Week 4 Walkthrough: The Bengals Tee Off

Pat Kerrane

02 Oct 2026

Welcome to the Week 4 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the fourth glorious football Sunday of 2026.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Jaguars at Bengals, 1 PM

Jaguars

Implied Team Total: 24.5

When looking at Trevor Lawrence's profile, a few things jump out.

First, he's been impressively accurate and on time despite attacking downfield. He has a 7% completion percentage over expected, with a fairly quick 2.75-second time to throw, while also supporting an aggressive 9.6 aDOT.

Second, Lawrence's 9.6 aDOT is quite high for a QB with a deep pass rate of just 7%. This tells us that Lawrence is consistently attacking the intermediate areas of the field, rather than dinking and dunking while peppering in deep shots.

And this is backed up by a third key element of Lawrence's profile. Lawrence has a 16% splash zone attempt rate—meaning 16% of his throws have been 10+ yards downfield and over the middle. Only Sam Darnold (16.3%) has a higher rate.

Lawrence now gets a Bengals defense that has protected the splash zone well this year, though. The Bengals have the lowest blitz rate in the NFL, while still managing to generate quick pressure. That is an effective combo that has helped drive better-than-expected defensive efficiency.

However, the Bengals' efficiency was boosted by turnovers in Week 1. Baker Mayfield had a strong success rate against them. They then got CJ Stroud without Nico Collins. They then faced Aaron Rodgers... and he had his best game of the season.

Trevor Lawrence's 2026 efficiency has been far stronger than the QBs the Bengals have seen so far... by quite a bit. Stroud, Rodgers, and Mayfield are all in negative EPA territory. Trevor Lawrence has an impressive 7.9 EPA per game with a strong 53% success rate.

Parter Washington is coming off a down game last week. He's clearly the No. 1 WR on the Jags, which is great news. But the Patriots were the first defense to actually treat him like a real-deal No. 1. They hit him with a 40% double-coverage rate, and his production suffered.

The Bengals are not double-covering at an especially high rate overall. In Week 1, they hit Emeka Egbuka with a 38% double-coverage rate. But they didn't have a No. 1 WR to worry about in Week 2, with Collins out. Last week, they left DK Metcalf mostly in single coverage (8%), and that wasn't a problem for them. Metcalf posted just 0.84 YPRR. After the start he's had, I doubt Washington sneaks up on them, though.

The good news is that the Bengals have played man coverage at a high rate, and Washington has been even better against man (3.69 YPRR) than he has against zone. Even better, Washington leads Jacksonville in both metrics. Because, to rewind a bit and underline a previous point, Washington has very clearly been the No. 1 option in the Jaguars' passing attack, and this is an attack that has been one of the best in the NFL.

Washington's struggles against double coverage are a bit of a concern, as is the Bengals' quick pressure rate against a Jaguars offensive line that ranks just 30th in pass block win rate. But the macro view is still quite bullish for Washington.

Because even if the Jaguars' passing efficiency dips this week, there's the potential for more passing volume. The Bengals are shaping up as a bit of a pass funnel, with all three opponents posting healthy pass rates and PROEs against them. This makes sense as teams are aware that Joe Burrow will be putting up passing production against them.

So far the Jags haven't been particularly aggressive on offense. Overall, they're profiling as a team that is dictating the run from ahead.

They've also posted negative PROEs in all three games. However, they have a neutral 0% rate on 1st-and-10 and have yet to be in sustained negative game script this year. If they end up chasing points as 2.5-point road underdogs, we could see a bit of a different approach. As a bet on him returning to his role as the engine of the passing attack, Washington is a low-end WR1.

Last week, I noted that Jakobi Meyers' lack of involvement was becoming a concern. He came alive against the Patriots, posting the best game of the Jaguars' WRs.

Meyers' 2026 profile still isn't great, but his 89% route participation stands out as a clear positive. Far from phasing out Meyers last week, Liam Coen emphasized him. Meyers is a WR4.

Brian Thomas... was phased out last week.

Per Liam Coen, the Jags "were playing in a little bit more 12 and also some of the things that we had Josh [Cameron] on specifically were things that we felt good about him doing within a role that he has.”

To the first point, Coen is talking about Thomas' snaps in regards to the 12 personnel usage. Nate Boerkircher and Quintin Morris combined for six routes last week. As a single factor, the Jags' TE2 usage was not the problem.

On his own, Josh Cameron wasn't a huge problem either. He posted just 28% route participation (nine routes).

Was Travis Hunter the driving factor? Nope. He had a minor impact once again with just four routes.

But last week, Parker Washington (94% route participation) and Jakobi Meyers (91%) barely left the field. And Brenton Strange also posted strong route participation for a No. 1 TE.

And, in combination, the secondary TEs, Hunter and Cameron, were at 59% route participation.

