Can the Sophomore RB Class Beat Upside Inflation?
So far this summer, I've dug into the best ball outlook for the rookie WR and rookie RB classes:
Pat Kerrane
Pat Kerrane
And while digging into the rookie RB best ball results, it dawned on me how impactful 2nd-year RBs have been over the years.
To date, all six Best Ball Mania winners have had a meaningful contribution from a rookie WR and at least one sophomore RB.
BBM Winning Sophomore RBs:
- BBM1 - Justin Herzig
- David Montgomery
- Tony Pollard
- BBM2 - Liam Murphy
- Jonathan Taylor
- BBM3 - Pat Kerrane
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- BBM4 - Farid Shaheed
- Kyren Williams
- BBM5 - LGREWE50
- Chase Brown
- BBM6 - Sam Sherman
- Blake Corum
With sophomore RBs having such an illustrious history in the tourna ment and with 2026 providing one of the most exciting crops of sophomore RBs in several years... I figured it would be worth diving deeper into the history of sophomore RBs in the tournament.
As I did for the rookie RBs, I used the 2021-2025 BBM data (courtesy of RotoViz's Underdog Advance Rate Explorer) to break the sophomore RBs into five groups. I'm looking only at RBs drafted 1,000+ times in Best Ball Mania.
- Group 1 - Legends
- True league-winning picks you'd have been happy to have on every team.
- Group 2 - Hits
- Added value above cost.
- Group 3 - Small Misses
- Not hits, but provided at least some production.
- Group 4 - Whiffs
- Picks that hurt teams, even if there were some occasional bright spots.
- Group 5 - Landmines
- The type of pick that was a gut punch to an otherwise good team.
Group 1 - Legends
Round 1-2 Draft Picks
Jonathan Taylor was an elite prospect and a legendary best ball hit as a rookie. But his sophomore season was truly special—he was a genuine must-have piece in BBM2, as both an advance rate smash and playoff contributor.
As a rookie, Taylor was impressively efficient. He posted 10.1 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per game. He was also highly consistent by both Next Gen's success rate, called rush percent over expected (ROE%), and in EPA-driven success rate (success rate). Taylor posted a 43% ROE% and a 44% success rate. These metrics measure consistency with different methodologies, but either way you slice it, Taylor was an extremely reliable rookie runner. Taylor was also a solidly efficient receiver with 1.39 YPRR. He also rated RB14 in ESPN's YAC score and RB13 in Next Gen's YAC over expected.
After a thoroughly impressive rookie year, Taylor's ADP jumped to the 1/2 turn. Turns out that was far too cheap.
In 2021, Taylor exploded for 22.9 RYOE per game, emerging as an all-time breakaway runner. Taylor was again highly consistent with a 42% ROE% and an elite 47% success rate. Taylor also retained solid receiving efficiency and production with 1.23 YPRR, an RB15 rating in YAC score, and RB14 in YACOE.
The end result was an insane 43% advance rate from the 1/2 turn, with six 20+point games, three 30+point games, and a peak performance of 51.9 half-PPR points. Taylor wasn't quite as dominant in the playoffs, but didn't disappear either, posting scores of 23, 10.8, and 17.4.
As a rookie, James Cook was a best ball bust. But heading into his sophomore season, Cook's ADP still rose from 106 to 85. And drafters weren't optimistic enough. He easily beat that cost and became an advance rate hammer. Cook then peaked with 35.1 points in Week 15. He took his foot off the gas in the final two weeks, but was otherwise a huge hit, rewarding drafters who stuck with his solid prospect profile, high-end draft NFL draft capital, and offensive environment.
Notably, Cook wasn't bad as a rookie; he just didn't get much opportunity. On 106 attempts, he posted 3.9 RYOE per game, with a 42% success rate (while falling short of the carry threshold for ROE%). Per ESPN, Cook rated surprisingly poorly as a receiver, ranking RB50 in YAC score and RB48 overall. But his 1.22 YPRR was solid enough.
Cook was a good prospect, but by 2nd-rounder standards, not an especially strong one—rating as an early 2nd-round rookie pick in my dynasty RB model. But entering 2023, the Bills cleared the way for Cook, allowing Devin Singletary to leave in free agency and bringing in Damien Harris as an early-down complement. Drafters viewed Cook as the No. 1 back in Buffalo, but clearly had doubts about that, pricing Cook in the early 8th-round.
