2026 Legendary RB Upside in the Dead Zone
Last week, I published my 2026 Legendary RB Scenarios for the first two rounds of the draft.
Pat Kerrane
Pat Kerrane
Typically, that's as far as I go with the legendary RB framework. As I cover in this year's article, the area of the draft known as the dead zone is really about a lack of upside, more than increased risk. Round 1-2 RBs are, in fact, quite risky bets. It's the upside that makes them worth it. If an early RB hits, they have the potential to provide a level of positional separation that's hard to find at the other positions... or later in the draft at RB.
However, this year offers a very interesting group of RBs in Rounds 3-5 (per FFPC Main Event ADP). And so, I'll be diving into these profiles, specifically focused on the potential for underpriced upside.
Do we need legendary upside for these RBs to pay off? We do not. An RB hitting 18+ points per game is a clear win in Round 3. And something in the 15-16 points per game range is pretty sweet in Round 5.
Therefore, I'm going to be focused more on what's realistic for these backs as an upside case rather than trying to unnecessarily stretch to hit a 23+ points per game ceiling that—even with a time machine—is a hard future to find.
Quick Links
- Jeremiyah Love
- Javonte Williams
- Breece Hall
- Kyren Williams
- Travis Etienne
- D'Andre Swift
- Cam Skattebo
- David Montgomery
- Bucky Irving
- Quinshon Judkins
- Bhayshul Tuten
- Jadarian Price
- TreVeyon Henderson
Jeremiyah Love
Upside Scenario
In Week 7, Jeremiyah Love highlights why those foolish enough to victory lap fading him were wrong. Early in the season, Love operates as a committee back. He's vultured at the goal line on a bad team and has trouble seeing enough targets to pay off as a receiving-driven play. Ultimatey, he just looks overpriced. He's producing reasonably for a 7th or 8th rounder. But his 3rd round price is a drag on rosters.
But, hosting Denver on October 25th, the Cardinals are more proactive in getting Love involved as a receiver. And he proves why he went No. 3 overall, turning seven receptions into 60 yards and a TD. He adds 50 yards and another TD on the ground.
Love closes the season much stronger than he began it.
Week 17 comes with a different lesson, this time for the NFL rather than fantasy drafters. The lesson is clear—taking an RB in the top 10 can be a mistake, especially when the franchise isn't ready. Fortunately, for Love drafters, the Raiders are the ones learning that lesson. Ashton Jeanty leaves Arizona with just 67 scoreless yards from scrimmage. Love is a completely different story. He operates as an explosive play machine, scoring twice from distance, catching four passes, and totaling 134 yards.
Love's season comes with ups and downs, but for managers willing to bet on his talent, he, in the end, delivers as a league winner.
How To Play It
Love profiles as the type of player who probably won't be a weekly cornerstone of your fantasy lineup... at least not right away. He's on a bad team and faces decent immediate competition from Tyler Allgeier.
But if Love can't distance himself from Allgeier this year, the Cardinals truly made a massive error in selecting him No. 3 overall.
And although Love's TD upside is definitely limited on the Cardinals and paired with a RB who vultured Bijan Robinson last year, he has enough receiving upside to deliver strong fantasy value once established as the Cardinals' lead runner.
It could be a bit of a bumpy ride early in the season, but this is the type of bet-on-talent play that we want to be making in the dead zone.
With Love dropping in best ball drafts, he's become more of a priority for me, but I don't view him as a must-draft player. I'm at 11% on Underdog and 13% on DraftKings.
I actually like him more in redraft, where I think it'll be easy enough to ride out a committee role as he gets back to full health to start the year. Once he starts rolling—and I do think he'll get rolling—I expect to be quite comfortable putting him in starting lineups. You'll want to be mindful of your overall lineup construction when drafting Love, as he'll likely do his best work later in the season. But overall, he's a target.
Best Ball Recommendation: Target.
Managed League Recommendation: Target.
Javonte Williams
Upside Scenario
On January 3rd, 2027, Williams drafters can't believe their eyes. Surely, it's some sort of New Year's hangover?
But no, Williams has in fact done the impossible. Against the Giants, he's posted 18 carries for 97 yards and a TD, with six receptions for another 33 yards. His 25 PPR points are crucial to securing championships. But the unbelievable part is that he has exactly matched his statline the last time the Cowboys hosted the Giants (Week 2 2025).
The key for Williams is that rather than fading down the stretch like he did in 2025, he maintains strong production the entire season.