It's not really a big deal if the Jags plan to mix in some rotational guys going forward. Basically every team does that. But it becomes a problem for Thomas if he's the only one leaving the field when that happens.

Hopefully, last week's game was really an illustration of Thomas' lower-than-ideal floor, rather than an indication of how he'll be used this week. Given that this matchup should require more dropback volume from Jacksonville, it would be strange to see Thomas in such a limited role. When on the field, he has been a key part of the playcalling. It's not like he's not bringing value to the offense. Thomas is a boom/bust WR5.

Brenton Strange is, shockingly, a better bet for routes than Thomas at this point, but he's not doing a ton with those opportunities. He's a TE2 as a way to get a piece of what should be a productive passing attack.

On the ground, the Bengals have been solid defensively. But the Jaguars have been a very impressive rushing team, especially from a run-blocking perspective, where they were expected to be weak.

Bhayshul Tuten has helped drive the Jags' success on the ground. He has been one of the most consistent runners in football, churning out yards after contact for chunk gains. The breakaway runs haven't shown up yet, but his rushing profile has still been very impressive.

Unfortunately, Tuten's role remains underwhelming. He's in a split rushing role, and his receiving usage isn't nothing, but it's not very strong either. Eventually, I think Tuten will be rewarded by his coaches. After all, his QB is already hooking him up with 1-yard rushing TDs. But for now, he's a low-end RB2.

Chris Rodriguez is, quite literally, offering nothing as a receiver. He has yet to be targeted this year. His share of the carries is also weak.

Rodriguez is losing some work to Ameer Abdullah, which hurts.

Fortunately, LeQuint Allen is stealing routes, not carries. That hurts Tuten more than Rodriguez.

Rodriguez has been a very consistent runner, but his 50% success rate actually trails Tuten (51%). And he's profiling as a true short-yardage hammer rather than a consistent chunk play runner. There just isn't much here, outside of the hope for a TD plunge.

Bengals

Implied Team Total: 27

In Week 1, the Jaguars beat up on the Browns. But, ya know, it's the Browns.

However, Deshaun Watson has been better in the two weeks since. The Jags' defense showed up in Week 1.

Drake Maye has had a rough start to the year. But it was really more of a slow start... until he crapped out against the Jags. Maye needs to figure it out regardless of opponent. But the Jags' defense was also giving him trouble.

Bo Nix is the only QB who has been efficient against Jacksonville.

Interestingly, Nix runs counter to the trend. He was quite a bit better against Jacksonville than in his other matchups.

Ultimately, the Jags are probably more of a middling pass defense than a strong one, which simply had good games against Deshaun Watson and a struggling Drake Maye. Like last year, they're living on takeaways more than consistent success against the pass.

In 2025, they ranked just 14th in dropback success rate but sixth in EPA and seventh in DVOA. In other words, strong efficiency, but middling consistency. You get there by taking the ball away.

This year, that identity is even clearer in the early numbers.

Jacksonville is pressuring at a high rate, which should help them keep up their takeaways. However, they are also allowing big plays at the fourth-highest rate, and they aren't pressuring especially quickly.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has been getting the ball out very quickly this year with a time to throw of just 2.50 seconds.

I'm not necessarily betting against the Jags generating a turnover here. But I'm more interested in what happens when they don't generate big defensive plays.

Joe Burrow has not been very efficient or consistent this year. But his lack of consistency is really a result of his Week 2 matchup against the Texans. He's been very consistent in his other two games.

And Burrow is coming off a very strong game against the Steelers, with 14.2 EPA and a 56% success rate.

If tasked with moving the ball consistently through the air here, I expect Burrow to be up to the challenge. And from a production standpoint, Burrow also has volume on his side.

As usual, the Bengals have been operating with a clear lean to the pass, with a 4% PROE and an aggressive 8% PROE on 1st-and-10, which is tied with the Steelers for the highest in the NFL.

After a quiet Week 1, Ja'Marr Chase got back to producing as expected against the Texans. And he's coming off an even more efficient outing against the Steelers.

Chase now faces a defense that could coax some mistakes out of Burrow. But as long as Burrow can generate positive plays more often than not on strong passing volume, Chase still has a ton of upside. And with the Jags offense likely to push the Bengals, Chase could find himself in his first shootout of the season. He's an elite WR1.

Tee Higgins dropped off slightly in efficiency last week, but turned in his most productive game.

Higgins' profile is very strong, and he benefits from the same setup as Chase. And at this point, Higgins looks somewhat undervalued. He leads Chase in first-read target rate and YPRR with a significant lead in air yard share.

Chase is a better bet for targets and, ultimately, a better bet. But the Jaguars have been giving up big plays as well as creating them, and Higgins is a huge part of the offense in his own right. Higgins is a low-end WR1 here.

Behind the WRs, Mike Gesicki is still in his typical role.

Gesicki is likely to be in a part-time role once again, but he's on the field to catch passes, and dropbacks could be elevated this week. He's a low-end TE2.