Cook's Year 2 explosion was primarily driven by opportunity. Cook jumped from 5.9 carries per game to 13.9 and from 2.2 targets per game to 3.6. With 6.2 RYOE per game, a 43% ROE%, a 42% success rate, and 1.38 YPRR, his efficiency profile was a little better as a sophomore, but also pretty similar to his rookie season.
But as the Bills' clear-cut starter, Cook was a big-time advance rate hit who then smashed in Week 15. Good efficiency on a significantly bigger workload made him an excellent pick; in 2023, only Christian McCaffrey (5.6%) and Sam Laporta (5%) had a higher semi-finals advance rate than Cook (4.3%).
Round 3-4 Draft Picks
Rhamondre Stevenson was a clear hit as a rookie. His ADP then rose from 175 to 97, but Stevenson hit yet again.
As a sophomore, Stevenson's rushing workload improved, but only slightly. He jumped from 11.1 rushes per game to 12.4. And Stevenson was actually a less consistent runner. His ROE% dropped from 44% to 37%, and his success rate dropped from 47% to 43%. Fortunately, he retained his explosiveness, delivering 6.9 RYOE per game, up from 5.7. But overall, his rushing profile wasn't of the league-winning variety.
For Stevenson, the big Year 2 jump came in the receiving game. As a rookie, he posted 1.66 YPRR, flashing receiving potential. And, as a prospect (late-2nd tier), Stevenson popped as an underrated receiver. His 2.11 career YPPR is a 95th percentile mark.
As a sophomore, Stevenson's YPRR fell to 1.24, a meaningful drop from the 1.66 he hit as a rookie. But Stevenson was still efficient enough to deliver production on a bigger workload. And critically, Stevenson's receiving opportunity increased substantially. He jumped from 1.75 targets per game to 5.1 targets per game. Stevenson's 87 targets in 2022 remain a career high.
As a sophomore, Stevenson hit 15+ points seven times, peaking at 23.8 points in Week 15.
Like James Cook, Rachaad White disappointed a bit as a rookie but still rose in price with an improved path to production in Year 2.
This represented a leap of faith from drafters. As a rookie runner, White had been inefficient, posting -1.9 RYOE per game and weak consistency with a 34% ROE% and a 36% success rate.
White's receiving profile provided hope, though. In college, White was a very efficient receiver (2.59 YPRR). His receiving upside made him a strong bet entering the league (late-1st tier prospect). White then posted a respectable 1.12 YPRR as a rookie on an encouraging 3.8 targets per game.
Even with his rookie rushing red flags, White rose more substantially than Cook, from an ADP of 129 to 83. It still wasn't enough. White smashed his ADP with a 26% advance rate.
White's breakout was driven by opportunity and receiving ability. His YPRR increased slightly to 1.17. More importantly, he jumped from 3.8 targets per game to 4.6 and from 8.1 carries per game to 16.
The drafters who were worried about White's rushing efficiency were right. His RYOE declined in Year 2, falling from -1.9 per game to -6.5, and his success rate dropped from 36% to 31%. The yards White left on the table as a sophomore helped open the door for Bucky Irving in 2024. But as a 2023 fantasy pick, White was a legendary hit, operating as the Bucs' three-down starter. And, in no small part because of his high-end receiving role, White averaged 19.8 touches per game.
Round 5+ Draft Picks
Kyren Williams is an all-time best ball smash. In 2023, with an ADP of 204, he reached 20+ points six times.
Not only did Williams post a ridiculous 35% advance rate, but he was drafted on just 20% of BBM rosters; early summer drafters were not aware of how good a pick he was, leaving him completely undrafted. When Williams dropped 22 points in Week 15 and 16.4 points in Week 16, he was often on only one team in the pod, providing a massive advantage.
For good measure, Williams dropped 29.1 points in the final.
Williams fell to the 5th round of the 2022 NFL Draft but rates as a 3rd-round tier prospect in my RB model. In other words, Williams' college production looked to be undervalued by the NFL. There was upside if a team was willing to trust him. The problem with most prospects like that, though... is that doesn't usually happen. And so, as a fantasy bet, Williams entered the league as a speculative play, a premium dart throw type.
