Overlooked Stats: Six Chunk-Play Artists Who Could Be a Life Raft if You Miss Out on the Top-Tier Quarterbacks
In fantasy football, gaining an edge means going beyond rankings and uncovering predictive stats that go overlooked. Legacy stats like receptions, yards, and past PPR output are solid but are also low-hanging fruit. Every bushy-haired grandpa with a fantasy football magazine who enters your draft room uses these. That means
Overlooked Stats: Nine Undervalued Chain Movers at Wide Receiver
In fantasy football, gaining an edge means going beyond rankings and uncovering predictive stats that go overlooked. Legacy stats like receptions, yards, and past PPR output are solid but are also low-hanging fruit. Every bushy-haired grandpa with a fantasy football magazine who enters your draft room uses these. That limits
A Framework for Correctly Applying Regression and Studying Outliers from 2024, Volume 3: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Welcome to Volume 3—the final edition of the TD regression series. In this edition, we’ll be analyzing WRs and TEs. In Volume 1, we used regression to better understand QB TD production, where high volume creates larger samples, smoothing out volatility and enhancing the signals. In Volume 2,
A Framework for Correctly Applying Regression and Studying Outliers from 2024, Volume 2: Running Backs
As we explored with QBs in Volume 1, regression analysis in fantasy football isn’t about predicting collapse. Instead, it's about recognizing when production will likely stabilize. TDs are inherently volatile since they are the rarest and highest-scoring element in fantasy scoring computation, making them prime for regression.
A Framework for Correctly Applying Regression and Studying the Outliers from 2024, Volume 1: Quarterbacks
I can’t write about regression to the mean in fantasy football without thinking of Ben Gretch’s Substack article, If I Never Hear the Word Regression Again, It’ll Be Too Soon. Blair Andrews’ Why You Shouldn’t Believe in Regression to the Mean plays on misconceptions about the
Quick Slant: MNF - This Incredibly Long Journey Through Attrition (One Last Haymaker)
Lions @ 49ers, Monday @ 8:15 PM I’m not saying Dan Campbell is a vengeful man, but I’m also not certain he wouldn't get a grin out of a little cosmic justice. The Cowboys were gifted a victory against his Lions late last year after a penalty
Quick Slant: SNF - Two Ouroboros-es-es for Christmas
Falcons @ Commanders, Sunday @ 8:20 PM The Ouroboros, an ancient symbol of a serpent devouring its own tail, represents the endless cycle of life, death, and renewal. It embodies the relentless rhythm of existence, where the past and future are forever intertwined, and nothing truly begins or ends. The Atlanta
Quick Slant: TNF - Where These Teams Might Belong Tomorrow
Seahawks @ Bears, Thursday @ 8:15 PM The magnitude of Thursday’s game might be a matter of who you ask; for Chicago, it is that moment, suspended in time before an inevitable impact—where there is no longer hope of avoiding the sickening crunch, the busted glass; there is only