On the ground, the Bengals have been blocking very well, while the Jags rank poorly in run stop win rate. However, the Jaguars defense has been tough to run on nonetheless.

Chase Brown is dominating touches for the Bengals, which you love to see.

Unfortunately, Brown has been unimpressive as both a runner and receiver. I have more hope for him as a receiver. The Bengals don't have another good option and are targeting Chase at a decent rate; he just hasn't capitalized yet. And even as a runner, Brown is going to have his days. There will be TD equity as the clear lead back in this offense. Brown is a low-end RB1 this week.

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Patriots at Bills, 1 PM

Patriots

Implied Team Total: 21

Drake Maye is coming off a truly rough game against the Jaguars. Maye was the least efficient QB of Week 3.

Maye's consistency wasn't quite as jarring. But he was weak there as well. This wasn't just a QB making some big mistakes. He was consistently poor.

For the season, Maye is down to QB31 in EPA per game and QB21 in success rate. It's been a truly concerning start to the season.

As I noted last week, part of the issue here is the offensive design. The Patriots aren't using play action or motion much, and they haven't been effective when doing so. This is a very conventional dropback offense. If Maye was playing like last year, that would probably cut it. But he's not, and the offense isn't hiding any of his issues.

The weapons are also a problem. The Patriots' offseason was supposed to be about them upgrading Maye's receivers. Instead, after AJ Brown's injury, the reality has been that Mack Hollins is the No. 1 option. Cutting Stefon Diggs and trading away Kayshon Boutte for pennies both look like self-inflicted wounds right now.

Interestingly, Maye's efficiency has been dreadful on first-read attempts. He's been excellent on non-first-read throws. And Maye isn't glued to his first read. He's trying to make plays outside of structure. As Maye-fan cope, this kind of works for me—it's not his fault; it's the offense. But this is also not ideal. Unless AJ Brown can spark the offense, the lack of an effective scheme could be a problem all year. Brown is also weeks away from returning.

In fairness to Hollins, he's coming off a strong game against the Jags. He's not the problem. The problem is that the Patriots are utilizing a reliable but unexciting role player as the engine of the passing attack.

Romeo Doubs is running routes at a similar rate to Hollins, and hasn't been as bad as he was in Week 1. Still, he's not delivering on his new contract.

Demario Douglas is also seeing similar playing time, despite operating as a pure slot WR.

Kyle Williams is seeing more routes as the season progresses. He's a rotational player trending toward a part-time role. If he can keep earning more playing time, he could be interesting as a deep threat. For now, he just adds fragility to the profiles of the top three WRs.

The good news is that the Patriots are facing a Bills defense that has been unimpressive in coverage. And even after last week, the Patriots' dropback success rate is a bit of a bright spot.

On the other hand, the Bills have been pressuring at a high rate this year, while the Patriots have struggled badly with both pressure rate and quick pressure rate.

If this season was the only sample we had on Maye, this would look like a very tough setup. He's a 6.5-point road dog and will likely face pressure again. However, Maye beat the Bills in Buffalo as part of an extremely efficient sophomore season. His efficiency has been bad enough that it's hard to expect a huge turnaround this week without Brown, but Maye should still bounce back from last week's brutal showing.

But it's not like the Bills are a total pushover on defense. Jared Goff did most of his damage in comeback mode, and they just handled a struggling Justin Herbert with relative ease.

Even if Maye improves, it's hard to be enthusiastic about his WRs. Hollins really has been the best real-life and fantasy option. He's sort of like the Patriots version of Kalif Raymond, except his usage is a lot easier to understand.

I still expect Doubs to emerge as a bigger contributor as the season progresses, but he's just a WR5, as is Hollins, with Douglas as a dart throw.

Hunter Henry's route participation has now been disappointing in two of three weeks.

Henry's overall profile is weak, to the point that the best thing I can really say about him is that defenses are trying to take him away. That shows some respect. Unfortunately, opponents have successfully shut him down, and it's hard to be a lot more optimistic moving forward. Henry is a TE2.

The Patriots' run game has also struggled so far. And although the Bills' run defense is not good, it's hard to envision the Patriots successfully grinding out a win, given that their own defense will likely struggle to contain Josh Allen.

Opponents have generally operated with a lean to the run against the Bills, but no one has actually posted a below-average pass rate so far.

The Patriots have been run-heavy in their two losses, but were actually quite aggressive against the Steelers. As long as they can adequately protect Maye, I expect them to operate with, at most, a slight lean to the run here; an improved passing attack is their only real shot at winning.

And even last week, the Patriots posted a 63% pass rate, their highest of the year. The Patriots are not likely to go with a true grind-it-out approach.

The Patriots backfield remains a split. TreVeyon Henderson had a slight lead in carries against the Jags, after benefiting from Rhamondre Stevenson's mini-benching in Week 2.