And as a rookie, Williams didn't flash a ton. He actually posted a concerning lack of explosiveness with -7.4 RYOE per game. But Williams was consistent, at least, with a 40% success rate. And his 0.97 YPRR was reasonable enough.
Entering Year 2, Williams was a bet on an underrated prospect who the Rams appeared to be intrigued by and against incumbent starter Cam Akers.
In 2022, Akers averaged -0.9 RYOE per game, with a 41% success rate, and 0.71 YPRR. Critically, Akers had also been benched during the 2022 season and placed on the trade block before reconciling with the team to close the year.
It was pretty clear that the Rams were hoping for more from their backfield in 2023. That then matched reports that Williams was expected to see an increased role. After Williams solidified his RB2 role in camp and was rested in the preseason (along with Akers), August drafters realized he was worth taking. But Williams never got expensive. He was available in the final rounds of drafts even into September.
In 2023, it only took until Week 2 for the Rams to bench Akers again, with Williams emerging as a sophomore bell cow. Williams jumped from 4.4 carries per game in 2022 to 19 in 2023.
As a receiver, Williams dropped from 0.97 to 0.63 YPRR. But with his targets per game rising from 1.4 to 4.0, Williams' impact as a receiver was still much stronger in Year 2.
Williams wasn't just a volume play. His small-sample rookie rushing workload proved misleading. Williams averaged 12.2 RYOE with a 43% ROE% and an elite 47% success rate. He was also a force at the goal line, totaling 15 TDs.
Notably, Williams only played 12 games in his second season... somewhat limiting the impact of one of the most impactful seasons we've ever seen.
Chase Brown, like Williams, didn't provide much to get excited about in his rookie season. On just 44 carries, he totaled -3 RYOE with an awful 25% success rate. As a receiver, he posted an absurd 4.46 YPRR, but ran only 35 routes, seeing just 1.9 targets per game.
But, also like Williams, Brown was an intriguing prospect who had opportunity in front of him. In Brown's case, Joe Mixon's departure opened up the starting job. Brown was competing with Zack Moss, coming off a career year in Indianapolis.
Moss was entering Year 5, already on his third team. With 9.2 RYOE and a 40% success rate in 2022 with the Colts, Moss was a threat. But there was also clearly upside for Brown to beat out a journeyman.
In a new system, Moss turned back into a pumpkin, delivering -66 RYOE on only 74 attempts, with an awful 27% success rate. Meanwhile, Brown emerged as a capable runner, with 4.2 RYOE per game, a 39% ROE%, and a 38% success rate. Brown was a bit of a boom/bust runner, but reliable enough to maintain control over Moss. Brown was also a capable receiver, with 1.06 YPRR.
Ultimately, though, Brown was a bet on a cheap starter on a great offense, and that is exactly what he delivered on. Brown averaged 14.3 carries and 3.9 targets per game. With solid efficiency, he was an advance rate hero.
Brown then posted 24.8 points in Week 15, becoming a quarter-finals hammer. He fell off to 12.4 in Week 16 and 11.1 in the final, but Brown was still one of the best picks of 2024.
I sometimes conflate Isiah Pacheco's rookie emergence with his Year 2 breakout. The rookie emergence was fun and was accompanied by an August hype train, but he didn't truly move the needle until Year 2, when he jumped from 7.8 half-PPR points per game to 13.9.
Ironically, Pacheco was much more efficient as a rookie than he was as a sophomore. In 2022, he posted 5.7 RYOE per game, a 45% success rate, and 1.01 YPRR. In 2023, he dropped to 4.8 RYOE per game, with a 39% success rate and 0.83 YPRR.
However, after impressing as a rookie, Pacheco was given significantly more opportunity in 2023. His carries per game spiked from 10.4 to 15.9, and he jumped from 1.0 target per game to 3.4. And on the efficiency front, Pacheco was efficient enough to hold down the starting job. His ROE% actually rose slightly from 43% to 45%.
Notably, Pacheco's efficiency dropped again in 2024-2025, such that in the years since 2023, he's never even matched his declining sophomore efficiency, much less his 2022 peak. But for 2023 drafters, that didn't matter.
Pacheco crushed his 8th round ADP with a 22% advance rate and added a Week 17 spike week for good measure.
