Breakout Hunting: Can Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice Power a Patrick Mahomes Renaissance?
Over recent years, we've seen mid-round WR breakouts win leagues. Our job today is to find the next one.
Can Xavier Worthy and/or Rashee Rice join this list?
(Click here to skip the intro)
Previously Covered
- Zay Flowers
- Rome Odunze
- Jameson Williams
- George Pickens
- Chris Olave
- DeVonta Smith
- Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings
- Jerry Jeudy
- Jaylen Waddle
Reviewing the Breakout Factors
I recently analyzed the breakouts above, identifying four factors that contributed to many of them. Not every WR checked all four boxes.
Target Priority
All 10 veterans had a first read target rate of at least 13% headed into their breakout year, indicating that they had carved out a meaningful role in their offenses.
Half of the veteran breakouts then saw a major increase in first read target rate, becoming priority targets.
These five WRs had played efficiently ahead of their breakout seasons and played for the same team and head coach in both years.
Route Volume
Nine of the ten breakouts included at least a 10% jump in routes per game.
The five biggest jumps were from two Year 2 WRs (JuJu Smith-Schuster and DK Metcalf), a Year 3 WR (Chris Godwin), and two WRs on new teams (Stefon Diggs and D.J. Moore).
These WRs typically benefited from increased route participation and more dropbacks per game.
Upgraded QB Play
Four of the breakouts played with a different starting QB than in the previous season: Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore.
Two more—Chris Godwin and Tee Higgins—benefited from healthy seasons from high-volume passers.
Four of these six WR actually declined in first read target rate. And yet, five of the six significantly improved in YPRR. The lone exception, Stefon Diggs, maintained elite efficiency with 2.49 YPRR (after 2.50 the previous year).
Cooper Kupp proved that a WR can mesh with a new QB while also being installed as a dominant No. 1 target... and that when that happens, you win all the money. But this looks like a potential alternate path to target prioritization, which favors stability. Upgraded QB play is more of a bet on uncertainty.
TD Scoring
All 11 breakout WRs scored at least six TDs, with nine hitting 8+ and five hitting 10+. And yet... none of those WRs hit 8+ TDs in the previous season.
TD scoring is volatile. If a talented WR is being discounted into the mid rounds because of a perceived lack of TD scoring "ability," we should be willing to buy that discount.
Can Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice Power a Patrick Mahomes Renaissance?
Patrick Mahomes hasn't been bad the last two years. By any reasonable standard, he's been very good. But for Mahomes, an absolute force from 2018-22, we don't have a reasonable standard. We're comparing Mahomes... to peak Mahomes. It's his fault, not ours—don't be so outrageously good if you want us to judge you reasonably.
But if Xavier Worthy can take a step forward this year, Mahomes will finally have a WR corps that is truly dangerous again.
If Worthy takes a small step forward, he could help push the Chiefs to more pass volume, helping to power a high-volume receiving season for Rashee Rice. Rice has proven to be a high-end target earner... he just earns very shallow targets and needs the offense to pass at a high rate.
If Worthy takes a big step forward, then we're talking about someone who could push the Chiefs toward their pre-2023 form, both in terms of volume and efficiency. But is Worthy ready to take on that much offensive responsibility?
