense. The Bears just played Bryce Young... and came away looking like a very poor pass defense.
The Bears should be able to get some pressure, which will probably create some inconsistency on the Vikings' side. But Wentz should be able to hit big plays against a defense that currently ranks fourth-worst in explosive pass rate.
The big question for the Vikings' passing game is how necessary it will be to victory. With Wentz taking most of the snaps at QB, the Vikings posted a very conservative -8% PROE. They played a lot like the Seahawks in Week 1.
Obviously, if the Bears offense is able to carry over what it did against the Panthers to this game, the Vikings will need to get more aggressive on offense. But the Vikings defense just shut down the Packers' run game and held Jordan Love to a 25th percentile success rate and a 23rd percentile EPA per play. They're a better defense than the Panthers for damn sure.
The Bears, meanwhile, look better against the run than the pass, but still not great.
In the backfield, Aaron Jones led the way in snaps. He posted an impressive success rate in the RYOE model, but, overall, was pretty underwhelming.
Jordan Mason wasn't much better. He handled more carries and had a breakaway run, but he was less consistent and truly a zero as a receiver.
This week, the Vikings placed Jordan Mason on injured reserve with a thumb injury, elevating Jones to the clear lead RB. Rookie Demond Claiborne will likely have a role, but it's hard to believe it'll be substantial, given that he was a healthy scratch against the Packers. Jones is an RB2.
With Murray going down, it was nice to see the Vikings' passing game continue to produce. Not only that, but Justin Jefferson returned to superstar status.
As fun as that was, it would have been nice if Jordan Addison or Jauan Jennings could have added even a single catch. But both came up empty.
Obviously, things won't remain this heavily tilted in Jefferson's direction. And, in fact, his 20% first-read target rate is a good sign that this wasn't necessarily last week's plan. That's because, while 20% is a strong rate, it's far from dominant. Something else was going on here.
Wentz attempted a first-read throw on just 35% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate of the week. This is a pretty clear sign that the Vikings' on-field target distribution was not highly correlated with what was on Kevin O'Connell's playsheet. The Bears' defense should be helpful here; the Vikings should be able to execute more plays as designed against Chicago's lackluster defense.
For Jefferson, this isn't a concern. He was clearly the focal point last week and will be again. He's a high-end WR1.
For Addison, the first-read data is a reason not to get overly discouraged. He's a WR4.
For Jennings, his route participation is a concern. Combined with the move to Wentz at QB, he's best left on benches.
At tight end, TJ Hockenson soaked up non-first-read targets. He didn't see a single target as the first read, yet still posted a 17% TPRR. That shows a good connection with Wentz, even if his place in the game plan is a bit murky. The unambiguous good news is that Hockenson posted an impressive 77% route participation. He's a high-end TE2.