Williams is still limited as a receiver, with just 0.80 YPRR. But as the locked-in lead back in a great offense, that is ultimately not an issue for drafters who got him in the 3rd round... or even later.
How To Play It
Williams is very much a bet on the Cowboys offense, and on the status quo holding on Williams as the lead runner. Hopefully, the status quo won't hold in the receiving game, where Williams posted just 0.40 YPRR last year. But, as illustrated above, Williams can literally double his receiving efficiency and would still profile as a bet on rushing production and TDs.
But with Jaydon Blue now out of the picture and Malik Davis in place as his backup... Williams' setup is remarkably similar to 2025.
In best ball, Williams has been a boring but rather obviously good pick at the 3/4 turn, which is where he was going for most of the summer. I got overly nervous about Williams during the peak Blue hype and haven't drafted him much since his price has risen, yet still have 13% on Underdog and 10% on DraftKings.
In redraft, I think Williams is a bit less impactful. He's unlikely to crush, but instead provide high-end RB2 production if all goes well. That's helpful, but also the type of production that you may be able to cobble together throughout the season with later picks and sharp waiver moves.
Best Ball Recommendation: Target when he falls to the 3/4 turn.
Managed League Recommendation: Fade in Round 3. Draftable in Round 4.
Breece Hall
Upside Scenario
When the Jets kick off their season in Tennessee, Breece Hall is ready to go. Working back from injury, the Jets are careful not to overwork Hall, but he still has a healthy workload of 12 carries and four receptions.
And that ends up being the story for the early part of the year. Hall doesn't see more than 15 carries until Week 7. Braelon Allen is the primary rushing complement, and he runs well. Isaiah Davis isn't much of a factor, rendering the backfield more of a two-man backfield than the "three-headed monster" Aaron Glenn spoke of in the offseason. But still, the Jets are able to keep Hall fresh.
That changes when the Dolphins come to town, though. In Week 7, Hall sees 20 carries and six receptions. And, in totaling 204 yards from scrimmage and two TDs, he demonstrates pretty clearly that the Jets have been underutilizing their best RB.
By this point in the season, the Jets offensive line is really starting to click. Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou are easily the best young tackle duo in NFL, and the Jets begin to see the run game as the key to their first winning season since 2015. In Week 8, the Jets put together a home win over the Raiders on the back of 22 carries from Hall (and another nine from Braelon Allen). With wins over the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders, the Jets are now a .500 club.
This ends up being the high point of Aaron Glenn's Jets tenure. They follow up their Week 8 win with four straight losses. Dropping games to the Chiefs, Bills, and Chargers is understandable. But when they lose in Miami in Week 12, Woody Johnson has seen enough. Glenn is told to extend his Miami trip as the Jets head home for their Week 13 bye.
Glenn's firing is understandable, but ultimately, from Jets fans' perspective, a colossal mistake. Headed into Week 14, the 4-8 Jets were in striking distance of a franchise QB. When they upset the visiting Broncos, hopes of a top-5 pick are dashed.
Breece Hall drafters are in a much better headspace. The team looks competitive under intirim head coach Frank Reich, who has kept Geno Smith in place at QB. Even better, when Frank Reich called Breece Hall his "bellcow" in August, he wasn't kidding.
Hall is essesntial to the Jets' win over Denver, recording seven catches for 84 yards and a TD, in addition to 14 carries for 67 yards.
Under Reich, Hall's rushing workload stays fairly steady. He ultimately totals 267 carries. That bests his previous career high of 243 (2025), but would have been just RB8 in 2025, tied with Travis Etienne. It's a healthy workload, but, on its own, not bellcow level. The key shift is actually more related to the overall offense. Reich is more willing to pass than Glenn was. After posting a -8% PROE in 2025 and a -6% mark to begin 2026, the Jets shift to a -3% PROE to close the year. They're still a run-first operation, but when they fall behind, they no longer salt away their opponent's win for them. They actually fight back.
Hall is an essential part of the Jets' new identity. He underlines that fact in league-winning style in the Jets' Week 17 home win over the Vikings. Hall totals 11 receptions for 113 yards, setting a career high in receiving yards and nearly matching his 2023 career high of 12 receptions.
In the end, Hall falls one reception short of a career high, totaling 75 on the season. But as part of a far more competent offensive environment than in the Zach Wilson 2023 days, Hall jumps from 17 points per game to 20.
In the end, the 7-10 Jets fall one game short of the playoffs. After Combine conversations make it clear that the cost of trading up for one of the top QBs is off the table, they sign Mac Jones to a three-year deal.
